SA007
All Models Are Wrong but Some Are Useful: A Famous Quote from George Box—Does This Apply to Modeling the Space Environment? I

Tuesday, 8 December 2020: 10:30-11:30
Virtual
Primary Convener:  Cheryl Y Huang, Air Force Research Laboratory, Kirtland AFB, NM, United States
Convener:  Anthony J Mannucci, NASA, Pasadena, CA, United States
Primary Liaison:  Cheryl Y Huang, Air Force Research Laboratory, Kirtland AFB, NM, United States
Chairs:  Cheryl Y Huang, Air Force Research Laboratory Albuquerque, Albuquerque, NM, United States and Anthony J Mannucci, NASA, Pasadena, CA, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Cheryl Y Huang, Air Force Research Laboratory Albuquerque, Albuquerque, NM, United States
10:30
SA007-01
Defining space environment modelling requirements (Invited) (666045)
Richard T Parris, Air Force Research Laboratory, Space Vehicles Directorate, Kirtland AFB, NM, United States
10:34
SA007-02
Quantifying Useful Wrongness: The Crucial Role of Model Metrics and Validation in Bringing Heliophysics Models from Creation to Application (Invited) (665218)
Katherine Garcia-Sage1, Hyunju KIM Connor2, Anna DeJong3, Alexa Jean Halford4, Maria M Kuznetsova5, Michael Warren Liemohn6, M. Leila Mays5, Dogacan Su Ozturk7, Lutz Rastaetter4, Robert J Redmon8 and Robert M Robinson9, (1)Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (2)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (3)Catholic University of America, Physics, Washington, DC, United States, (4)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (5)NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (6)University of Michigan, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (7)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, (8)NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Geophysical Science Branch - Solar and Terrestrial Physics, Boulder, CO, United States, (9)NASA Goddard, Catholic University of America, Washington DC, DC, United States
10:38
SA007-03
How Empirical Models Continue to be Useful for Space Environment Modeling (Invited) (665213)
Vince Vincent Eccles, Space Dynamics Laboratory, North Logan, UT, United States
10:42
SA007-04
Research to operations requirements: a forecasting centre perspective (Invited) (665183)
Sophie A. Murray, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
10:46
SA007-05
Uncertainty budgets for credible science can be computed (Invited) (664203)
Roger Ghanem, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States
10:50
SA007-06
What comes after Chapter 15? (Invited) (667016)
Charlton Lewis, II, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, Defense Sciences Office, Arlington, VA, United States
10:54
Discussion
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