A027
Atmospheric Rivers: Processes, Impacts, and Uncertainties

Session ID#: 158533

Session Description:
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) comprise filaments of intense water vapor transport in the lower troposphere and are essential to the global hydrological cycle. ARs operate within a broader dynamical environment; their linkages to weather and climate extremes, and their variations in a changing climate, motivate and inform the need for improvements in AR forecasting to expand understanding as well as facilitate emergency response and mitigate socio-economic impacts. Quantifying uncertainty in AR measures—which may originate from detection methodology, data products, and model biases—is crucial for assessing confidence in process-level and impact-orientated AR analyses and predictions.

This session focuses on ARs, including their development, driving mechanisms, dynamical and thermodynamic responses to climate change past and future, linkage with multi-scale climate variability, and hydrological impacts. Abstracts which make use of data from the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project to quantify and elucidate the implication of uncertainty are particularly encouraged.

Index Terms:

0312 Air/sea constituent fluxes [ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE]
3305 Climate change and variability [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3364 Synoptic-scale meteorology [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]


Primary Convener:  Juan Manuel Lora, Yale University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, New Haven, CT, United States
Conveners:  Yang Zhou, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States and Christine A Shields, NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Uncertainty in Atmospheric River Detection and Atmospheric River Induced Precipitation due to Reanalysis Selection (Invited) (1052950)
Allison Collow, University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD, United States; Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, United States, Christine A Shields, NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States, Jonathan J Rutz, NOAA, Boulder, United States, L. Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Richland, WA, United States, Marty Ralph, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, CA, United States, Michael F Wehner, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States, Travis Allen O'Brien, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Climate & Ecosystem Sciences Division, Berkeley, CA, United States and Ashley Elizabeth Payne, University of Michigan, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
 
Modulation of Atmospheric Rivers by the Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex (1053625)
Simon H Lee, Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, United States, Lorenzo M Polvani, Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, NY, United States and Bin Guan, University of California, Los Angeles, Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, Los Angeles, CA, United States
 
The Kona Low Impact on the Eastern Pacific Valentine’s Day (2019) Atmospheric River Landfall Precipitation over the US West (1056727)
Sue Chen1, Carolyn A. Reynolds2, Jerome Schmidt3, Philippe Pierre Papin4, Matthew Janiga2, Richard Bankert5 and Andrew Huang6, (1)Naval Research Lab Monterey, Marine Meteorology, Monterey, CA, United States, (2)US Naval Research Laboratory, Marine Meteorology Division, Monterey, CA, United States, (3)Naval Research Lab Monterey, Monterey, CA, United States, (4)NOAA, Hurricane Center, Miami, United States, (5)Naval Research Laboratory (Retired), Monterey, United States, (6)Science Applications International Corporation, Monterey, United States
 
Atmospheric River Variability over the Last Millennium Driven by Annular Modes (1062446)
Seung Hun Baek1, Joseph Michael Battalio2 and Juan Manuel Lora2, (1)Yale University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, New Haven, United States, (2)Yale University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, New Haven, CT, United States
 
Zonal Atmospheric Rivers impinging the West Coast of Extratropical South America: A silent threat (1067067)
Rene Garreaud, Universidad de Chile, Geophysics Department, Santiago, Chile
 
Atmospheric Rivers over the Northeast United States (1068567)
Nicholas D Metz, Hobart and William Smith College, Geoscience, Geneva, NY, United States, Jason Cordeira, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, United States, Anna Kaminski, Florida State University, Tallahassee, United States, Megan Duncan, Oregon State University, Corvallis, United States, Katie Bachli, Penn State University, State College, United States, Michaela Ericksen, St. Cloud State University, St. Cloud, United States, Ivy Glade, Colorado State University Fort Collins, Fort Collins, CO, UNITED STATES, Cassandra Roberts, Elizabethtown College, Elizabethtown, United States and Clark Evans, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Atmospheric Science Program, Milwaukee, WI, United States
 
Uncovering the Archetypical cross-Pacific Atmospheric River Main Routes (1071934)
Mengxin Pan1,2, Mengqian Lu1, Upmanu Lall3 and Shineng Hu4, (1)Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Hong Kong SAR, China, (2)Duke University, Nicholas School of the Environment, Durham, United States, (3)Columbia University, Columbia Water Center and Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, New York, United States, (4)Duke University, Division of Earth and Climate Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment, Durham, NC, United States
 
Extreme Precipitation-Temperature Scaling in California: the Role of Atmospheric Rivers (1089097)
Nasser Najibi, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States and Scott Steinschneider, Cornell University, Ithaca, United States
 
The effect of SST anomalies on surface fluxes in U.S. West Coast atmospheric rivers and their downstream precipitation. (1090656)
Alison Cobb, University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, La Jolla, United States, Rui Sun, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, United States, Matthew R Mazloff, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States, Bruce D Cornuelle, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States, Aneesh Subramanian, University of Colorado at Boulder, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, United States, Luca Delle Monache, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States and Marty Ralph, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, CA, United States
 
A Role of Water Vapor from the Atmospheric River on Precipitation Development (1103017)
Hyeon-Joon Kim, Jongjin Baik, Hoyoung Cha, Jinwook Lee and Changhyun Jun, Chung-Ang University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul, South Korea
 
Intercomparison Of Atmospheric River Detectors To Analyze Differences In Meteorological Phenomena (1110515)
Kwesi Quagraine, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN, United States, Travis Allen O'Brien, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Climate & Ecosystem Sciences Division, Berkeley, CA, United States and Mohammad Rubaiat Islam, Indiana University Bloomington, Earth and Atmospheric Science, Bloomington, IN, United States
 
