GC064
MultiSector Dynamics: Uncertainty Characterization for Coupled Natural-Human Systems
Session ID#: 157271
Session Description:
Multi-sector and coupled natural-human systems often feature complex adaptive dynamics, including feedbacks and tipping points, and involve many uncertainties. However, models of coupled natural-human systems often fail to characterize uncertainty and its propagation across systems. Uncertainty characterization plays an important role in understanding dynamics in these systems and projecting their behavior under future socioeconomic and environmental conditions. It is therefore an essential component of MultiSector Dynamics (MSD) research, which aims to advance our understanding of the co-evolution of human and natural systems over time. This session broadly invites contributions addressing the challenge of uncertainty characterization for systems which bridge sectors (e.g., energy, water, transportation) and scales (spatial, temporal, and institutional) to better understand their dynamics and improve decision-making. We welcome contributions broadly addressing uncertainty characterization and quantification and risk for coupled systems, including but not limited to the probabilistic quantification of uncertainty in coupled natural-human systems, the development of outcome-oriented scenarios, or hybrid approaches, and analyses of system dynamics under uncertainty.
Index Terms:
1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1873 Uncertainty assessment [HYDROLOGY]
1990 Uncertainty [INFORMATICS]
4328 Risk [NATURAL HAZARDS]
Primary Convener: Vivek Srikrishnan, Cornell University, Biological & Environmental Engineering, Ithaca, NY, United States
Conveners: Jonathan Lamontagne, Tufts University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Medford, MA, United States, Stefano Galelli, Singapore University of Technology and Design, Pillar of Engineering Systems and Design, Singapore, Singapore and Riddhi Singh, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Department of Civil Engineering, Mumbai, India
A new scenario framework for the Multi-Sector Dynamics and related communities (Invited) (1044191)
Brian C O'Neill, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States, Jennifer F Morris, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA, United States, Jonathan Lamontagne, Tufts University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Medford, MA, United States, Karen Fisher-Vanden, Pennsylvania State University, Agricultural Economics, Sociology, and Education, University Park, PA, United States and Marshall A Wise, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, United States
Large Ensemble Diagnostic Evaluation of Hydrologic Parameter Uncertainty in the Community Land Model Version 5 (CLM5) (1100373)
Hongxiang Yan1, Ning Sun2, Hisham Eldardiry3,4, Travis Thurber2, Patrick M Reed5, Keyvan Malek6, Rohini Gupta5, Daniel Kennedy7, Sean C Swenson8, Zhangshuan Hou2, Yanyan Cheng2 and Jennie Rice9, (1)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Energy and Environment Directorate, Richland, WA, United States, (2)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, (3)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, United States, (4)Cornell University, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ithaca, NY, United States, (5)Cornell University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ithaca, United States, (6)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (7)NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States, (8)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, United States
Sensitivity of Coastal Adaptation Costs and Decisions to Sea Level and Socioeconomic Uncertainties (1132045)
Tony E Wong, Rochester Institute of Technology, School of Mathematical Sciences, Rochester, United States, Lisa Rennels, University of California Berkeley, Energy and Resources Group, Berkeley, CA, United States, Frank Cooper Errickson, Princeton University, School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton, CA, United States; Princeton University, School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton, United States, Vivek Srikrishnan, Cornell University, Biological & Environmental Engineering, Ithaca, NY, United States, David Anthoff, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States and Klaus Keller, Dartmouth College, Thayer College of Engineering, Hanover, United States
Information Theoretic Approaches to Characterize Uncertainty in Computational Models of Coupled Human and Natural Systems: Insights from an Integrated Model Predicting Water Quality in Lake Champlain under Alternate Hydro-Climatic, Land Use, And Nutrient Management Conditions (1148337)
Asim Zia1, Patrick J Clemins2, Scott Turnbull2, Panagiotis D. Oikonomou3, Andrew W. Schroth4 and Donna Rizzo5, (1)University of Vermont, Department of Community Development and Applied Economics & Department of Computer Science, Burlington, VT, United States, (2)University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, United States, (3)Colorado State University, Colorado Water Insitute, Fort Collins, CO, United States, (4)University of Vermont, Department of Geology, Burlington, VT, United States, (5)University of Vermont, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Burlington, VT, United States
