A095
Tropical Cyclones: Observations, Modeling, and Predictability - Today and into the Future
Session ID#: 157820
Session Description:
Tropical cyclones are one of the most destructive weather systems on Earth and have significant social and economic impacts. In this session, we solicit abstracts on observational analysis and modeling studies that help to advance our understanding of the physics, dynamics, variability, and predictability of tropical cyclones. In particular, abstracts are encouraged on tropical cyclone formation, structure, track, intensity change; and the theory, physics, and projections of future tropical cyclone characteristics.
Index Terms:
3315 Data assimilation [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3360 Remote sensing [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3372 Tropical cyclones [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]
Primary Convener: Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Urbana, United States
Conveners: Michael M Bell, Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, United States, Patrick Harr, Naval Postgraduate School, Pacific Grove, CA, United States and Robert F Rogers, NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL, United States
Investigation of the role of Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions on Unusual Characteristics of Severe Indian Ocean Cyclone Nisarga (1041976)
Ipsita Putatunda, Senior Project Associate, CSIR-Fourth Paradigm Institute, Bangalore, India, Rakesh V., Principal Scientists, CSIR-Fourth Paradigm Institute, Bangalore, India and Gyanendra Nath Mohapatra, Principal Scientists, CSIR-4PI, Bangalore, India
Impacts of a Weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on Tropical Cyclone Activity in a Warming Climate (1042963)
Emma Lilly Levin1, Josh Studholme1, Alexey V Fedorov2, Wei Liu3 and Natalie Burls4, (1)Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States, (2)Yale University, New Haven, United States, (3)University of California Riverside, Riverside, CA, United States, (4)George Mason University, Fairfax, United States
Sensitivity of COAMPS-TC Deterministic and Ensemble Forecasts to Microphysics (1044869)
William Komaromi, Naval Research Lab Monterey, Marine Meteorology, Monterey, CA, United States, James D Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA, United States, Yi Jin, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA, United States and Jon Moskaitis, Naval Research Lab Monterey, Marine Meterology, Monterey, CA, United States
Tropical Cyclone Frequency: The Role of Seeds and the Large-Scale Environment (Invited) (Invited) (1048983)
Christina M Patricola1, Emily Bercos-Hickey2, Derrick Kwadwo Danso3, Philip Klotzbach4, Daniel J. Cassidy3, William Drew Collins5 and Burlen Loring6, (1)Iowa State University, Geological & Atmospheric Sciences, Ames, United States, (2)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, United States, (3)Iowa State University, Ames, United States, (4)Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States, (5)Berkeley Lab and UC Berkeley, Berkeley, United States, (6)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Computational Research Division, Berkeley, United States
Estimating the Risk of Extreme Wind Gusts in Tropical Cyclones Using Idealized Large-Eddy Simulations and a Statistical-Dynamical Model (Invited) (1049671)
Daniel P Stern, Naval Research Lab Monterey, Marine Meteorology, Monterey, CA, United States, George H Bryan, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Mesoscale & Microscale Meteorology Division, Boulder, CO, United States, Chia-Ying Lee, Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States and James D Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA, United States
Spatio-temporal analysis of typhoon eye diameters (1052775)
Namiko Toriyama, Ochanomizu University, Atsugi, Kanagawa, JAPAN, Tsubasa Kohyama, Ochanomizu University, Department of Information Sciences, Tokyo, Japan and Hiroaki Miura, Graduate School of Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
All-Sky Radiance Assimilation Impact on Tropical Cyclone Inner Core Structure and Rapid Intensification (1056297)
Yi Jin, Naval Research Lab Monterey, Marine Meteorology, Monterey, CA, United States, Qingyun Zhao, Naval Research Laboratory, Seaside, California, United States, Nancy L Baker, Marine Meteorology Division, Naval Research Lab, Monterey, CA, United States, James D Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA, United States, David Ryglicki, ACME Atron-O-Matic, LLC, Orlando, United States, Robert G Nystrom, NCAR, Boulder, United States, Xingchao Chen, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences, University Park, PA, United States and Yunji Zhang, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, University Park, PA, United States
Influence of African Easterly Wave Suppression on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity in a Convection-Permitting Model (1060220)
Derrick Kwadwo Danso, Iowa State University, Ames, United States, Christina M Patricola, Iowa State University, Geological & Atmospheric Sciences, Ames, United States and Emily Bercos-Hickey, University of California Davis, Davis, United States
Contrasting Responses of Atlantic and Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (1060867)
