NH006
Climate-Informed Risk Assessment for Extreme Events

Session ID#: 158243

Session Description:
Extreme weather and climate events such as heat waves, floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, droughts, and wildfires can have disastrous impacts on society. Changing climate, population, and development patterns may enhance the risks these extreme events pose to society in many regions globally. A non-analog future may make it increasingly difficult to use historical observations and conventional statistical approaches to assess the future probability of extreme events and their associated risks to society. More complete risk assessment frameworks are required. This session focuses on research that addresses the challenges of climate-informed risk assessment. We invite work that uses a novel assessment framework including, but not limited to, uses of state-of-the-art climate models, machine learning, and new data, for understanding and assessing changes in the extreme event characteristics and their effects on physical risks and impacts across social and economic components of society.
Co-Organized:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
Index Terms:

4301 Atmospheric [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4321 Climate impact [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4333 Disaster risk analysis and assessment [NATURAL HAZARDS]

Primary Liaison:  Patrick Harr, National Science Foundation, Arlington, CA, United States
Primary Convener:  Chia-Ying Lee, Columbia University of New York, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States
Conveners:  Patrick Harr, Jupiter Intelligence, San Mateo, CA, United States, Joshua Hacker, Jupiter, Boulder, CO, United States and Park Williams, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States
 
The Economic Costs of Wind Erosion in the United States (1050928)
Irene Feng, George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, VA, United States, Daniel Tong, George Mason University Foundation Inc., Columbia, United States, Thomas E Gill, University of Texas at El Paso, Geological Sciences / Environmental Science and Engineering Program, El Paso, TX, United States, Robert S Van Pelt, USDA ARS, Wind Erosion and Water Conservation Research, Big Spring, TX, United States and Nicholas Webb, USDA-ARS Jornada Experimental Range, Las Cruces, NM, United States
 
Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment of the Georgian Hydrology (Water Sector) to the Effects of Climate Change (1055328)
Aashutosh Aryal, University of Virginia, Engineering Systems and Environment, Charlottesville, VA, United States, Rieks Bosch, EcoCoast Consultancy, Assen, Netherlands and Venkataraman (Venkat) Lakshmi, University of Virginia, Engineering Systems and Environment, Charlottesville, United States
 
Summer and Fall Extreme Fire Weather Projected to Occur More Often and Affect a Growing Portion of California Throughout the 21st Century (1060090)
David Rother, San Diego State University, Geography, San Diego, CA, United States and Fernando De Sales, San Diego State University, Department of Geography, San Diego, CA, United States
 
Assessing Hot-spots of Climate Change Risk due to Heat Wave and Flood in Korea using Ensemble Regional Climate Model (1064657)
Huicheul Jung and Insang Yu, KEI Korea Environment Institute, Korea Adaptation Center for Climate Change, Seoul, South Korea
 
Does the PET-based Drought Index's Choice Lead to Different or Similar Drought Projections for the Future? (1071379)
Femin C Varghese and Subhasis Mitra, Indian Institute of Technology Palakkad, Civil Engineering, Palakkad, India
 
Assessment of Fly Ash Pond Inundation using UAV Photogrammetry (1080769)
Harshit Harshit and Kamal Jain, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Department of Civil Engineering, Roorkee, India
 
Global Hybrid Tropical Cyclone Modeling based upon Statistical and Coupled Climate Models (1092468)
Mathieu Boudreault1, Louis-Philippe Caron2 and Manuel Grenier1, (1)University of Quebec at Montreal UQAM, Mathematics, Montreal, QC, Canada, (2)Ouranos, Montreal, QC, Canada
 
Analysis of model-based electrical transmission disaster risk and extreme weather preparedness for the Southeastern Electric Reliability Council. (1119164)
Zachary Schumann1, James Anderson1, Christopher M. Chini2 and Justin D Delorit3, (1)Air Force Institute of Technology, Bellbrook, OH, United States, (2)Air Force Institute of Technology, Bellbrook, United States, (3)Air Force Institute of Technology, Systems Engineering and Management, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH, United States
 
The use of an event-based pseudo-global-warming modeling approach to assess changes in extreme thunderstorm event characteristics (Invited) (1119930)
Robert Jeffrey Trapp, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Urbana, United States, Sonia Lasher-Trapp, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Atmospheric Sciences, Urbana, IL, United States, Holly Mallinson, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Urbana, IL, United States, Matthew J. Woods, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Atmospheric Sciences, Urbana, United States and Sophie Orendorf, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Atmospheric Sciences, Urbana, United States
 
