COVID19: Challenges in predicting air-borne viruses impacting human health

Abstract:

The etiological pathways of novel coronavirus (COVID19 thereafter), impacting the entire globe, are still emerging. Significant knowledge gaps exist in our understanding of how the pandemic has evolved, but most importantly, how this respiratory virus spread, and how will this pandemic end? We will present our current understanding on the processes of the spread of this virus, which can lead to informative decision-making strategies to determine steps required to end the pandemic, and with a long-term goal of development of prediction, algorithms to combat future respiratory outbreaks. One of the potential mechanisms, and thus the hypothesis of the proposed research, is that the virus can become airborne (aerosol transmission) or can attach to large water droplets (droplet transmission) in the environment (inside built infrastructure or outdoor air) given favorable ambient moisture conditions. While large droplets tend to settle to the ground within 1 to 3m, the aerosolization poses a major threat and a possible transmission route to humans under prevailing ambient, weather, and climatic conditions. Using earth observations in conjunction with the socio-demographical information, we will present a pathway for the prediction of viruses in the ambient and built environments.