GC038
Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change: A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action. Coupling of Observations and Models; Integrated Attribution, Prediction and Projection; Assessment of Current and Future Hazards

Session ID#: 159004

Session Description:
The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a world “that uses sound, relevant, and timely climate science to ensure a more resilient present and sustainable future for humankind.” The goal of the WCRP Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change is to develop an integrated capability to understand, attribute, and predict changes in the Earth system on multi-annual to decadal timescales and global to regional space scales, including capabilities for early warning of potential high impact changes and events. With this session we aim to document current research, identify challenges, and explore potential pathways towards achieving this goal. We invite contributions in three thematic areas: (i) monitoring and modelling Earth system change, particularly approaches demonstrating tight coupling between observational and modeling efforts; (ii) integrated attribution, prediction and projection of Earth system change, and (iii) assessment of current and future hazards, such as tropical cyclones, heatwaves and droughts.
Co-Organized:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • H - Hydrology
  • OS - Ocean Sciences
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • WCRP: World Climate Research Programme -
Index Terms:

1622 Earth system modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1817 Extreme events [HYDROLOGY]
3305 Climate change and variability [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4315 Monitoring, forecasting, prediction [NATURAL HAZARDS]

Primary Convener:  Kirsten Lynn Findell, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
Conveners:  Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, United States, Isla Simpson, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States and Haiyan Teng, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, United States
 
How Well Do CMIP6 Models Simulate Heavy Multi-Day Precipitation Events? (1046836)
David R Easterling, NOAA Asheville, Asheville, NC, United States and Kenneth Kunkel, North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies, North Carolina State University, Asheville, United States
 
Analysis of Marine Heatwaves in the Bay of Bengal region (1048959)
Sudhanshu Kumar, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, India and Arun Chakraborty, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Centre for Oceans, Rivers, Atmosphere and Land Sciences, Kharagpur, India
 
Research on Climate Change Impact Detection Method Using River Level Data Less Affected by Dams and Urbanization (1051002)
Manabu Watanabe1, Yasuaki Hijioka2, Minoru Fujii2 and Kenichi Nakajima2, (1)Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan, (2)NIES National Institute of Environmental Studies, Ibaraki, Japan
 
Emergence of Climate Change in the Tropical Pacific (1058019)
Matthew Collins1, Jun Ying2, Shuping Zhong2, Wenju Cai3, Axel Timmermann4, Ping Huang5, Dake Chen6 and Karl Joseph Stein7, (1)University of Exeter, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Exeter, EX4, United Kingdom, (2)Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Hangzhou, China, (3)Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, VIC, Australia, (4)Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, South Korea, (5)Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, (6)Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanographic Administration of China, Hangzhou, China, (7)University of Hawaii at Manoa, Hawaii Natural Energy Institute, Honolulu, United States
 
Long Term Trends and Variability of Spectral Wave Systems in the New York Bight (1061234)
Maria Venolia, Stevens Institute of Technology, Civil, Ocean and Environmental Engineering, Jersey City, United States, Reza Marsooli, Stevens Institute of Technology, Civil, Ocean and Environmental Engineering, Hoboken, United States and Jesus Portilla Yandun, Escuela Politecnica Nacional, Mechanical Engineering Department, Quito-Ecuador, Ecuador
 
Contrasting projections of the ENSO-driven CO2 flux variability in the equatorial Pacific under high-warming scenario (1071898)
Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, NORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway, Climate and Environment, Bergen, Norway, Laurent Bopp, Ecole normale supérieure (ENS), Département de Géosciences, Paris, France, Jim R. Christian, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC, Canada, Tatiana Ilyina, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, John P Krasting, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States, Roland Séférian, Meteo-France - CNRS, CNRM, CEN, Toulouse, France, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Ibaraki, Japan, Michio Watanabe, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan, Andrew Yool, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, United Kingdom and Jerry Tjiputra, NORCE Climate, Bergen, Norway
 