Huanping Huang, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States, William Drew Collins, Berkeley Lab and UC Berkeley, Berkeley, United States, Christina M Patricola, Iowa State University, Geological & Atmospheric Sciences, Ames, United States, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain and Paul Aaron Ullrich, University of California Davis, Land, Air & Water Resources, Davis, CA, United States
The 11-year solar cycle modulates the occurrence of off-season super typhoons in the western North Pacific (1068943)
Yong-FU Lin, University of California Irvine, Irvine, United States, Jin-Yi Yu, Univ California Irvine, Department of Earth System Science, Irvine, CA, United States and Chau-Ron Wu, NTNU National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan
General Properties of Tropical Cyclone Stalling in the Western North Pacific and Insights into the Causes (1086148)
Lujia Zhang, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Interdisciplinary Program Office, Individual Interdisciplinary Program (Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science), Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Mengqian Lu, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hong Kong, Hong Kong and Tat Fan Cheng, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Hong Kong, China
Uncovering the Intrinsic Intensity-Size Relationship of Tropical Cyclones (1088256)
Jie Sun1, Ming Cai2, Guosheng Liu1, Ruikai Yan3 and Da-Lin Zhang4, (1)Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, United States, (2)Florida State Univ-Meteorology, Tallahassee, FL, United States, (3)Florida State University, Tallahassee, United States, (4)University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD, United States
The Governing Dynamics and Variability of Recurving EPAC Tropical Cyclones (1089740)
Alexander Mitchell, University at Albany State University of New York, Albany, NY, United States and Lance F Bosart, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Albany, NY, United States
Structure of seed affect its ability to survive planetary Rossby waves on a barotropic β-plane (1093301)
Kuan-Yu Lu, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, United States and Daniel Robert Chavas, Purdue University, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, West Lafayette, IN, United States
An experimental comparison of three tracking algorithms for tropical and extra-tropical cyclones (1093868)
Lin Yan1, Chunyong Jung2, William Pringle3, Jiali Wang4 and Veerabhadra Rao Kotamarthi1, (1)Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, United States, (2)Argonne National Laboratory, Environmental Science Division, Lemont, United States, (3)Argonne National Laboratory, Environmental Science Division, Argonne, IL, United States, (4)Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, United States
A Vertically Resolved Analysis of Radiative Feedbacks associated with Tropical Cyclones in a GCM (1094075)
Bosong Zhang1,2, Brian J. Soden2 and Gabriel Andres Vecchi3, (1)Princeton University, Princeton, United States, (2)University of Miami, Miami, United States, (3)Princeton University, Department of Geosciences and The High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton, United States
The Impact of MJO on Tropical Cyclones over the north Indian Ocean (1103915)
Rahul Raghudhas1, Kuttippurath Jayanarayanan1 and Arun Chakraborty2, (1)Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Centre For Oceans, Rivers, Atmosphere and Land Science, Kharagpur, India, (2)Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Centre for Oceans, Rivers, Atmosphere and Land Sciences, Kharagpur, India
Intensification of Tropical Cyclones before Landfall over Bay of Bengal during Post Monsoon Season (1103987)
Arun Kumar, Indian Institute of Technology, Bhubaneswar, School of Earth Ocean and Climate Sciences, Khordha, India, Arkaprava Ray, IIT BHUBANESWAR, SCHOOL OF EARTH OCEAN AND CLIMATE SCIENCES, Khordha, India and Sourav Sil, Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar, Bhubaneswar, India
Investigation of the Impact of Geophysical Parameters Modulating the Recent Rise in Hurricane Activity in the Atlantic Ocean (1106035)
Sidha Sankalpa Moharana, Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar, School of Earth, Ocean and Climate Sciences, Jatni, Odisha, India and Debadatta Swain, School of Earth, Ocean and Climate Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar, Jatni, Odisha, India
The Relationship between Sea Surface Temperature and North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Precipitation over Ocean and Land. (1107838)
Samantha Hallam1, Gerard McCarthy1, Xiangbo Feng2, Simon A Josey3, Elizabeth Harris4, André Düsterhus1, Stephen Ogungbenro1 and Joel Hirschi3, (1)National University of Ireland Maynooth, Kildare, Ireland, (2)University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom, (3)National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, United Kingdom, (4)University of Southampton, Physical Oceanography, Southampton, United Kingdom
Exploring the Relationship between Tropical Cyclone Precipitation and Sea Surface Temperature on Different Time Scales (1110401)
Alyssa M Stansfield, Stony Brook University, School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Stony Brook, NY, United States and Kevin A Reed, Stony Brook University, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook, NY, United States
