IN018-06
Assessing and responding to complex risk in a changing climate

Thursday, 10 December 2020: 10:50
Virtual
Nicholas Simpson, University of Cape Town, Africa Climate and Development Initiative, Cape Town, South Africa, Katharine J. Mach, University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States, Andrew Constable, Australian Antarctic Division, Hobart, TAS, Australia, Jeremy J Hess, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, United States, Ryan Hogarth, Oxford Policy Management, Oxford, United Kingdom, Mark Howden, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia, Judy Lawrence, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand, Robert J Lempert, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, United States, Veruska Muccione, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, Brendan Mackey, Griffith Climate Change Response Programme, Griffith University, Gold Coast, QLD, Australia, Mark G New, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa, Brian O'Neill, University of Denver, Denver, CO, United States, Friederike Elly Luise Otto, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, Andy Reisinger, Daniela N Schmidt, University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom, Sonia I Seneviratne, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland, Steven Strongin, Goldman Sachs, New York, United States, Maarten van Aalst, Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, Netherlands, Edmond Totin, Université Nationale d'Agriculture du Benin, Ecole de Foresterie et d' Ingénierie du Bois, Ketou, Benin and Christopher Trisos, University of Cape Town, African Climate and Development Initiative, Cape Town, South Africa
Recorded Presentation
Abstract:
Real-world experience of complex human-natural systems underscores the interconnected nature of risks associated with climate change. Yet, assessment and management of climate risk poorly integrates responses to climate change nor the complexity of multiple hazards, exposures, vulnerabilities and responses interacting with each other. Further, risks themselves interact, but their potential interactions are rarely considered. Understanding these interconnected risks requires a better framework of complex risk under climate change. Drawing on evidence of the ways that risk is framed in recent assessments and emerging literature we propose three categories of complex risk to help overcome these challenges. Building on the categories established here, future approaches to risk assessment under climate change can be extended to the following dimensions. Firstly, Category 1 sets out how the broad range of potential responses to climate change integrate with other determinants of risk including the potential for positive outcomes. Category 2 allows for greater consideration of interactions within determinants of risk and the severity of risk that emerges. Finally, Category 3 outlines the complexity of interactions between risks. These three categories better capture the nature of risk under climate change and will help structure research, assessment, and management of complex risk.
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