Projected Water Table Depth Changes of the World’s Major Groundwater Basins and Potential Human Impact (1073530)
Maya Costantini, CNRM, Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France, Jeanne Colin, CNRM-GAME, Toulouse Cedex 01, France and Bertrand Decharme, CNRM, Météo-France & CNRS, Toulouse cedex, France
 
An Overview of the "Monitoring and Modelling Earth System Changes" Working Group of the WCRP Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change (Invited) (1075841)
Patrick Heimbach, University of Texas at Austin, Oden Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences, Austin, TX, United States and Anca Brookshaw, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
 
Evaluating CMIP model simulations of the Indian Ocean Dipole - the role of monsoon air-sea feedback on its skewness (1083432)
Yiling Zheng1,2, Francis Chi Yung Tam1,2, Kang Xu3 and Matthew Collins4, (1)The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, China, (2)The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Earth System Science Programme, Hong Kong, China, (3)South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, Guangzhou, China, (4)University of Exeter, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Exeter, EX4, United Kingdom
 
CLDERA: A Novel Foundational Approach for Attributing Impacts to Localized Source Forcings in the Climate (1090332)
Diana L Bull1, Kara J Peterson2, Irina Tezaur3, Lyndsay Shand2 and Laura Swiler2, (1)Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, United States, (2)Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States, (3)Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, United States
 
A Link between Kuroshio Extension Variations, Northeast Pacific Marine Heatwaves, and Marine Ecosystems in the Gulf of Alaska (1091054)
Nishchitha S Etige and Bruce T Anderson, Boston University, Earth and Environment, Boston, MA, United States
 
The long-term trends of global land precipitation in GFDL's CM4 and ESM4 climate models (1092777)
Yanda Zhang, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, Thomas R Knutson, NOAA Princeton, Princeton, NJ, United States and Elena Shevliakova, NOAA/ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
 
Identifying State-Dependent Predictability in Near-Term Climate Evolution (1096848)
Emily Gordon, Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, United States and Elizabeth A Barnes, Colorado State University, Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, United States
 
How Sensitive is Future Western United States Wildfire Activity to Uncertainty in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation? (1098380)
Caroline Juang, Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States; Columbia University of New York, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Palisades, United States, Park Williams, Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, CA, United States; University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States and Richard Seager, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States
 
The 2020 Summertime Extreme Marine Heatwave Events in the North Arabian Sea (1099206)
Yongjia Lu, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Francis Chi Yung Tam, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Earth System Science, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Kang Xu, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, Guangzhou, China and Matthew Collins, University of Exeter, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Exeter, EX4, United Kingdom
 
Observational Constraints on the Future Arctic Ice-Free Year: Importance of Regional Perspective (1102391)
Seungmok Paik, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), Daehyun Kim, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA, United States and Soon-Il An, Yonsei University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Seoul, South Korea
 
CMIP6 Projections of humid versus dry heatwaves in the US. (1104965)
Junya Wu, University of Connecticut, Groton, CT, United States and Anji Seth, University of Connecticut, Geography, Groton, CT, United States
 
Hierarchical Testing and Evaluation of Physical Processes during the DYNAMO Field Campaign in the Unified Forecast System (1117771)
Weiwei Li1,2, Brianne Nelson1,3, Evelyn D. Grell2,4, Man Zhang2,5, Kathryn Newman1,2, Michelle Harrold1,3, Evan Kalina6 and Tracy Hertneky1,2, (1)NCAR, RAL, Boulder, United States, (2)Developmental Testbed Center (DTC), Boulder, United States, (3)Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, United States, (4)NOAA, OAR/PSL, Boulder, United States, (5)NOAA, Global Systems Laboratory, University of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, United States, (6)Previously with NOAA, OAR/GSL, CIRES and Developmental Testbed Center (DTC), Boulder, United States
 
