GC022
Confirming, Evaluating, and Quantifying Uncertainty in Climate, Earth System, Paleo, Integrated Assessment, and Impact Models

Session ID#: 158902

Session Description:
Interpreting and quantifying the uncertainty in future projections as well as explanations of present events from climate, earth system, integrated assessment (IA), and impact models is critical to assessing associated impacts on human and natural systems. Future planning based on these projections requires innovative and potentially generalizable approaches to quantify uncertainty and characterize risks for decision making. Methods for evaluating and supporting the adequacy and utility of climate, Earth system, IA, and Impact models have advanced recently. This session focuses on (1) presenting innovative and potentially generalizable approaches to characterizing uncertainties, as well as (2) demonstrating and applying recent methods for climate model-building and evaluation, and climate attribution, including analysis of extreme events. Connecting methods for characterizing uncertainty or model support to implementation of climate-response policies to assess the risks posed by climate change to natural systems, are also welcome, all with the goal of informing effective future societal action.
Index Terms:

1622 Earth system modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1986 Statistical methods: Inferential [INFORMATICS]
6309 Decision making under uncertainty [POLICY SCIENCES & PUBLIC ISSUES]

Primary Convener:  Elisabeth A Lloyd, Indiana University Bloomington, History and Philosophy of Science and Medicine, Bloomington, IN, United States
Conveners:  Ryan James O'Loughlin, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN, United States, Donald D Lucas, LLNL, Livermore, United States and Justin Donhauser, Bowling Green State University, Bowling Green, OH, UNITED STATES
Student/Early Career Convener:  Ryan James O'Loughlin, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN, United States
 
Using data-driven predictions to constrain climate model uncertainty in the time remaining until critical global warming thresholds are reached (Invited) (1075823)
Noah S Diffenbaugh, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States and Elizabeth A Barnes, Colorado State University, Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, United States
 
Spatio-temporal Heterogeneity of CMIP6 Model Uncertainty in Sub-daily Precipitation Extremes (1120100)
Archana Majhi, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi, India, Dhanya C T, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Department of Civil Engineering, New Delhi, India and Sumedha Chakma, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Civil Engineering, New Delhi, India
 
Adequacy and Reliability of Earth System Models: Actionable Purposes, Model Inadequacy and Epistemic Risk (1173073)
Monica Ainhorn Ainhorn Morrison, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Evaluating constraints on future climate change based on model skill over the historical record (1177671)
Cristian Proistosescu, University of Illinois Urbana‐Champaign, Champaign, United States and Abigail Marie McDonnell, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Atmospheric Sciences, Urbana, United States
 
Novelty does not Undermine Niche-Based Invasion Projections for an Invasive Annual Grass (1187361)
Becky K Kerns1, Ty Nietupski2, John B Kim3, Claire Tortorelli4 and Rebecca Lemons4, (1)USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, Corvallis, Corvallis, United States, (2)USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, Corvallis, United States, (3)USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, Corvallis, OR, United States, (4)Oregon State University, Corvallis, United States
 
Quantifying Regional Changes in the Relationship Between Climate Sensitivity and Temperature Extremes Across Generations of Earth System Models (1192061)
Jack Watson1, Auroop Ganguly1 and Sophia Bailey2, (1)Northeastern University, Boston, MA, United States, (2)Northeastern University, Boston, United States
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