H117
Water and Society: Adaptive management of coupled human-natural systems confronting change

Session ID#: 158121

Session Description:
The impacts of long-term change on water systems often manifest as short-term management challenges. For example, increases in the frequency of extreme events in future decades will require adaptively changing operational control and response plans. Consequently, society’s ability to adapt to long-term global change is inexorably linked to its short-term adaptive capacity. Bridging this scale gap in the management of coupled human-natural systems remains an unresolved scientific challenge. The nature and source of relevant uncertainties differ across scale, challenging traditional planning methods.  Moving beyond traditional uncertainty approaches, emerging work instead focuses on developing flexible physical and human systems that actively adapt and respond to new information.  In this session, we solicit novel contributions in adaptive management on topics including: (1) climate adaptation; (2) uncertainty and sensitivity analyses for vulnerability assessments; and (3) reducing the impacts of nonstationary extreme events on water, energy, agricultural, and ecological systems.
Index Terms:

1807 Climate impacts [HYDROLOGY]
1857 Reservoirs (surface) [HYDROLOGY]
1873 Uncertainty assessment [HYDROLOGY]
1880 Water management [HYDROLOGY]

Primary Convener:  Jonathan Lamontagne, Tufts University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Medford, MA, United States
Conveners:  Julianne Quinn, University of Virginia, Engineering Systems and Environment, Charlottesville, VA, United States, Sarah Fletcher, Stanford University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford, CA, United States and Jonathan D Herman, University of California Davis, Davis, United States
 
Seeing River Futures: Moving from uncertainty analysis towards predictive science (Invited) (1053290)
Casey Brown, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Amherst, MA, United States, Chinedum Eluwa, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, United States and Samson Zhilyaev, University of Massachusetts, Environmental and Water Resources Engineering, Amherst, United States
 
A Hydroclimatic-Micro-Macroeconomic Model to Assess Climate Change Adaptation in the Agricultural Sector. (1053341)
Francesco Sapino1, Ramiro Parrado2 and carlos Dionisio perez Blanco1, (1)University of Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain, (2)CMCC, Venice, Italy
 
Robust, Equitable and Stable Infrastructure Investment Pathways Require Cooperating Water Utilities to Understand Counterparty Risks (1075267)
David Gold, Cornell University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ithaca, NY, United States, Patrick M Reed, Cornell University, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ithaca, NY, United States, David Gorelick, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Chapel Hill, NC, United States and Gregory W Characklis, Gillings School of Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Chapel Hill, NC, United States
 
Hidden water scarcity due to access inequality – coupled human-natural systems analyses in the Upper Bhima Basin, India (1075393)
Christian J. A. Klassert1, Ankun Wang2, Anjuli Jain Figueroa3, Yuanzao Zhu1, Raphael Karutz4, Heinrich Zozmann1, Bernd Klauer1, Erik Gawel1 and Steven M. Gorelick5, (1)Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ Leipzig, Department of Economics, Leipzig, Germany, (2)Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States, (3)United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C., United States, (4)Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ Leipzig, Department of Urban and Environmental Sociology, Leipzig, Germany, (5)Stanford University, Earth System Science, Stanford, United States
 
Impacts of Forestry Practices on Manoomin/Psiη (Wild Rice) Watersheds in a Changing Climate: Exploring Tribal-University Knowledge Co-Production in Hydrologic Modeling (1091240)
Paige R Voss, University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Minneapolis, United States, G. H. Crystal Ng, University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and Saint Anthony Falls Laboratory, Minneapolis, United States, Dan Larkin, University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, Minneapolis, United States, Joe Graveen, Lac du Flambeau Band of Lake Superior Chippewa, Tribal Council Member, Wild Rice Cultural Enhancement Program, Lac du Flambeau, United States, Shaoqing Liu, Harvard University, Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Cambridge, United States and Shyam Thomas, University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Minnesota Aquatic Invasive Species Research Center, Minneapolis, United States
 