Multi-year Variation of ENSO Forecast Skill Since the Late 1800s (1120902)
Jiale Lou, CIRES CU-Boulder and NOAA-PSL, Boulder, United States, Matthew Newman, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, United States and Andrew Hoell, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States
 
New Land- vs. Ocean based Global Mean Temperature Reconstructions reveal high consistency except for early 20th Century Ocean Cold Anomaly (Invited) (1121569)
Nicolai Meinshausen1, Sebastian Sippel1, Erich M Fischer2, Vincent Humphrey3, Robert A. Rohde4, Iris Elisabeth de Vries5 and Reto Knutti2, (1)ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, (2)ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, (3)ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich, Switzerland, (4)Berkeley Earth, Zurich, Switzerland, (5)ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Department of Environmental Systems Science, Zurich, Switzerland
 
Canada’s Potential Evapotranspiration Increases Under Climate Change (1124710)
Elmira Hassanzadeh, Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal, Département des génies civil, géologique et des mines, Montreal, QC, Canada, Sarah-Claude Bourdeau-Goulet, Ouranos, Montreal, QC, Canada and Ali Nazemi, Concordia University, Department of Building, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Montreal, QC, Canada
 
Towards a U.S. Continuity Framework for Satellite Observations of Earth’s Climate and to Support Societal Resilience (1124896)
Duane Edward Waliser, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, Elizabeth C Weatherhead, U. Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, Tapio Schneider, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States and The Keck Institute for Space Studies Team for the Study on Towards a U.S. Continuity Framework for Satellite Observations for Climate
 
Surface Warming in the Gulf Stream Region Explains Barents-Kara Sea-Ice Decrease (1133937)
Yoko Yamagami, JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan, Masahiro Watanabe, University of Tokyo, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, Bunkyo-ku, Japan, Masato Mori, Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Kasuga, Japan and Jun Ono, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan
 
Characteristics and Synoptic Patterns of Marine Heatwaves and their Drivers in the Tasman Sea (1134223)
Youstina Elzahaby1, Amandine Schaeffer1, Moninya Roughan2 and Sébastien Delaux3, (1)University of New South Wales, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Sydney, NSW, Australia, (2)University of New South Wales, Biological Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney, NSW, Australia, (3)Metocean Solutions, A division of Meteorological Service of New Zealand, Wellington, New Zealand
 
Is Your Ensemble of CMIP6 Models Consistent with IPCC AR6? (1144835)
Vincent Humphrey, Anna Merrifield and Reto Knutti, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
 
Influence of Climatology definition on the Prediction skill of CMIP6 Decadal hindcast experiments. (1144871)
Jivesh Dixit1, Vikram M Mehta1,2 and Krishna M Achutarao1, (1)Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi, India, (2)CRCES, Catonsville, MD, United States
 
Persistent Threat to Coastal Ecosystems from Marine Heatwaves (1148686)
Xiuwen Guo1, Yang Gao2, Shaoqing Zhang3, Lixin Wu3, Ping Chang4, Wenju Cai5, Jakob Zscheischler6, L. Ruby Leung7, Justin Small8, Gokhan Danabasoglu8, LuAnne Thompson9 and Huiwang Gao3, (1)Rizhao, Shandong, CHINA, (2)Ocean University of China, Key Laboratory of Marine Environment and Ecology, Ministry of Education of China, Qingdao, China, (3)Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China, (4)Texas A & M Univ, Oceanography, College Station, United States, (5)Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, VIC, Australia, (6)Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ Leipzig, Department of Computational Hydrosystems, Leipzig, Germany, (7)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Richland, WA, United States, (8)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (9)University of Washington, Oceanography, Seattle, WA, United States
 
Predictability of Persistent Marine Heatwaves in the Extratropical Pacific (1153734)
Evan Meeker1, Elizabeth Maroon1, LuAnne Thompson2, Stephen G Yeager3 and Anna-Lena Deppenmeier4, (1)University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States, (2)University of Washington, Oceanography, Seattle, WA, United States, (3)NCAR, Oceanography, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Regional Climate Change at Various Global Warming Levels: Role of Warming Rate and Scenario Differences (1154845)
Andrea Dittus, University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, RG6, United Kingdom and Ed Hawkins, University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, United Kingdom
 
