GC057
MultiSector Dynamics: Adapting Energy Systems to a Changing Climate by Overcoming Disconnects between Energy System and Climate Modeling

Session ID#: 160453

Session Description:
Human and economic health and wellbeing depend on access to reliable, affordable, and clean energy. Non-stationary meteorological conditions driven by climate change pose risks to the reliability, affordability, and cleanliness of energy systems. These risks can arise from intensifying extremes in the short-run (e.g., through 2030) or from shifts in average conditions in the long-run (e.g., through 2050). Power system reliability failures over the last few years, e.g. in Texas and California during extreme cold, extreme heat, and wildfires, underscore the need to grapple proactively with changing weather conditions. This session welcomes submissions for basic or applied research at the interface of climate, weather, and energy system disciplines. We welcome inter- or intra-disciplinary submissions, although preference will be given to inter-disciplinary submissions.
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]
6309 Decision making under uncertainty [POLICY SCIENCES & PUBLIC ISSUES]

Primary Convener:  Michael Craig, University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
Conveners:  Ana Dyreson, National Renewable Energy Laboratory Golden, Strategic Energy Analysis Center, Golden, CO, United States, Oriana Chegwidden, CarbonPlan, San Francisco, United States and Julie K Lundquist, University of Colorado Boulder, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Integrated Decision Support for Adapting the Power Grid to Climate Change: Resilient Infrastructure Planning via Transdisciplinary Modeling (Invited) (1194196)
Zong-Liang Yang1, Erhan Kutanoglu2, Surya Santoso3, John Hasenbein4, Sabiha Tabassum5, Joshua Yip6, Brent G Austgen6 and Carey King7, (1)University of Texas at Austin, Jackson School of Geosciences, Austin, TX, United States, (2)The University of Texas at Austin, Operations Research and Industrial Engineering, Austin, TX, United States, (3)University of Texas at Austin, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Austin, TX, United States, (4)University of Texas at Austin, Operations Research and Industrial Engineering, Austin, TX, United States, (5)University of Texas at Austin, Jackson School of Geosciences, Austin, United States, (6)The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, United States, (7)University of Texas at Austin, Energy Institute, Austin, TX, United States
 
Coevolution of future water, energy and land systems across the United States in response to national and global socioeconomic, climate, and energy policy drivers. (1048865)
Zarrar Khan1, Mengqi Zhao2, Hamza Ahsan3, Paul Wolfram3, Chris R Vernon2, Jennie Rice2, Gokul Iyer3, Matthew Binsted4, Abigail Snyder3 and Page Kyle3, (1)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States, (2)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, United States, (3)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI), College Park, United States, (4)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, United States
 
Helios: An R Package to Process Heating and Cooling Degrees for an Integrated Model of Global Energy-Water-Land Dynamics (1067410)
Mengqi Zhao1, Zarrar Khan2, Chris R Vernon1 and Jennie Rice1, (1)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, United States, (2)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States
 
Remarkable Reduction of CO2 Emission by Re-Commissioning Nuclear Power Plants with Renewable Energies of Advancing Solar and Off-shore Wind - Using Collapse-Free Tsunami Embankments at 30 Reactors by 2030 in Japan - (1078335)
Daijiro Kaneko, Remote Sensing Environmental Monitor, Inc., President, Yokohama, Japan
 
Identifying Robust Energy Decarbonization Pathways under Climate Uncertainty (1089778)
Srihari Sundar, University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Aerospace Engineering, Ann Arbor, MI, United States and Michael Craig, University of Michigan, School for Environment and Sustainability, Ann Arbor, United States
 
Observed synergistic effects of wind and solar resource blending on capacity credit at increasing regional grid penetration levels (1097140)
Jethro Ssengonzi, North Carolina State University Raleigh, Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, Raleigh, United States and Jeremiah Johnson, North Carolina State University, Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, Raleigh, United States
 
Future of Arctic Offshore Oil and Gas as Sea Ice Thins under Climate Change (1100424)
Ying Zhang1,2, Siwa Msangi1,2, Stephanie Waldhoff1,3 and James Edmonds1,4, (1)Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States, (2)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States, (3)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, United States, (4)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, United States
 
Changes in the Neutralizing Distance of Thermal Pollution Caused by Thermal Power Plants in Warmer Climate Scenarios (1103032)
Kedar Otta1,2, Daisuke Tokuda2, Hyungjun Kim2,3 and Taikan Oki4, (1)National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Centre for Climate Change Adaptation, Tsukuba, Japan, (2)The University of Tokyo, Institute of Industrial Science, Tokyo, Japan, (3)Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon, South Korea, (4)The University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Engineering, Tokyo, Japan
 
Hourly Historical and Near-Future Weather and Climate Variables for Energy System Modelling (Invited) (1108638)
Hannah Bloomfield1,2, David Brayshaw2, Matthew Deakin3 and David Greenwood3, (1)University of Bristol, School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol, BS8, United Kingdom, (2)University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom, (3)Newcastle University, Tyne and Wear, United Kingdom
 
The Impact of Land and Water Use Changes on Climate-Land-Energy-Water (CLEW) Nexus in the Bakhtegan Basin, Iran (1114725)
Alireza Bakhshaee1, Farhad Jazaei2, Ali Torabi Haghighi3, Muhammad Masood Ashiq2 and Ahmed Shakir Ali2, (1)University of Memphis, Civil Engineering, Memphis, TN, United States, (2)University of Memphis, Civil Engineering, Memphis, United States, (3)University of Oulu, Water, Energy and Environmental Engineering Research Unit, Oulu, Finland
 
