NH008
Earthquake Scenario Development, Deployment, and Uses

Session ID#: 160922

Session Description:
The development of realistic and useful earthquake scenarios takes many forms because they are needed for a variety of uses and users. Seismologists deploy complex faulting and 3D simulations to make ground motions as realistic as possible; engineers are engaged to evaluate structural and infrastructure responses are accurately depicted; and social scientists and urban planners ensure societal impacts and equitable recovery concerns are considered. Although they are important, the user interface and the useability earthquake information product injects are considered less frequently, and the consequences of concern from the users’ perspective are not fully appreciated. This session aims to gather those concerned with the accuracy of scientific and engineering aspects of earthquake and other natural hazard scenarios as well as those on the planning, delivery, and science communication sides of earthquake scenario development.
Index Terms:

4332 Disaster resilience [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4335 Disaster management [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4336 Economic impacts of disasters [NATURAL HAZARDS]
7212 Earthquake ground motions and engineering seismology [SEISMOLOGY]

Primary Convener:  Yolanda Lin, University of New Mexico Main Campus, Geography and Environmental Studies, Albuquerque, NM, United States
Conveners:  Janise Ellen Rodgers, GeoHazards International, Menlo Park, United States and David J Wald, USGS Geologic Hazards Science Center, Golden, United States
Student/Early Career Convener:  Elizabeth M Sherrill, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, United States
 
A Continuing, Holistic Earthquake Scenario Development and Delivery Strategy at the U.S. Geological Survey (Invited) (1048302)
Eric Thompson1, Brad Aagaard1, Rob Chase1, Davis Engler1, Kishor Jaiswal1, Kuowan Lin1, Yolanda Lin2, Nico Luco1, Kristin Marano1, Vincent Paul R Quitoriano1, C. Bruce Worden1 and David J Wald1, (1)USGS Geologic Hazards Science Center, Golden, United States, (2)University of New Mexico Main Campus, Geography and Environmental Studies, Albuquerque, NM, United States
 
The HayWired Earthquake Sequence Scenario in the San Francisco Bay Area, California, U.S. (1064711)
Anne M Wein, U. S. Geological Survey, Western Geographic Science Center, Moffett Field, United States and Keith A Porter, The Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, Toronto, ON, Canada
 
Demonstrating the High Probability of Successive Occurrence of Nankai Megathrust Earthquakes (1071416)
Yo Fukushima, Tohoku University, International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Sendai, Japan, Tomoaki Nishikawa, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan and Yasuyuki Kano, Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
 
Importance of Deterministic Earthquake Scenarios when Assessing Hazard in Low-Seismicity, Stable Continental Regions: A Case Study from Indiana, USA (1094510)
Elizabeth M Sherrill, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN, United States, Michael W Hamburger, Indiana University Bloomington, Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, Bloomington, IN, United States and Anna Jessee, Indiana University Purdue University Indianapolis, Earth Sciences, Indianapolis, IN, United States
 
Alpine Fault Scenario-based Response Planning and Public Education for disaster risk reduction in Aotearoa – New Zealand. (1130644)
Caroline Orchiston, University of Otago, Centre for Sustainability, School of Geography, Dunedin, New Zealand, Thomas M Wilson, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand, Alice Lake-Hammond, Environment Southland, Emergency Management Southland, Invercargill, New Zealand and Liam Wotherspoon, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
 
Current challenges to creating and exercising effective earthquake scenarios in low to moderate seismic zones (1151962)
Yolanda Lin, University of New Mexico Main Campus, Geography and Environmental Studies, Albuquerque, NM, United States and Pratistha Sharma, University of New Mexico Main Campus, Geography and Environmental Studies, Albuquerque, United States
 
Analysis of Hazards Associated with Earthquake-Triggered Landslides in Costa Rica using Scenario Earthquakes (1153211)
Michael W Hamburger, Indiana University Bloomington, Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, Bloomington, IN, United States, Dylan Seal, Boston College, Earth & Environmental Sciences, Chestnut Hill, United States; Indiana University Bloomington, Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, Bloomington, United States, Martha Anna Nowicki Jessee, Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis, Earth Sciences, Indianapolis, United States, Carter W Dills, Indiana University Bloomington, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Bloomington, IN, United States and Paulo Ruiz, University of Costa Rica, Lanamme, San Jose, Costa Rica
 
Examining the Characteristics of Effective Disaster Scenarios: A Comparative Analysis (Invited) (1159104)
Nnenia M. Campbell1, Sue Ann Sarpy2, Janise Ellen Rodgers3, Arrietta Chakos4, Heidi D. Stenner5, Upama Ojha3, Delka Espinal3 and Julie Jomo3, (1)University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)Sarpy and Associates, Charlottesville, United States, (3)GeoHazards International, Menlo Park, United States, (4)Urban Resilience Strategies, Berkeley, CA, United States, (5)Organization Not Listed, Washington, DC, United States
 
Improving Scenario Effectiveness in Motivating Mitigation for Geologic Hazards (1169675)
Janise Ellen Rodgers1, Heidi D. Stenner2, Nnenia M. Campbell3, Sue Ann Sarpy4, Arrietta Chakos5, Delka Espinal1, Upama Ojha1, Julie Jomo1, Lalrinpuii Tlau6, Yeshey Lotay1, Hari Kumar7, Veronica Cedillos1, Jack W Baker8 and Lu Tang8, (1)GeoHazards International, Menlo Park, United States, (2)GeoHazards International, Richland, United States, (3)University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)Sarpy and Associates, Charlottesville, United States, (5)Urban Resilience Strategies, Berkeley, CA, United States, (6)GeoHazards International, Menlo Park, CA, United States, (7)GeoHazards International, New Delhi, India, (8)Stanford University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford, United States
 
Earthquake Scenarios for Risk Management: A Case Study of Three Cities in Latin America (1181180)
Kishor Jaiswal1, Alejandro Calderon2, Catalina Yepes-Estrada2 and Rob Chase1, (1)USGS Geologic Hazards Science Center, Golden, United States, (2)Global Earthquake Model Foundation, Pavia, Italy
 
Earthquake scenario by GeoHazards International led Aizawl Municipal Corporation to take big steps in landslide risk mitigation (1197484)
Lalrinpuii Tlau, GeoHazards International, Menlo Park, CA, United States, Zohming Thanga, Aizawl Municipal Corporation, Aizawl, India, Hari Kumar, GeoHazards International, New Delhi, India, Janise Ellen Rodgers, GeoHazards International, Menlo Park, United States and Heidi D. Stenner, Organization Not Listed, Washington, DC, United States; GeoHazards International, Richland, United States
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