Reconciling Differences in Biogeophysical Effects of Deforestation in Observations and CMIP6 Models (1160823)
Nikolina Mileva and Wolfgang Buermann, University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany
 
Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Develop an Observationally Constrained Ensemble of Downscaled Earth System Models to Support the Fifth U.S. National Climate Assessment (1164649)
Elias Charbel Massoud, University of California Berkeley, Environmental Science, Policy, & Management, Berkeley, CA, United States, Huikyo Lee, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Caltech, Altadena, CA, United States, Adrienne Wootten, University of Oklahoma Norman Campus, Norman, United States and Adam J Terando, US Geological Survey, Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, Raleigh, NC, United States
 
An Analysis of Mangrove Resistance and Resilience in the Philippines Following Super Typhoon Odette (1167379)
Madeline Kronebusch1, David Lagomasino2, Amanda Payton3, John P Walsh4, Andre Uychiaoco5 and Nygiel Armada5, (1)Virginia Tech, Department of Geosciences, Blacksburg, United States, (2)East Carolina University, Integrated Coastal Programs, Wanchese, United States, (3)East Carolina University, Coastal Studies Institute, Greenville, United States, (4)Coastal Resources Center, Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, United States, (5)USAID Fish Right Program, Manilla, Philippines
 
How Much Is the Recent High Missouri River Flow Due to Climate Change? (1168574)
Andrew Hoell, NOAA Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, Martin P Hoerling, NOAA, Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States and Xiao-Wei Quan, NOAA, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Use of High-resolution Large Ensemble Simulations for Attribution and Prediction of Extreme Events (1169454)
Yukiko Imada, Meteorological Research Institute / Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan and Scientific Team of d4PDF
 
Improving Southern Ocean Climate and Ice-shelf Basal Melt Rates in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) v2 with Regional Mesh Refinement (1183498)
Carolyn Branecky Begeman1, Xylar Asay-Davis2, Alice Barthel3, Darin Scott Comeau4, Matthew J Hoffman5, Wuyin Lin6, Mark R Petersen4, Stephen F Price4, Andrew Roberts3, Milena Veneziani4, Luke Van Roekel2 and Jonathan D Wolfe4, (1)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics, Los Alamos, NM, United States, (2)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics Group, Los Alamos, United States, (3)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, United States, (4)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States, (5)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics, Los Alamos, United States, (6)Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY, United States
 
Combining Climate Models, Observations and Deep Learning for Multi-year Climate Prediction (1183932)
Frances V Davenport and Elizabeth A Barnes, Colorado State University, Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, United States
 
Greater Rate of Köppen-Geiger Climate Zone Change in CMIP6 Earth System Models (1187838)
Ali Serkan Bayar1, M Tugrul Yilmaz1, Ismail Yucel1 and Paul Dirmeyer2, (1)Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey, (2)COLA, Fairfax, VA, United States
 
Advancing Arctic Climate Prediction Capability from Sub-seasonal to Decadal Time Scales (1191390)
Wieslaw Maslowski1, Younjoo Lee1, Anthony Craig1, Mark W Seefeldt2, Robert Osinski3, John J Cassano4 and Jaclyn L Clement Kinney1, (1)Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, United States, (2)Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)Institute of Oceanology Polish Academy of Sciences, Sopot, Poland, (4)Univ Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States
 
An increase in marine heatwaves despite no significant changes in surface ocean temperature variability (1194098)
Tongtong Xu, NOAA/PSL, Boulder, CO, UNITED STATES, Matthew Newman, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, United States, Antonietta Capotondi, University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States, Samantha Stevenson, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Brown University, Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Providence, United States and Michael A Alexander, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Science Division, Boulder, United States
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