OS001
Advances in Understanding Global Meridional Overturning Circulation from Past to Future: Insights from Multiple Approaches

Session ID#: 162828

Session Description:
The Global Meridional Overturning Circulation is a major driver of Earth's climate, connecting the Atlantic, Pacific and Southern Oceans and influencing biogeochemical cycling on many timescales. Modern oceanographic observations and modeling studies are making great advances in understanding GMOC dynamics and predictability over seasonal to decadal periods. Meanwhile, paleoclimate observations and modeling studies have highlighted connections between the climate and variations in the structure and magnitude of GMOC over multi-decadal to tectonic timescales. Much remains to be understood about the interplay between GMOC changes and the cryosphere, atmosphere, and ocean biogeochemistry, as well as mechanisms driving past, present, future GMOC variations. Modern and Paleo approaches are complementary and bring new insights into GMOC dynamics and predictability under future climate conditions. This session welcomes theoretical, modeling, and observation-based studies that investigate the nature, stability and sensitivity of the GMOC to external forcing and internal feedbacks across seasonal-to-tectonic timescales.
Co-Organized:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • C - Cryosphere
  • GC - Global Environmental Change
  • PP - Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
Index Terms:

0724 Ice cores [CRYOSPHERE]
4805 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling [OCEANOGRAPHY: BIOLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL]
4901 Abrupt/rapid climate change [PALEOCEANOGRAPHY]
4962 Thermohaline [PALEOCEANOGRAPHY]

Primary Convener:  Feng He, University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States
Conveners:  Kelly H Kilbourne, University of Maryland (UMCES CBL), Solomons, MD, United States, Maureen H Walczak, Oregon State University, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Corvallis, United States and Michael A Spall, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA, United States
 
AMOC Stability in GISS-E2-1-G: a case of stochastic bifurcation (1045597)
Anastasia Romanou1, David H Rind2, Jeffrey Jonas2, Ron L Miller3, Maxwell Kelley4, Gary L Russell4, Clara Orbe3, Larissa Nazarenko3, Rebecca Latto5 and Gavin A Schmidt6, (1)NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and Dept of Applied Phys. and Applied Math., Columbia University, New York, NY, United States, (2)NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States, (3)NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States, (4)NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York City, NY, United States, (5)Columbia University of New York, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, NY, United States, (6)NASA/GISS, New York, United States
 
Variability and trends of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in the eddy-rich ocean model VIKING20X (1046063)
Arne Biastoch, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany and GEOMAR Ocean Modelling group
 
Lagrangian analysis of the global routes of the mid-depth meridional overturning circulation (Invited) (1046894)
Paola Cessi, University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States and Louise Rousselet, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, United States
 
Global reorganization of deep-sea circulation and carbon storage after the last ice age (1062922)
Patrick A Rafter1, William Robert Gray2, Sophia Hines3, Andrea Burke4, Kassandra Costa5, Julia Gottschalk6, Mathis Hain7, James William Buchanan Rae8, John Richard Southon1, Maureen H Walczak9, Jimin Yu10, Jess F Adkins11 and Timothy J DeVries12, (1)University of California Irvine, Earth System Science, Irvine, United States, (2)Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE/IPSL), London, France, (3)Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry, Woods Hole, MA, United States, (4)University of St Andrews, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, St Andrews, KY16, United Kingdom, (5)Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Department of Geology & Geophysics, Woods Hole, United States, (6)Kiel University, Kiel, Germany, (7)University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, United States, (8)University of St Andrews, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, St Andrews, United Kingdom, (9)Oregon State University, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Corvallis, United States, (10)Australian National University, Research School of Earth Sciences, Canberra, ACT, Australia, (11)California Institute of Technology, Geological and Planetary Sciences, Pasadena, CA, United States, (12)University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States
 
Trading off sinking between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans- A six box model (1063282)
Anand Gnanadesikan, Johns Hopkins University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Baltimore, MD, United States, Marie-Aude Sabine Pradal, Johns Hopkins Univ, Baltimore, United States and G. Jay Brett, Applied Physics Laboratory Johns Hopkins, Laurel, United States
 
Deepening of Southern Ocean Gateway Leads to Abrupt Onset of Vigorous Meridional Overturning Circulation (1064901)
Qianjiang Xing1, Andreas Klocker2, David Roy Munday3, Joanne M Whittaker1 and Isabel Sauermilch4, (1)University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia, (2)Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway, (3)British Antarctic Survey, Polar Oceans, Cambridge, United Kingdom, (4)Utrecht University, Department of Earth Sciences, Utrecht, Netherlands
 
Variability of North Atlantic Water Mass Properties over the past 20 years (1068506)
Anne-Sophie Fortin, Georgia Tech Research Institute, Atlanta, GA, United States and Susan Lozier, Duke University, Durham, United States
 
Dispersal of Glacial Meltwater in the Western North Atlantic – Role of Dynamical Instabilities (1069655)
Olivier Marchal, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States and Alan Condron, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole, MA, United States
 
An Estimate of Antarctic Bottom Water Export Variability from GRACE Satellite Data (1070642)
Jemma Jeffree1, Andrew M Hogg1, Adele K Morrison1, Aviv Solodoch2, