GC027
Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change and Extreme Weather and Climate Events

Session ID#: 157502

Session Description:
Monitoring dangerous anthropogenic interference on the climate system is critical to informed decision making regarding economies, human health, and ecosystems as the planet continues to warm. In particular, weather and climate extremes (e.g., heavy precipitation, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, and heat waves) pose an outsized contribution to climate change risk and impacts. Formal detection and attribution studies provide a rigorous framework for understanding how anthropogenic forcing has altered both mean climate and extreme events. This session invites contributions that assess the detection and/or attribution of anthropogenic climate change and weather and climate extremes on regional or global scales. Contributions on developing new data sets and methodology (such as machine learning) for detection and attribution of climate change and extreme events are also invited.
Index Terms:

1626 Global climate models [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1637 Regional climate change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
3305 Climate change and variability [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]

Primary Convener:  Huanping Huang, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States
Conveners:  Mark Daniel Risser, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States and Michael F Wehner, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States
 
Observed impacts of anthropogenic climate change in natural and human systems in the Andes: detection and attribution study (Invited) (1042464)
Ana Elizabeth Ochoa-Sánchez1, Dáithí Stone2, Fabian Drenkhan3, Daniel Emilio Mendoza Siguenza Sr4, Ronald Gualán4 and Christian Huggel5, (1)Universidad del Azuay, TRACES (Institute for the transdisciplinary study of complex socioecological systems), Cuenca, Ecuador, (2)National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd, Wellington, New Zealand, (3)Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, Lima, Peru, (4)Universidad de Cuenca, Cuenca, Ecuador, (5)University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
 
A methodology for attributing extreme extratropical cyclones to climate change: the case study of storm Alex 2020 (1053236)
Mireia Ginesta1, Pascal Yiou1, Gabriele Messori2 and Davide Faranda3, (1)LSCE Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-Sur-Yvette, France, (2)Uppsala University, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden, (3)LSCE Laboratoire des Sciendes du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-Sur-Yvette, France
 
Anthropogenic Aerosols Mask Increases in US Rainfall by Greenhouse Gases (1056038)
Mark Daniel Risser1, William Drew Collins2, Michael F Wehner1, Travis Allen O'Brien3, Christopher J Paciorek4 and Huanping Huang5, (1)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States, (2)Berkeley Lab and UC Berkeley, Berkeley, United States, (3)Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Climate & Ecosystem Sciences Division, Berkeley, CA, United States, (4)University of California, Berkeley, CA, United States, (5)Dartmouth College, Department of Earth Sciences, Hanover, NH, United States
 
Effect of Baseline Period on Quantification of Climate Extremes over the United States (1058596)
Natalie Paige Thomas1,2, Allison Collow1,2, Amin Dezfuli3,4 and Michael G Bosilovich5,6, (1)University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD, United States, (2)Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, United States, (3)Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, MD, United States, (4)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, United States, (5)Earth Sciences Division, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (6)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, United States
 
Human-caused Snowpack Declines over the Northern Hemisphere (1066912)
Alexander Gottlieb, Dartmouth College, Graduate Program in Ecology, Evolution, Environment and Society, Hanover, NH, United States and Justin S Mankin, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Ocean and Climate Physics, Palisades, United States; Dartmouth College, Department of Geography, Department of Earth Sciences, Hanover, United States
 
Changes in atmospheric dynamics and their impact on detection and attribution (Invited) (1073731)
Gabriele C Hegerl1, Andrew P. Ballinger2 and Andrew P Schurer1, (1)University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9, United Kingdom, (2)University of Edinburgh, School of GeoSciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
 
Enhanced Sea Level Extremes in Coastal Indonesia during 2010-2017: Roles of Anthropogenic Forcing and Decadal Climate Variability (1075166)
Weiqing Han1, Lei Zhang2, Gerald Meehl3, Shoichiro Kido4, Tomoki Tozuka5, Yuanlong Li6, Michael J McPhaden7, Aixue Hu8, Anny A Cazenave9, Nan A Rosenbloom3, Gary Strand3, Jason West10 and Wen Xing6, (1)University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)University of Colorado Boulder, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, United States, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)University of Tokyo, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of Science, Bunkyo-ku, Japan, (5)The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, (6)University of Colorado Boulder, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, (7)NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA, United States, (8)NCAR, Boulder, United States, (9)Laboratoire d'Etudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiale, Observatoire Midi Pyrénées, LEGOS-CNES-CNRS-IRD-UPS, Toulouse, France, (10)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, United States
 
Fire and Rain: Regional Detection and Attribution of Spatiotemporal Hydrologic and Wildfire Trends (1083936)
Laura Elisabeth Queen1, Dáithí Stone2, Samuel M Dean2 and James A Renwick1, (1)Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand, (2)National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd, Wellington, New Zealand
 
Anthropogenic Influence on Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation Variations Over India (1087879)
Anokha Shilin, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, Mumbai, India, Subimal Ghosh, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Department of Civil Engineering, Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, Mumbai, India and Subhankar Karmakar, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Environmental Science and Engineering Department, Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, Centre for Urban Science and Engineering, Mumbai, India
 
Threshold-Exceedance-Amount Indicators: New Metrics for Detecting and Tracking Weather and Climate Extremes under Climate Change (1088087)
Gottfried Kirchengast1, Stephanie J. Haas2 and Juergen Fuchsberger2, (1)University of Graz, Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (WEGC) and Institute of Physics, Graz, Austria, (2)University of Graz, Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (WEGC), Graz, Austria
 
Contemporary Climate Change Velocities Over India and its Biogeographic Zones (1093015)
Disha Sachan1, Pankaj Kumar2 and Md. Saharwardi2, (1)Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Bhopal, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Bhopal, India, (2)Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Bhopal, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Bhopal, India
 
Changes in Long Term Global Surface Temperature Trends from 1850 to Present (1099131)
John Torres1, Amy Wu1 and Claudie Beaulieu2, (1)University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, United States, (2)University of Southampton, Ocean and Earth Science, Southampton, United Kingdom
 
Detection and Attribution of Historical Sea Level Changes over the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool Region (1108407)
Dhrubajyoti Samanta1, Vedant Vairagi1, Kristin Richter2, Elaine McDonagh2,3, Kristopher B Karnauskas4, Nathalie Goodkin1,5, Lock Yue Chew1 and Benjamin Peter Horton1, (1)Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore, (2)NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bergen, Norway, (3)National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, United Kingdom, (4)University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, United States, (5)American Museum of Natural History, New York, United States
 
Attribution of Climatic Disaster Mortality to Climatic and Socioeconomic Changes. (1109096)
Dipesh Chapagain1,2, Luna Bharati3, Reinhard Mechler2 and Samir K.C.2, (1)University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF), Bonn, Germany, (2)IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, (3)International Center for Water Resources and Global Change (ICWRGC), Koblenz, Germany
 
Total Least Squares Bias when Explanatory Variables are Correlated (1122211)
Ross McKitrick, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada
 
Impact-Based Attribution of Heatwaves (1126771)
Annika Hjelmstad, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States and Amir AghaKouchak, University of California, Irvine, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Irvine, CA, United States
 
Rising Temperature of Ukraine due to Russia-Ukraine war 2022 (1143474)
Priyanka Gupta and Dericks P Shukla, Indian Institute of Technology Mandi, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Mandi, India
 
Attribution of Climate Change on Seasonal and Annual Streamflow in 12 Central Asian Catchments (1150133)
Iulii Didovets1, Bijan Fallah1, Aliya Nurbatsina2, Fred Hattermann1 and Valentina Krysanova1, (1)Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany, (2)Institute of Geography and Water Security Science, Almaty, Kazakhstan
 
Extreme Event Detection Techniques and their Impact on Global Heat Wave Trends (1155649)
Jose Cortes, Nora Linscheid, Markus Reichstein and Ana Bastos, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Department Biogeochemical Integration, Jena, Germany
 
Reconstruction of Missing Observational Climate Data in Extreme Events Datasets Using Artificial Intelligence (1156378)
Étienne Plésiat, Johannes Meuer, Hannes Thiemann, Thomas Ludwig and Christopher Kadow, DKRZ German Climate Computing Centre, Hamburg, Germany
 
Attributing the External Forcings Responsible for Sea Surface Temperature Changes over Indian Ocean (1157225)
Dileepkumar R, KSMDB College, Sasthamcotta, Department of Mathematics, Kollam, India, Arulalan T, Indian Meteorological Department, New Delhi, India and Krishna M Achutarao, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi, India
 
Regional attribution of 2021 Western North American heat wave (1168400)
Elizaveta Malinina, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, ECCC, Victoria, BC, Canada and Nathan P Gillett, CCCma, Victoria, BC, Canada
 
Human Influence on the 2021 British Columbia Floods (1184413)
Nathan P Gillett1, Alex J. Cannon1, Elizaveta Malinina2, Markus Schnorbus3, Faron S Anslow4, Qiaohong Sun4, Megan Kirchmeier-Young5, Francis W Zwiers4, Christian Seiler6, Xuebin Zhang7, Gregory M Flato8, Hui Wan9, Guilong LI10 and Armel Castellan11, (1)Environment and Climate Change Canada, Climate Research Division, Victoria, BC, Canada, (2)Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, ECCC, Victoria, BC, Canada, (3)University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada, (4)University of Victoria, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, Canada, (5)Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Canada, (6)Environment and Climate Change Canada, Climate Processes Section, Victoria, BC, Canada, (7)Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada, (8)Environment Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada, (9)Environment Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada, (10)Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada, (11)Environment and Climate Change Canada, Meteorological Service of Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
 
Application of Topological Data Analysis to Detect Extreme Cold and Heat Waves (1184659)
Matthew Dixon, Microsoft Turing, Montreal, Canada, Huikyo Lee, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Caltech, Altadena, CA, United States and Yulia Gel, University of Texas, Mathematical Sciences, Richardson, TX, United States
 
Observed Spatiotemporal Variation of Freeze Events Across the Midwestern and Northeastern United States (1185282)
Yao Xue, Southern Illinois University Carbondale, Carbondale, IL, United States and Justin T Schoof, Southern Illinois University, School of Earth Systems and Sustainability, Carbondale, IL, United States
 
Estimating The Probability Of An Extreme Weather Event In The Past, Present and Future (1198689)
Richard L Smith, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, United States
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