Diverse farmer behaviors lead to complex food-water-energy interactions (1096207)
Nicholas Magliocca1, Ruchie Pathak2, Ashleigh Price2 and Hashir Tanveer3, (1)University of Alabama, Department of Geography, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States, (2)University of Alabama, Geography, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States, (3)University of Alabama, Geography, Tuscaloosa, United States
 
Channel restoration in highly urbanized systems: using ecological flow targets to optimize channel design under future management scenarios (1096987)
Terri S Hogue1, Anneliese Sytsma1, Daniel Philippus1, Jordyn Wolfand2, Katie Irving3, Kristine Taniguchi-Quan3 and Eric D Stein3, (1)Colorado School of Mines, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Golden, CO, United States, (2)University of Portland, Shiley School of Engineering, Portland, OR, United States, (3)Southern California Coastal Water Research Project, Costa Mesa, CA, United States
 
Integrated System Analysis of Food-Water-Energy (FWE) Solutions in a Rapidly Growing Region of India (1097169)
Ankun Wang1, Christian J. A. Klassert2, Raphael Karutz3, Yuanzao Zhu2, Heinrich Zozmann2, Bernd Klauer2, Peter Burek4, Mikhail Smilovic5, Taher Kahil6, Karin Küblböck7, Ines Omann7, Hannes Grohs7, Irene Garousi Nejad8, Anjuli Jain Figueroa9, Yoshihide Wada6, Rosamond Lee Naylor10 and Steven M. Gorelick11, (1)Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States, (2)Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ Leipzig, Department of Economics, Leipzig, Germany, (3)Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ Leipzig, Department of Urban and Environmental Sociology, Leipzig, Germany, (4)IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Biodiversity and Natural Resources Program, Laxenburg, Austria, (5)International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, (6)IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, (7)ÖFSE - Austrian Foundation for Development Research, Vienna, Austria, (8)Stanford University, Stanford, United States, (9)United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C., United States, (10)Stanford University, Earth Systems Science, Stanford, United States, (11)Stanford University, Earth System Science, Stanford, United States
 
Assessing Resilience Capacities of Community Water Systems for Climate Adaptation (1098886)
Christine Kirchhoff, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, University Park, United States and Davis Manshardt, University of Connecticut, Storrs, United States
 
Quantifying the Value of Technology and Policy Innovation in Water Resources Planning (Invited) (1119670)
Marta Zaniolo1, Sarah Fletcher2 and Meagan Mauter2, (1)Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States, (2)Stanford University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford, CA, United States
 
Antifragility: A pathway to improve the design and management of water resources systems in changing climate (1119954)
Farboud Khatami, University of South Carolina Columbia, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Columbia, United States and Erfan Goharian, University of South Carolina, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Columbia, SC, United States
 
Simulating Lags, Tipping Points and Cross Scale Interactions in Integrated Socio-Environmental Systems: Evaluating the Impacts of Early vs. Delayed Nutrient Reductions under Alternate Hydro-Climatic Scenarios in Missisquoi Bay, 2000-2050 (1120781)
Asim Zia1, Andrew W. Schroth2, Patrick J Clemins3, Panagiotis D. Oikonomou4, Jory S Hecht5, Scott Turnbull3, Brian Beckage3, Jonathan Winter6 and Donna Rizzo7, (1)University of Vermont, Department of Community Development and Applied Economics & Department of Computer Science, Burlington, VT, United States, (2)University of Vermont, Department of Geology, Burlington, VT, United States, (3)University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, United States, (4)University of Vermont, EPSCOR, Burlington, United States, (5)University of Vermont, Vermont EPSCoR, Burlington, VT, United States, (6)Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, United States, (7)University of Vermont, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Burlington, VT, United States
 
How water demand interventions can influence water management in the Nile River Basin (1124495)
Andrea Castelletti, Veronica Piuri, Guang Yang, Elena Matta and Matteo Giuliani, Polytechnic University of Milan, Milan, Italy
 