A Simple Diagnostic for Eyewall Replacement in Tropical Cyclones Based on Wind-Pressure Relationship (1113114)
Ping Lu1, Long Yang2, Danyang Wang1, Jishi Zhang1, Dingchi Zhao1 and Yanluan Lin3, (1)Tsinghua University, Department of Earth System Science, Beijing, China, (2)School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China, (3)Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
Relating Lightning Activity to the Convective Evolution of Pre-Genesis Tropical Disturbances (1113786)
Justin W. Whitaker, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, NASA Postdoctoral Program, Huntsville, United States, Roger Allen, Jacobs Space Exploration Group, Hunstville, United States and Patrick T. Duran, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, United States
Status of Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) Development: Initial Operational Capability and Future Priorities (1120421)
Xuejin Zhang, NOAA/AOML, Miami, United States, Zhan Zhang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD, United States, Avichal Mehra, National Centers For Environmental Prediction-Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, United States, Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD, United States, Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL, United States and Frank Marks, NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Key Biscayne, FL, United States
Sea spray effect on microphysics and dynamics of maritime convection and tropical cyclones (1120504)
Alexander Khain, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Jerusalem, Israel, Jacob Shpund, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States and Daniel Rosenfeld, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
Tropical Cyclone Moist Static Energy Structure in Idealized Simulations and Dropsonde Observations (1134366)
Jacob Carstens, Pennsylvania State University, Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, University Park, United States, Michael Kopelman, Florida State University, Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Tallahassee, United States and Allison A Wing, Florida State University, Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Tallahassee, FL, United States
Effects of unique Marine Heat Wave ocean structure changed on Tropical cyclone intensity (1135005)
Hwan Young Choi, Korea Maritime and Ocean University, Ocean Science and Technology School, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South), Myung-Sook Park, KIOST Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, Busan, South Korea, Hyeong-Seog Kim, Korea Maritime and Ocean University, Ocean Science and Technology School, Busan, South Korea and Seonju Lee, Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, Busan, South Korea
Laboratory measurements of the wind stress at high wind speeds (1141858)
Naoya Suzuki1, Naohisa Takagaki2, Santa Sasaki3, Kosuke Nishitani3, Takumi Hamaguchi3, Kazuki Nishiumi4 and Ryota Hayashi4, (1)Kindai University, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Osaka, Japan, (2)University of Hyogo, Himeji 671-2280, Japan, (3)Kindai University, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Higashiosaka, Japan, (4)University of Hyogo, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Himeji, Japan
Leveraging reanalysis data and physics-based modeling to reconstruct tropical cyclone sizes and storm surges from 1950-Present (1149910)
Avantika Gori1, Ning Lin1, Benjamin A Schenkel2 and Daniel Robert Chavas3, (1)Princeton University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton, NJ, United States, (2)NOAA/OAR National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, United States, (3)Purdue University, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, West Lafayette, IN, United States
Evaluating Variations in Tropical Cyclone Precipitation using Machine Learning Techniques (1150085)
Laiyin Zhu, Western Michigan University, Department of Geography, Environment, and Tourism, Kalamazoo, MI, United States and Pascual Aguilera, Western Michigan University, Physics, Kalamazoo, United States
Rapid Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensities over the Coastal Oceans: A Global Perspective (1155984)
Devanarayana Rao Mohan Rao1,2, Brian Dzwonkowski1,3 and Severine Fournier4,5, (1)University of South Alabama, School of Marine and Environmental Sciences, Mobile, United States, (2)Dauphin Island Sea Lab, Dauphin Island, AL, United States, (3)Dauphin Island Sea Lab, Dauphin Island, United States, (4)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, United States, (5)California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States
Global Calculations of Tropical Cyclone Return Periods and an ACE-like Risk Metric (1157300)
Rick D Russotto1, Maria Caffrey2, Margaret Powell1, Chiara Lepore1, Elia Schneider1, John G Dwyer3, Abed Qaddoumi1, Linh Dinh4 and Michael Simonetti1, (1)Gro Intelligence, New York, NY, United States, (2)Gro Intelligence, Denver, CO, United States, (3)Gro Intelligence, Portland, OR, United States, (4)Gro Intelligence, Chicago, IL, United States
Investigating the Relationships between TC Structure, Intensity, and Intensification Rates (1160265)
Eleanor Casas, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, United States and Michael M Bell, Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, United States
