GC023
Connecting Cause and Effect in Analyses of Coupled Human and Geophysical Systems: the Early to Modern Anthropocene
Session ID#: 165437
Session Description:
Distinguishing causal relationships from mere statistical associations in coupled human and geophysical systems is challenging because of system complexity, feedbacks, non-stationarity, missing data, and spatial and temporal scale mismatches in data. Yet, these challenges must be overcome to advance both science and policy. This session showcases advances in the study of coupled human-geophysical systems, with a focus on the determination of causal linkages in the study of human activity and pre-industrial through contemporary environmental change. We welcome research from the fields of econometrics, statistics, and computer science, as well as those representing interdisciplinary approaches from any physical, ecological, or social science field. We highlight research leveraging emerging data sources; addressing non-stationarity and feedbacks within causal investigations; and combining social and environmental data to investigate causal relations.
Co-Organized:
Index Terms:
1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1694 Instruments and techniques [GLOBAL CHANGE]
4902 Anthropogenic effects [PALEOCEANOGRAPHY]
4912 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling [PALEOCEANOGRAPHY]
Primary Convener: Morgan C Levy, University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, and School of Global Policy and Strategy, La Jolla, CA, United States
Conveners: Stephen J Vavrus, Univ Wisconsin, Madison, WI, United States, Marc Muller, University of Notre Dame, Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences, Notre Dame, IN, United States and Feng He, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States
Temperature Trends, Climate Attribution and the Nonstationarity Question (1049232)
Ross McKitrick, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada, Timothy J. Vogelsang, Michigan State University, Economics, East Lansing, United States and John R Christy, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Earth System Science Center, Huntsville, AL, United States
Implementing Human-Environment Feedbacks in a Global Model (1067307)
Alan V Di Vittorio, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States, Timothy Shippert, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States and Bond-Lamberty Benjamin, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States
Parameter Recovery Using Remotely Sensed Variables: Problems and Solutions (Invited) (1072760)
Tamma Carleton, University of California Santa Barbara, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, Santa Barbara, United States, Jonathan Proctor, Harvard University, Center for the Environment & Data Science Initiative, Cambridge, MA, United States and Sandy Sum, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States
Human Dimension Indicators Based Assessment of Change in Deliverance Level of Coastal Ecosystem Services in Socio-Ecological System of Mahim Fishing Village, Mumbai. (1084596)
P Pallavi1, Devanathan Parthasarathy2, Narayanan K2 and Arun B Inamdar3, (1)Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India, (2)Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Humanities and Social Science, Mumbai, India, (3)Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Centre of Studies in Resources Engineering, Mumbai, India
Levantine Agriculture During the Early to Middle Bronze Age (1087874)
Steven Porson, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, United States, Patricia L. Fall, University of North Carolina Charlotte, Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, Charlotte, NC, United States, Steven Falconer, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Anthropology, Charlotte, United States, Suzanne Pilaar Birch, University of Georgia, Anthropology, Athens, United States and Elizabeth Ridder, California State University San Marcos, Geography, San Marcos, United States
Stagg: An R Package for Spatiotemporal Aggregation of ERA5 Climate Data (1123533)
Sara Orofino1, Tyler Liddell2, Anna Boser3, Tracey Mangin1 and Tamma Carleton4, (1)University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, United States, (2)University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States, (3)University of California Santa Barbara, Berkeley, CA, United States, (4)University of California Santa Barbara, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, Santa Barbara, United States
The Importance of Precipitation in Climate Impact Models (1129036)
Pascal Polonik1, Katharine Ricke2,3 and Jennifer Burney3, (1)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, (2)University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, (3)University of California San Diego, School of Global Policy and Strategy, La Jolla, United States
Throwing caution to the wind: Common instrumental variables approaches to causal analysis of air pollution are flawed (1199123)
Andrew I Wilson, Columbia University, New York, United States, Jaecheol Lee, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, United States and Solomon M Hsiang, University of California, Berkeley, Goldman School of Public Policy, Berkeley, United States
