Building Confidence in Future Projections of Regional Precipitation: Identifying Dynamic Sources of Certainty and Uncertainty
Building Confidence in Future Projections of Regional Precipitation: Identifying Dynamic Sources of Certainty and Uncertainty
Session ID#: 122587
Session Description:
Confidence in future projections of anthropogenically-forced changes in regional precipitation requires a physical understanding of the underlying mechanisms and is a crucial first step toward mitigating and adapting to these changes. However, challenges associated with multiple relevant scales, combined with large intermodel spread, give rise to medium or low confidence in future projections of precipitation in many regions. As a foundation for building confidence in regional precipitation changes, this session will highlight the state of current understanding about dynamic contributors to regional precipitation changes, from synoptic-scale circulations like storm tracks, monsoons, atmospheric rivers, and extratropical cyclones, to local-scale convective processes. There will be a particular emphasis on identifying where dynamic contributions can serve as sources of certainty in future projections, as well as where they remain significant sources of uncertainty, with the aim of identifying key areas for future progress.
Index Terms:
3305 Climate change and variability [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3319 General circulation [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3354 Precipitation [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
Primary Convener: Samuel J Smith, Indiana University Bloomington, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Bloomington, IN, United States
Conveners: Jian Lu, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States and Tiffany Shaw, The University of Chicago, Department of Geophysical Sciences, Chicago, IL, United States
Primary Liaison: Samuel J Smith, Indiana University Bloomington, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Bloomington, IN, United States
See more of: Atmospheric Sciences