Spring-time Heavy Precipitation and Flooding in Iran linked to Atmospheric River Conditions: An 18-year Climatology and Case Study of 2019 (1122961)
Eric Jay Shearer1, Mojtaba Sadeghi1, Hamidreza Mosaffa2, Vesta Afzali Gorooh1, Matin Rahnamay Naeini1, Negin Hayatbini1, Pari-Sima Katiraie-Boroujerdy3, Bita Analui1, Phu Nguyen1 and Soroosh Sorooshian1,4, (1)University of California, Irvine, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Irvine, United States, (2)Shiraz University, Department of Water Engineering, Shiraz, Iran, (3)Islamic Azad University, North Tehran Branch, Department of Meteorology, Tehran, Iran, (4)University of California, Irvine, Department of Earth Systems Science, Irvine, United States
 
Representation of Northern Pacific Atmospheric River Flavors in CESM2 Large Ensemble (1131870)
Yang Zhou1, Travis Allen O'Brien2, William Drew Collins3, Christine A Shields4, Burlen Loring5 and Abdelrahman Elbashandy1, (1)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States, (2)Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Climate & Ecosystem Sciences Division, Berkeley, CA, United States, (3)Berkeley Lab and UC Berkeley, Berkeley, United States, (4)NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Computational Research Division, Berkeley, United States
 
Ozone Anomalies in Dry Intrusions Associated with Atmospheric Rivers (1146161)
Kirsten Hall1, Huiqun Wang2, Amir Souri2, Xiong Liu2 and Kelly Chance2, (1)Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, United States, (2)Center for Astrophysics | Harvard & Smithsonian, Cambridge, United States
 
The Sensitivity of Atmospheric Rivers to Climate Forcing and Their Role in Shaping Regional Climate Changes Since the Last Glacial Maximum (Invited) (1151471)
Christopher B Skinner, University of Massachusetts Lowell, Department of Environmental, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Lowell, MA, United States and Juan Lora, Yale University, Earth and Planetary Sciences, New Haven, United States
 
Using Variable Resolution Grids to Model Atmospheric Rivers around the Greenland Ice Sheet (1155657)
Annelise Waling, University of New Hampshire Main Campus, Durham, NH, United States, Elizabeth Burakowski, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH, United States, Adam R Herrington, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States and Katharine Duderstadt, University of New Hampshire, Earth Systems Research Center, Durham, NH, United States
 
The Relationship between Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers and Surface Mass Balance Change in Greenland from 2002 to 2020 (1163621)
Nicholas D Metz, Hobart and William Smith College, Geoscience, Geneva, NY, United States, Ivy Glade, Colorado State University Fort Collins, Fort Collins, CO, UNITED STATES and Alexandra Dwyer, Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, United States
 
Evaluating the Representations of Atmospheric Rivers and Associated Precipitation in Reanalyses with Satellite Observations (1164550)
Weiming Ma1, Gang Chen1, Hui Su2 and Bin Guan3, (1)University of California Los Angeles, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (2)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States, (3)University of California, Los Angeles, Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, Los Angeles, CA, United States
 
On the Relationship of Arctic Oscillation with Atmospheric Rivers and Snowpack in the Western United States (1180762)
Sen Chiao, Howard University, Washington, DC, United States, Ju-Mee Ryoo, NASA Ames Research Center, Atmospheric Sciences Branch, Moffett Field, CA, United States and Samuel Liner, San Jose State University, San Jose, United States
 
Relationship Between Atmospheric Rivers and the Dry SeasonExtreme Precipitation in Central-Western Mexico for past and future climates. (1181001)
Hector Alejandro Inda Diaz, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, United States and Travis Allen O'Brien, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Climate & Ecosystem Sciences Division, Berkeley, CA, United States
 
Atmospheric River Sector Identification (1182310)
Sol Kim, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States, Alison Cobb, University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, La Jolla, United States and John Chiang, UC Berkeley, Geography, Berkeley, CA, United States
 
Lightning Characteristics of Atmospheric Rivers over the Americas Observed by GOES Geostationary Lightning Mappers (1186475)
Bin Guan, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, Duane Edward Waliser, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States and F Martin Ralph, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States
 
Airborne Radio Occultation Data Retrieved from Multi-Global Navigation Satellite Systems in Atmospheric River Reconnaissance Campaigns over the Northeast Pacific (1189728)
Jennifer S Haase1, Bing Cao2, Pawel Hordyniec3,4, Michael J Murphy5, Anna Maria Wilson6, Jacob Hair4,7 and Xingren Wu8, (1)University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, (2)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, (3)Wroclaw University of Environmental and Life Sciences, Institute of Geodesy and Geoinformatics, Wroclaw, Poland, (4)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, United States, (5)UCSD, La Jolla, United States, (6)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, CA, United States, (7)Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, University Park, United States, (8)EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Crofton, MD, United States
 
Roles of MJO and Extratropical State to Atmospheric Rivers along the North American West Coast (1196598)
Kinya Toride, University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Japan; University of Washington, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, United States and Gregory J. Hakim, University of Washington, Seattle, United States
 
Atmospheric River Forecasts for the United States using NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System Reforecasts and Reanalysis 2000-2019 (1196725)
Keqin Wu, NGI at EMC/NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD, United States, Xingren Wu, EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Crofton, MD, United States, Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD, United States and Marty Ralph, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, CA, United States
 
Impact of Extratropical Eddy Kinetic Energy Energetics on Atmospheric Rivers (1199710)
Joseph Michael Battalio1, Seung Hun Baek2 and Juan Manuel Lora1, (1)Yale University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, New Haven, CT, United States, (2)Yale University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, New Haven, United States
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