GC063
MultiSector Dynamics: Science & Modeling for Societal Transformation

Session ID#: 156711

Session Description:
Societal goals such as enhancing ecological resilience, achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, and managing risks from climate change involve major transitions in integrated systems (water, transport, energy, etc.). These challenges require dynamic and adaptive action pathways that balance diverse societal objectives and account for complex feedbacks, uncertainties, and thresholds (e.g., ecological tipping points). The session seeks to develop a MultiSector Dynamics (MSD) community focused on advancing our understanding of the co-evolution of human and natural systems over time and developing the next generation of tools needed to support major societal transformations. MSD research occurs within a perspective that bridges sectors (e.g., energy, water, land, transportation, economy, etc.) and scales (spatial, temporal, and institutional) to better understand coupled human and natural systems.  This session broadly invites submissions addressing these challenges and contributing promising new modeling tools.
Index Terms:

1622 Earth system modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1817 Extreme events [HYDROLOGY]
6309 Decision making under uncertainty [POLICY SCIENCES & PUBLIC ISSUES]


Primary Convener:  Patrick M Reed, Cornell University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ithaca, NY, United States
Conveners:  Jennifer F Morris, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA, United States, Jan H. Kwakkel, Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft, Netherlands and Enayat Moallemi, Deakin University, School of Life & Env. Sciences, Melbourne, Australia
 
Challenges and Opportunities for Uncertainty Analysis in Multi-Sector Systems (Invited) (1047129)
Vivek Srikrishnan, Cornell University, Biological & Environmental Engineering, Ithaca, NY, United States
 
Mapping and Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Recreational Ecosystem Services Using Machine Learning and Big Data (1068745)
Kyle Manley, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States and Benis Egoh, University of California Irvine, Irvine, United States
 
Exploring how MultiSector Dynamics Influence the Evolution of the U.S. Electricity System Power Plant Landscape Under a Range of Future Global Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios (1072800)
Kendall Mongird, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, Chris R Vernon, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States, Jennie Rice, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, United States, Zarrar Khan, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States and Konstantinos Oikonomou, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, United States
 
Vulnerability in the Colorado River Basin: a critical review of vulnerability analyses to inform the renegotiation of Lake Mead operation policy (1111837)
Nathan Bonham1,2, Joseph R Kasprzyk2,3 and Edith A Zagona1,2, (1)University of Colorado Boulder, Civil Environmental & Architectural Engineering, Boulder, United States, (2)Center for Advanced Decision Support for Water and Environmental Systems, Boulder, United States, (3)University of Colorado Boulder, Civil Environmental & Architectural Engineering, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Global Change Explorer – a Web-based Tool for Investigating Complexities of Global Change (1118856)
Slobodan P. Simonovic, University of Western Ontario, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, London, ON, Canada
 
Integrated Energy Planning for Hydrogen and Hydrogen-based Fuels and Chemicals: State of Knowledge and Current Developments (1128894)
Jannik Haas1, Rebecca Peer1, Hans-Christian Gils2, Wided Medjroubi3, Manuel Wetzel2, Alaa Alhamwi3, Joan Flores1, Stella Nadine Steidl1, Shanta Persad1, Rafaella Canessa4, Rodrigo Palma-Behnke5 and Christian Breyer6, (1)University of Canterbury, Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, Christchurch, New Zealand, (2)German Aerospace Center, Networked Energy Systems, Stuttgart, Germany, (3)German Aerospace Center, Networked Energy Systems, Oldenburg, Germany, (4)University of Canterbury, Civil and Natural Resources Engineering,, Christchurch, New Zealand, (5)University of Chile, Santiago, Chile, (6)Lappeenranta University of Technology, Lappeenranta, Finland
 
Incorporating the Environmental Benefits of Cellulosic Biomass and Adequate Stakeholder Coordination into the Bioeconomy Cycle Can Fill the Price Gap for Cellulosic Bioeconomy Emergence (1138359)
Pan Yang, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, DOE Center for Advanced Bioenergy and Bioproducts Innovation, Urbana, IL, United States, Ximing Cai, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, United States and Madhu Khanna, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Department of Agriculture and Consumer Economics, Urbana, IL, United States
 
Consequences of Planning for High Adoption of Uncertain Carbon Dioxide Removal Technologies (1151819)
Matilyn Bindl, University of Wisconsin Madison, Nelson Institute, Madison, WI, United States, Morgan Edwards, University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, United States and Yiyun Ryna Cui, University of Maryland College Park, Center for Global Sustainability, College Park, MD, United States
 
A System-of-Systems Approach to Societal Challenges of the Anthropocene (1154961)
John C Little, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Blacksburg, VA, United States
 
Quantifying the Impact of Participant Override Behavior on a Summer Demand Response Program (1156645)
Michael Craig1, Parth Vaishnav2,3 and Pamela Wildstein3, (1)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (2)Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, United States, (3)University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States
 
A Historical Pathways Approach for Coastal Adaptation: The Case of Folly Beach, South Carolina (1162498)
Tess Doeffinger, University of Delaware, Disaster Research Center, Newark, DE, United States
 
MultiSector Urban Dynamics are a Critical Part of Climate Solutions (Invited) (1166626)
Christa Brelsford1, Melissa R Allen1 and Brett Bass2, (1)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, (2)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, United States
 
Quantifying the Compounding, Co-Existing Nature and Inequities of Physical and Transition Risks Across the United States (1171193)
C Adam Schlosser1, Cypress Frankenfeld2, Shelli Orzach2, Sebastian David Eastham3, Xiang Gao1, Angelo Gurgel1,4, Alyssa McCluskey2, Jennifer F Morris1, Sergey Paltsev1, John M Reilly1 and Kilian Rouge5, (1)Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA, United States, (2)Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, United States, (3)Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Laboratory for Aviation and the Environment, Cambridge, United States, (4)Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, United States, (5)L'Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France
 
Exploring the co-evolution of cropping choices and groundwater depletion using an agent base crop modeling - groundwater cost curve approach (1178530)
Stephen Ferencz, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States and James Yoon, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, United States
 
Contribution of Urban Policies to Thailand’s Decarbonization: A Multisector City-Scale Modeling Approach (1179213)
Taryn Waite, Sha Yu, Meredydd Evans, Zarrar Khan, Maridee Weber, Leeya Pressburger, Siddarth Durga, Siwa Msangi and Michael Westphal, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States
 
Environmental and Health Consequences of Automated Trucking (1179303)
Parth Vaishnav, University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, Aniruddh Mohan, Princeton University, Princeton, United States and Yizhou Tian, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States
 
Using financial contracts to facilitate increased flexibility of water allocation institutions during drought (1189533)
Harrison Bray Zeff, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, United States, Antonia Hadjimichael, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, Department of Geosciences, University Park, United States, Patrick M Reed, Cornell University, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ithaca, NY, United States and Gregory W Characklis, Gillings School of Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Chapel Hill, NC, United States
 
New insights into the relationship among energy transitions, economic development, and human wellbeing (1192999)
Kangkang Tong and Shuyu Sun, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China