A081-03
Covid19’s disparate impact on transportation and emissions

Wednesday, 9 December 2020: 20:38
Virtual
Pawlok Dass1, Kevin R Gurney2, Bhaskar Mitra3, Yang Song1, Geoffrey S Roest2 and Taha Moiz4, (1)Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, United States, (2)Northern Arizona University, School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Flagstaff, AZ, United States, (3)Northern Arizona University, School of Informatics, Computing and Cyber Systems, Flagstaff, AZ, United States, (4)Arizona State University, School of Sustainability, Tempe, AZ, United States
Recorded Presentation
Abstract:
No economic activity has probably been more profoundly impacted by the Covid19 outbreak than the transportation sector. Distance between individual human beings, or the lack of it has been one of the leading causes of the rapid spread of Covid19. Variables related to transportation have thus provided valuable insights into the human response to this outbreak, including serving as a proxy for economic activity. Moreover, post outbreak, drastic reductions in atmospheric pollutants have been observed, especially in urban areas, pointing to large reductions in vehicular movement.

Aiming to assess the impact of Covid19 on the economic activities and emissions, we analyze in real time, county level Covid19 daily new case data along with daily mobility data of individuals in addition to vehicular miles travelled, at the county scale. We also compare these with weekly fuel sales and monthly personal consumption data, at the US scale. Statistical analyses, including correlations and lags at different spatial scales reveal how the US residents have modified their economic activities in response to the Covid19 outbreak at its onset, peak and plateau stages. The mobility data reveal the degree to which people have been venturing outside their home, i.e. isolating at home or going for a walk or a long road trip. The vehicular miles travelled data, apart from providing further insight into the mobility of the population, allow us to compute the change in emission of vehicular pollutants including CO, CO2, NOx, SOx, Hydrocarbons and Particulate Matters. The fuel sales and personal consumption data, ultimately allow the validation of economic proxies with actual economic data.

Preliminary results show that in early March, 2020, at the onset of Covid19 in the USA, the country responded uniformly. A sharp increase in the Covid19 cases was accompanied by a similar decline in traffic volume. But since then the uniformity started to break down and show strong regional patterns. From mid-April, traffic volume started going up everywhere. While states in the north-east, especially New York and New Jersey managed to keep their Covid19 case numbers low, the southern and south-western states saw large increases in positive cases. This probably points to success stories and cautionary tales when it comes to resumption of ‘normal’ economic activities.

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