V007
Lessons Learned from Eruption Scenarios and Hypothetical Exercises

Session ID#: 158603

Session Description:
Furthering our understanding volcano dynamics involves interpreting a range of physical processes that occur relatively rarely in the real world.  Thus, hypothetical scenarios are critical for planning ahead to maximize scientific progress from a real eruption. Hypothetical “tabletop” eruptions are a common method of exercising both emergency response and scientific activities that would occur during a real eruption.  In the realm of numerical modeling, forward and inverse models of volcano deformation continue to increase in complexity and are increasingly applied towards hazard assessment and event response.  These exercises are an important component of establishing community standards and benchmarks to ensure quality research and reproducibility.  Recently, several exercises have been conducted in community research groups. We encourage participants of these exercises, as well as researchers with studies of their own, to share their results and insights about how hypothetical studies improve volcano research.
Index Terms:

8419 Volcano monitoring [VOLCANOLOGY]
8488 Volcanic hazards and risks [VOLCANOLOGY]
8499 General or miscellaneous [VOLCANOLOGY]

Primary Convener:  Emily K. Montgomery-Brown, USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory, Vancouver, WA, United States
Conveners:  Einat Lev, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States and Josh A Crozier, USGS CalVo, Menlo Park, United States
Student/Early Career Convener:  Emily K. Montgomery-Brown, USGS, Volcano Science Center, Menlo Park, CA, United States
 
How the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory Has Used Eruption Scenario and Tabletop Exercises to Prepare for Future Events in Yellowstone and the Southwest USA (1060011)
Michael P Poland, USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory, Vancouver, WA, United States and Wendy K Stovall, US Geological Survey, Vancouver, WA, United States
 
Modeling volcanic deformation (1064648)
Maurizio Battaglia, USGS Volcano Science Center, Volcano Disaster Assistance Program, Menlo Park, United States
 
The U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Science Center’s “Significant Volcanic Event Response Plan” -- A Formal Structure for Eruption Response (1091883)
Seth C Moran1, Christina A Neal2 and Thomas L Murray2, (1)USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory, Vancouver, WA, United States, (2)USGS-AVO, Anchorage, AK, United States
 
Scientific and Non-Scientific Challenges in Short-Term Eruption and Hazard Forecasting; Lessons from the VUELCO Excercise at Campi Flegrei, Italy. (1103948)
Warner Marzocchi, The University of Naples Federico II, Naples, Italy, Paolo Papale, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Pisa, Italy, Laura Sandri, Istituto Nazionale Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, Italy and Jacopo Selva, INGV National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Rome, Italy
 
Drivers of Volcano Deformation (DVD) Verification and Validation Exercises: Phase 1 (1109613)
Emily K. Montgomery-Brown1, Leif Karlstrom2, Josh A Crozier3, Mary Grace Bato4, Valerie Cayol5, Mario Angarita6, Ronni Grapenthin7, Ana Astort8, Flavio Cannavo9, Francesca Silverii10,11, Taiyi Wang12, Matthew Head13, Tara Shreve14, Yan Zhan15, Elisa Trasatti8 and Deepak Garg10, (1)USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory, Vancouver, WA, United States, (2)University of Oregon, Department of Earth Sciences, Eugene, OR, United States, (3)USGS CalVo, Menlo Park, United States, (4)ISTerre Institute of Earth Sciences, Chambéry, France, (5)Lyon University, Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, UJM-UBP-CNRS-IRD, St Etienne, France, (6)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (7)University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, United States, (8)INGV, Rome, Italy, (9)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Catania - Osservatorio Etneo, Catania, Italy, (10)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Palermo, Italy, (11)Instituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy, (12)Stanford University, Geophysics, Stanford, CA, United States, (13)University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States, (14)Carnegie Institution for Science, Earth and Planets Laboratory, Washington, DC, United States, (15)Earth and Planets Laboratory, Carnegie Institution for Science, Washington, United States
See more of: Volcanology, Geochemistry and Petrology
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