Assessing the global influence of ENSO on flood risk through 1600 years of simulations (1128047)
Lenin Del Rio Amador and Mathieu Boudreault, University of Quebec at Montreal UQAM, Mathematics, Montreal, QC, Canada
 
Utilizing a machine learning technique to evaluate and map the susceptibility to multi-hazard (1139580)
Sujung Heo1,2, Sangjin Park3, Hyewon Kang4, Ji Yeon Kim5, Yong Piao3 and Dong Kun Lee6, (1)Interdisciplinary program in Landscape Architecture, Seoul, South Korea, (2)Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea, (3)Seoul National Universiy, Interdisciplinary Program in Landscape Architecture & Integrated Major in Smart City Global Convergence, Seoul, South Korea, (4)Seoul National Universiy, Seoul, South Korea, (5)Seoul National University, Interdisciplinary program in Landscape Architecture, Seoul, South Korea, (6)Seoul National University, Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural System Engineering, Seoul, South Korea
 
Exposure-type-specific tropical cyclone risk assessment at the subnational level : Case study in South Korea (1143547)
Yohan Choi, University of Seoul, Seoul, South Korea and Chan Park, University of Seoul, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South)
 
Systemic Risk and Vulnerability Assessment of Heat Stress in Japan using CLIMADA and Regional Climate Downscaling (1148964)
Saurabh Kelkar and Koji Dairaku, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
 
Investigating the Physical Drivers for the Increasing Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Hazard in the United States (1151631)
Dazhi Xi, Princeton University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton, United States and Ning Lin, Princeton University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton, NJ, United States
 
Stress-testing low-likelihood high-impact extreme events (1151711)
Timo Kelder1, Robert Wilby2 and Hasse Goosen1, (1)Climate Adaptation Services (CAS), Bussum, Netherlands, (2)Loughborough University, Geography and Environment, Loughborough, United Kingdom
 
An Approach to Estimate Agricultural Flood Loss in the US (1152002)
Md Asif Rahman, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, United States and Eric Tate, University of Iowa, Iowa City, United States
 
Assessing the vulnerability of groundwater floods in Ireland to a changing climate (1153232)
Joan Campanya Campanya1, Owen Naughton1 and McCormack Ted2, (1)South East Technological University, Carlow, Ireland, (2)Geological Survey Ireland, Dublin, Ireland
 
Physical climate storylines: key methodological approaches (1158933)
Marina Baldissera Pacchetti, University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds, LS2, United Kingdom, Liese Coulter, Royal Roads University, School of Earth and Environment, Victoria, BC, Canada, Suraje Dessai, University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds, United Kingdom, Bart van den Hurk, Deltares, Delft, Netherlands, Theodore G Shepherd, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom and Jana Sillmann, Universtiy of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
 
Future Temperature Related Deaths in the US: The Impact of Climate Change, Demographics and Adaptation (1169883)
Jangho Lee, Texas A&M University College Station, College Station, TX, United States and Andrew E Dessler, Texas A&M Univ, College Station, TX, United States
 
Warming weakens the night-time barrier to global fire (Invited) (1173850)
Jennifer Balch, University of Colorado, ESIIL, Boulder, United States, John Abatzoglou, University of California Merced, Management of Complex Systems, Merced, United States, Maxwell Joseph, University of Colorado at Boulder, CIRES Earth Lab, Boulder, CO, United States; NCX, San Francisco, United States, Michael J Koontz, University of Colorado at Boulder, Earth Lab, Boulder, United States, Adam Mahood, University of Colorado Boulder, CIRES Earth Lab, Boulder, United States; Water Resources, USDA-ARS, Fort Collins, United States, Joseph McGlinchy, University of Colorado at Boulder, Earth Lab (CIRES), Boulder, CO, United States; Hydrosat Inc., Washington, DC, United States, Megan E Cattau, Boise State University, Human-Environment Systems, Boise, ID, United States and Park Williams, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States
 
Global Projections of Flash Drought in a Warming Climate (1179634)
Jordan I Christian1, Elinor R Martin1, Jeffrey B Basara2 and Jason C Furtado3, (1)University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, Norman, United States, (2)University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology; School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science, Norman, United States, (3)University of Oklahoma, School of Meterology, Norman, OK, United States
 
Elevational trends of fire danger in the western United States (1180065)
Mohammad Reza Alizadeh1, John Abatzoglou2, Jan F Adamowski1, Arash Modaresi Rad3, Amir AghaKouchak4, Francesco S.R. Pausata5 and Mojtaba Sadegh6, (1)McGill University, Bioresource Engineering, Montreal, QC, Canada, (2)University of California Merced, Management of Complex Systems, Merced, United States, (3)Boise State University, Computing, Boise, United States, (4)University of California, Irvine, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Irvine, CA, United States, (5)University of Quebec in Montreal, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Montreal, Canada, (6)Boise State University, Department of Civil Engineering, Boise, ID, United States
 
