Diagnostic tools and metrics for improving subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction

Session ID#: 124135

Session Description:
Prediction skill at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time scale is generally low, particularly for precipitation. Unified modeling systems spanning from weather to climate are believed to have the greatest potential for fully realizing potential predictability at S2S scales. However, systematic model biases due to inadequate representations of key physical processes (such as convection, aerosol-cloud interactions, boundary layer dynamics, and atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land coupling) likely limit realizing potential predictability from sources of climate variability such as ENSO, MJO, QBO, SSW, diabatic heating over ocean, and land-surface and Arctic sea ice feedbacks.

We welcome contributions that advance the diagnostics and metrics of Earth System models for improving S2S prediction. Studies applying observations to evaluate model performance and guide model development at the process level are particularly encouraged. We also seek showcases of community software that illustrate model deficiencies in key processes that have a significant impact on S2S prediction skill.

Co-Sponsor(s):
  • AMS: American Meteorological Society -
  • EGU: European Geosciences Union -
  • WCRP: World Climate Research Programme -
Index Terms:

3305 Climate change and variability [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3337 Global climate models [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3339 Ocean/atmosphere interactions [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]


Primary Convener:  Benjamin P Kirtman, University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States
Conveners:  Matthew Janiga, US Naval Research Laboratory, Marine Meteorology Division, Monterey, CA, United States, Yan Xue, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States and Jessie Carmen, NOAA, Weather Program Office, Washington DC, United States
Primary Liaison:  Benjamin P Kirtman, University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States
See more of: Atmospheric Sciences