Human Stampede and Crush Fatalities: Size Scaling and Prediction

Abstract:

Using methods developed for earthquake forecasting (i.e., b-value), and building on Lewis Richardson's study of the statistics of deadly quarrels, the fatality record of 123 global stampede and crush events between 1900 and 2017 is analyzed and found to exhibit power law frequency-size scaling. Using a statistical approach developed and applied to earthquakes, the parameters of the scaling relationship are used as the basis for probabilistic forecasting of the recurrence interval of events with 100 and 1000 fatalities. Completeness of the compiled record appears to improve through time, with more events of all sizes recorded in more recent decades. Based on the 2003 to 2017 record, events with 100 or more fatalities have a global recurrence interval of every 1.3 years (±1 standard deviation 1.0 to 1.8 years) and events with 1,000 or more fatalities have a global recurrence interval of every 7.4 years ( ±1 standard deviation range of 4.7 to 9.1 years). The three countries with the most documented fatal stampede and crush events are, in decreasing order, India, United States and Saudi Arabia, while the countries with the most documented fatalities, in decreasing order, are Saudi Arabia, India, and Iraq. The primary conclusion of this work is that the frequency-size distribution of life loss associated with stampede and crush fatalities worldwide follows power law scaling.