Impacts of Climate Extremes in Southern Africa: The Case of Mozambique and Malawi (1180205)
Nellie Amosi and Richard O Anyah, University of Connecticut, Groton, CT, United States
 
Connecting spatial climate information to infrastructure operations using deep reinforcement learning (1180219)
Liam Ekblad, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, United States, Jonathan D Herman, University of California Davis, Davis, United States, Scott Steinschneider, Cornell University, Ithaca, United States, Matteo Giuliani, Politecnico di Milano, Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering, Milano, Italy and Andrea Castelletti, Politecnico di Milano, Department of Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering, Milano, Italy
 
Flood risk to power generation in the United States (1181502)
Nicole D Jackson, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, United States, Ariel Miara, National Renewable Energy Laboratory Fort Collins, Fort Collins, United States, Fabio Corsi, CUNY City College of New York, New York, NY, United States, Daniel Vignoles, CUNY AAdvanced Science Research Center at The Graduate Center, Environmental Sciences Initiative, New York, United States, Hussain Haider Bokhari, CUNY Advanced Science Research Center at The Graduate Center, Environmental Sciences Initiative, New York, NY, United States, Nalini S. Rao, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, United States, Balazs M Fekete, CUNY City College, New York, NY, United States, Henriette I. Jager, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States and Charles J. Vörösmarty, CUNY City College of New York, Civil Engineering, New York, NY, United States
 
Utilizing Climate-Informed Convolutional Neural Network for Future Flood Damage Assessment in the Cropland Area (1181737)
Rehenuma Lazin1, Xinyi Shen2 and Emmanouil N Anagnostou2, (1)Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, United States, (2)University of Connecticut, Storrs, United States
 
Advancing Compound Modelling of Tropical Cyclone Wind and Surge for the Caribbean Islands with Climate Change (1183100)
Mona Hemmati, Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Earth Institute, Palisades, NY, United States, Adam H Sobel, Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, NY, United States, Suzana J Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observat., Palisades, NY, United States, Chia-Ying Lee, Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, Kyle T Mandli, Columbia University of New York, Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, NY, United States and Jane Wilson Baldwin, University of California Irvine, Earth System Science, Irvine, CA, United States
 
Using Statistical Learning Techniques to Investigate Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Large Tornado Outbreaks in the United States (1185094)
Niloufar Nouri, The City University of New York (City College), Department of Data Science, New York, United States and Naresh Devineni, NOAA Center for Earth System Sciences and Remote Sensing Technologies (CESSRST), New York, United States; The City University of New York (City College), Department of Civil Engineering, New York, United States
 
Role of Background Flow in Hurricane Induced Surge Risk (1187512)
Geeta Nain1, Jiali Wang2, William Pringle3, Michael E Baldwin1 and Veerabhadra Rao Kotamarthi4, (1)Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, United States, (2)Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, United States, (3)Argonne National Laboratory, Environmental Science Division, Argonne, IL, United States, (4)Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, United States
 
Simulating the changing US hurricane risk using RAFT (1189496)
Dave Judi1, Wenwei Xu2, Karthik Balaguru3 and Leung Ruby1, (1)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, (2)PNNL, Seattle, WA, United States, (3)PNNL, Marine Sciences Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States
 
Did the Xpress-Pearl Ship Management Neglect Extreme Weather Risks in May 2021 contributing to its, fire, explosions and capsizing and the ensuing ecological and social disaster? (1196842)
Nipuni Alahakoon1,2, Lareef Zubair1, Tuan Hadgie2 and Yoosuf Razi2, (1)Foundation for Environment, Climate and Technology, Digana Village, Sri Lanka, (2)Tropical Climate Guarantee, Kandy, Sri Lanka
 
Exploring the Role of Fire Mitigation Policies in Adapting Communities to Wildfire Events (1197530)
Akshat Chulahwat, Colorado State University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Fort Collins, United States and Hussam Mahmoud, Colorado State University Fort Collins, Fort Collins, CO, United States
 
Assessing the risk of temperature extremes across North America’s energy grid regions and associated renewable energy potential (1199962)
Deepti Singh, Washington State University Vancouver, School of the Environment, Vancouver, WA, United States and Cassandra Rogers, Washington State University Vancouver, Vancouver, WA, United States
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