The Evolution of Global Refugee Movements: An Exploration of Possible Climate Drivers

Abstract:

Earlier work has pointed to the decreasing importance of contiguity in the flow of refugees between countries, suggesting that refugees appear to be moving greater distances in recent years. Some of this may be due to the saturation of refugees in contiguous destination countries as well as their ever-evolving refugee policies. This presentation examines the evolution of refugee flows over time looking at the various drivers of refugee flows including geo-political, security, economic, and environmental factors. Based on a classification of the top ten refugee countries of origin from 2011-2016, we look at the dynamics of refugee movements on a regional basis focusing in on variation of the various drivers across geographic regions. Particular attention is paid to the variation in refugee flows due to possible environmental drivers because of climate change.