Modelling Forced Migration In South Sudan: A Coupled Model Incorporating Weather And Conflict Effects

Abstract:

South Sudan has been the scene of a major conflict for several years, and many people have been displaced to adjacent countries such as Ethiopia and Uganda. Humanitarian support is limited, and an effective forecast of where displaced people are likely to arrive can help NGOs and governments to optimally apply their humanitarian support resources. Our previously developed migration model [1] can be used for this purpose, and also supports the definition of counterfactuals and the modelling of specific policy decisions. In this talk we will present a range of major extensions of this model, which allow us to more realistically approximate population displacement in the region around the White Nile. Primarily we propose a coupling mechanism which introduces a greater level of detail in this area and incorporates precipitation and flooding effects. To illustrate the relevance of this coupling, the White Nile is known to become up to 80 kilometers wide in some areas during extreme flooding, making traversal without proper equipment impossible. We will present our development approach, which involves meteorological data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), as well as migration models at different spatial scales and a conflict generation model (see [2]), and share the preliminary results from our simulations.

[1] http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/23/1/2.html

[2] https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC40007.2019.9004683