Elevated Urban Energy Risks due to Climate-driven Biophysical Feedbacks (1126487)
Xinchang Li1, Lei Zhao1, Yue Qin2, Keith W Oleson3 and Yiwen Zhang1, (1)University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Urbana, IL, United States, (2)Peking University, Beijing, China, (3)Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
 
A Scalable Approach to Develop Electricity Grid Models for Stress Testing to Diverse and Compounded Hydrometeorological Extremes and Climate Change: U.S. Western Interconnection Case (1131440)
Kerem Ziya Akdemir1, Konstantinos Oikonomou2, Jordan D Kern1 and Nathalie Voisin2, (1)North Carolina State University, Forestry and Environmental Resources, Raleigh, United States, (2)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, United States
 
Using Climate Data to Inform Energy System Planning: Learnings and Open Questions from Southern California Edison's Climate Adaptation Vulnerability Assessment (1131530)
Anna Brockway and Alex M Pusch, Southern California Edison, Climate Adaptation & Resilience Planning, Rosemead, United States
 
Climate and Water Risk to the Bulk Power System: Asset to Grid Impacts (Invited) (1154151)
Ariel Miara1, Nicole Jackson2, Henriette I. Jager3, Nalini S. Rao4, Erik Shuster5, Fabio Corsi6, Stuart Michael Cohen7, Marty Schwarz8, Sarah Awara8, Nicholas Gilroy8, Paul Susmarski8, Hussain Haider Bokhari9, Daniel Vignoles10, Balazs M Fekete11, Jordan Macknick12 and Charles J. Vörösmarty13, (1)National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Denver, CO, United States, (2)Sandia National Lab, Sandia, United States, (3)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, (4)Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, United States, (5)National Energy Technology Laboratory, Pittsburgh, United States, (6)CUNY City College of New York, New York, NY, United States, (7)National Renewable Energy Laboratory Golden, Golden, CO, United States, (8)National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, United States, (9)CUNY Advanced Science Research Center at The Graduate Center, Environmental Sciences Initiative, New York, NY, United States, (10)CUNY AAdvanced Science Research Center at The Graduate Center, Environmental Sciences Initiative, New York, United States, (11)CUNY City College, New York, NY, United States, (12)National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO, United States, (13)CUNY City College of New York, Civil Engineering, New York, NY, United States
 
Climate Extremes and the Future of the Power Sector in the U.S. Heartland: A Multi-Sector Dynamics Perspective (1158313)
Angelo Gurgel1, C Adam Schlosser1, Mei Yuan1, Xiang Gao1, Karen Tapia-Ahumada2, Jennifer F Morris1 and John M Reilly1, (1)Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA, United States, (2)Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, United States
 
Developing Carbon Emissions Intensity Curves for Thermal Power Plants (1168282)
Joshua Chadney, Invenia Labs, Cambridge, United Kingdom
 
Climate change, hydrological variability, and declining cost of renewables reduce economic viability of African hydropower potential (1174044)
Angelo Carlino1, Matthias Wildemeersch2, Sebastian Sterl3, Celray James Chawanda3, Ann van Griensven3, Wim Thiery3, Matteo Giuliani4 and Andrea Castelletti1, (1)Politecnico di Milano, Department of Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering, Milano, Italy, (2)IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, (3)Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Brussel, Belgium, (4)Politecnico di Milano, Department of Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering, Milano, 20133, Italy
 
Changing Climate, Peak Demand and Load Factors across the contiguous United States (1176262)
Yash Vijay Amonkar, Columbia University of New York, Earth and Environmental Engineering, New York, NY, United States, James Doss-Gollin, Rice University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Houston, TX, United States, David J Farnham, Columbia University, Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, New York, NY, United States; Carnegie Institution for Science, Department of Global Ecology, Stanford, United States, Vijay Modi, Columbia University of New York, Mechanical Engineering, New York, NY, United States and Upmanu Lall, Columbia University, Earth and Environmental Engineering, New York, United States
 
Bayesian hierarchical variance estimation to evaluate the vulnerability of thermo-electric power plants to hydrometeorological stressors (1185395)
Allison Campbell1, Ana Dyreson2, Nathalie Voisin1, Cameron Bracken3, Jonathan Aurand4 and Ariel Miara5, (1)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, United States, (2)Michigan Technological University, Mechanical Engineering - Engineering Mechanics, Houghton, MI, United States, (3)University of Colorado at Boulder, Civil Engineering, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)Michigan Technological University, Houghton, United States, (5)National Renewable Energy Laboratory Fort Collins, Fort Collins, United States
 
Climate Change Undermines Supply-Demand Match of Global Wind and Solar Energy Systems (1192525)
Mengxi Wu1, Laibao Liu2,3, Gang He4, Haoran Zhang5, Gang Liu3, Jiashu Shen3 and Shuangcheng Li3, (1)University of California Los Angeles, Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science & Engineering, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (2)ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, (3)Peking University, Beijing, China, (4)Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, United States, (5)Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanographic Administration of China, Hangzhou, China
 
Understanding How The Energy System Adapts To Weather Extremes And Climate Change (1192885)
Donatella Pasqualini1, Andre' Green2, Jose Tabarez2 and William Rosenberger2, (1)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States, (2)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, United States
 
Southern Africa’s Future Low-carbon Electricity System under a Changing Climate (1200779)
Ranjit Deshmukh, University of California Santa Barbara, Environmental Studies Department, Santa Barbara, United States, A.F.M. Kamal Chowdhury, University of Maryland College Park, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD, United States, Haozhe Yang, Peking University, Beijing, China, Piotr Wolski, Climate System Analysis Group, University of CAPE TOWN, ENVIRONMENTAL AND GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCE, Cape Town, South Africa, Grace C. Wu, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States and Ana Mileva, Blue Marble Analytics, San Francisco, United States
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