Assessing Water Management Pathways for Environmental Flow Management under Uncertain Futures in the Upper Yamuna Basin (1126274)
Dinesh Kumar1, Dhanya C T1, Ajay Gajanan Bhave2, Saman Razavi3 and Ashvani Kumar Gosain1, (1)Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Department of Civil Engineering, New Delhi, India, (2)Newcastle University, School of Engineering, Tyne and Wear, United Kingdom, (3)University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
 
Challenges in Accounting for Equity in Urban Stormwater Management (1143413)
Virginia B Smith1, Bridget Wadzuk2, Peleg Kremer3, Kate Homet3, Md Abdullah Al Mehedi1, Eric Devlin4 and Laura Moore4, (1)Villanova University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Villanova, PA, United States, (2)Villanova University, Villanova, PA, United States, (3)Villanova University, Geography and the Environment, Villanova, PA, United States, (4)Villanova University, Villanova, United States
 
Significance of socioeconomic data distribution in global water scarcity assessment (1145514)
Prakat Modi, University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Japan, Naota Hanasaki, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Center for Climate Change Adaptation, Ibaraki, Japan, Dai Yamazaki, The University of Tokyo, Institute of Industrial Science, Tokyo, Japan, Julien Boulange, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan and Taikan Oki, The University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Engineering, Tokyo, Japan
 
Near-Term Predictability Lowers Long-Term Adaptation Costs (1153913)
James Doss-Gollin, Rice University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Houston, TX, United States, Jonathan Lamontagne, Tufts University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Medford, MA, United States and Upmanu Lall, Columbia University, Earth and Environmental Engineering, New York, United States
 
Continuous re-optimization of reservoir policies as an adaptation to climate change (1154101)
Sai Veena Sunkara, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, United States and Jonathan D Herman, University of California Davis, Davis, United States
 
Evaluating Climate-related Risks for Biosphere Reserves in South Africa (1157520)
Garima Mandavya, University of Cincinnati Main Campus, Cincinnati, OH, United States, Patrick A Ray, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, United States, Gaurav Atreya, University of Cincinnati, Environmental Engineering, Cincinnati, United States, John R. Kucharski, US Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, CA, United States, Scott Steinschneider, Cornell University, Ithaca, United States, Andrew Watson, Stellenbosch University, Matieland, South Africa, Sadie McEvoy, Deltares, Delft, Netherlands and Koen M J Verbist, UNESCO-IHP, Hydrological Systems and Global Change section, Paris, France
 
Evaluating nature-based solutions for water security at the catchment scale (1160951)
Jose Cuadros-Adriazola1,2, Wouter Buytaert3, Fabian Drenkhan4,5, Nilton Montoya6, Anthony Ross4, Thomas Gribbin7,8 and Pedro Rau9, (1)Imperial College London, London, SW7, United Kingdom, (2)Consorcio para el Desarrollo Sostenible de la Ecorregión Andina (CONDESAN), Lima, Peru, (3)Imperial College London, Civil and Environmental Engineering & Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment, London, SW7, United Kingdom, (4)Imperial College London, Civil and Environmental Engineering, London, United Kingdom, (5)Pontifical Catholic University of Peru, Lima, Peru, (6)UNSAAC, Cusco, Peru, (7)University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom, (8)British Geological Survey Keyworth, Nottinghamshire, United Kingdom, (9)Water Research and Technology Centre CITA, Universidad de Ingeniería y Tecnología UTEC, Lima, Peru, Lima, Peru
 
Evaluating Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) credibility for climate change impact assessment studies (1180404)
Meelisha Maharjan1, Chinedum Eluwa1, Casey Brown2 and Baptiste Francois3, (1)University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, United States, (2)University of Massachusetts Amherst, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Amherst, MA, United States, (3)University of Massachusetts Amherst, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Amherst, United States
 
Integrated modeling of resiliency and robustness in coupled human-water systems (1194567)
Mohammad Reza Alizadeh and Jan F Adamowski, McGill University, Bioresource Engineering, Montreal, QC, Canada
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