GH001-0004
Interaction between COVID-19 and natural disasters: results from an agent-based epidemiology model
Monday, 7 December 2020
Poster
Maximillian S. Van Wyk de Vries, University of Minnesota, Saint Anthony Falls Laboratory, Minneapolis, MN, United States; University of Minnesota, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and Limnological Research Center, Minneapolis, MN, United States and Lekaashree Rambabu, National Heath Service (NHS) Tayside, Dundee, United Kingdom
Abstract:
The co-occurrence of natural disasters during the COVID-19 pandemic is inevitable. COVID-19 has highlighted the importance of lockdown measures, social distancing and other mitigation strategies for the spread of infection. Occurrence of a natural disaster and associated evacuation can disrupt this response. The impact of natural disasters and evacuations on the spread of COVID-19 remains poorly understood. We use a new, agent-based epidemiology model to evaluate the effect of natural disaster occurrence on COVID-19 spread. In this study, we modify the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) framework to include additional states relevant to COVID-19, such as asymptomatic and severe infection cases. We use an agent-based model structure, with transitions between the above states evaluated stochastically. This model setup incorporates geospatial datasets and accounts for the movement of individuals within the model domain. In addition, the probabilistic set-up provides a quantification of variability in possible outcomes.
We conduct 100 runs for 35 theoretical scenarios, varying the timing and duration of the natural disaster. Out of those, 92 % of scenarios show that the occurrence of a natural disaster during an infection outbreak increases the diseases-related fatalities. 42% of scenarios show an increase of more than a factor of 1.5. The increase in total number infected and deaths is highest in runs where the natural disaster occurs close to the peak in infections. We build a model scenario based on evacuation plans for an eruption of Vesuvius volcano in Campania, Italy. For a population of 5.8 million, mean deaths increase from 8.5 (IQR 7.9-8.9) per 100,000 for model runs with no eruption to 68.5 (IQR 12.1-133.3) per 100,000 for an eruption close to peak in infections. Our findings show that natural disasters have the potential to increase the spread of COVID-19, highlighting the need for careful planning and mitigation strategies.