The Influence of ENSO on Future Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity (1161171)
Teryn Mueller, Cedar Falls, Iowa, UNITED STATES, Christina M Patricola, Iowa State University, Geological & Atmospheric Sciences, Ames, United States and Emily Bercos-Hickey, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, United States
The Physical and Biochemical Response due to Three Sequential Tropical Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal (1164363)
Abhishek Kumar, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Centre for Oceans, Rivers, Atmosphere and Land Sciences, Kharagpur, India, Dr. Arun Chakraborty, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Centre for Oceans, Rivers, Atmosphere and Land Sciences, Karagpur, India and Biplab Sadhukhan, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, India
Assessing Internal Constraints of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using A Simple Diagnostic (1167243)
Ping Lu, Tsinghua University, Department of Earth System Science, Beijing, China, Renzhi Jing, Princeton University, Princeton, United States, Long Yang, School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China and Yanluan Lin, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
Tropical cyclone potential size (1168916)
Danyang Wang, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, United States, Yanluan Lin, Tsinghua University, Department of Earth System Science, Beijing, China and Daniel Robert Chavas, Purdue University, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, West Lafayette, IN, United States
The Influence of Radiation on the Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensification (1174651)
Shun-Nan Wu, University of Oklahoma, Oklahoma, United States, Brian J. Soden, University of Miami, Miami, United States, Ghassan Alaka, NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Key Biscayne, FL, United States and David S Nolan, University of Miami, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Miami, FL, United States
Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Modulations by MJO and ENSO in CESM2 (1176869)
Hui Li1, Jadwiga Richter1, Chia-Ying Lee2 and Hyemi Kim3, (1)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, (3)Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, United States
Novel In-situ Microphysical Observations in Tropical Cyclones (1185581)
Michael M Bell1, Alex DesRosiers2, Chaehyeon Chelsea Nam1, James D Doyle3, Jason Dunion4, Robert F Rogers5 and Jonathan Zawislak6, (1)Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, United States, (2)Colorado State University, Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, CO, United States, (3)NRL, Monterey, CA, United States, (4)University of Miami and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL, United States, (5)NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL, United States, (6)University of Miami/CIMAS, NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, United States
Mid-level moisture observed in hurricanes from multi-GNSS Airborne Radio Occultation (1186126)
Bing Cao, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, Jennifer S Haase, UCSD, La Jolla, CA, United States and Michael J Murphy, UCSD, La Jolla, United States
Machine Learning for Predicting Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensity Changes from Passive Microwave Satellite Observations and Model Forecast (1186316)
Svetla M Hristova-Veleva1, Ziad S Haddad2, Randy C Sawaya3, Alexander Zuzow3, Tomislava Vukicevic4,5, Peggy Li3, Brian Knosp2, Quoc A Vu2 and Joseph Turk3, (1)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States, (2)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States, (3)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States, (4)University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia, (5)Faculty of Physics, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
Simulating Tropical Cyclones: past, present and future (1190816)
Pavan Harika Raavi1, Jung-Eun Chu2, Axel Timmermann3, Sun-Seon Lee3 and Kevin J Walsh4, (1)IBS Center for Climate Physics, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea, (2)City University of Hong Kong, School of Energy and Environment, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, (3)Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, South Korea, (4)University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, Parkville, Australia
Relation between Lightning Activities and the Intensity Development of Western North Pacific Typhoons (1191356)
Mitsuteru Sato1, Yukihiro Takahashi2, Hisayuki Kubota1 and Glenn Vincent Lopez3, (1)Hokkaido University, Faculty of Science, Sapporo, Japan, (2)Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan, (3)Advanced Science and Technology Institute, Manila, Philippines
A Race to Intensify: Competing Influences From Coastal Downwelling and Vertical Ocean Mixing on Hurricane Intensity in NOAA’s Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (1192463)
Lewis J Gramer, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies Miami, Miami, FL, United States, Ghassan Alaka, NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Key Biscayne, FL, United States, Jun Zhang, University of Miami, Miami, United States, Andrew Hazelton, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies Miami, Miami, United States and Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL, United States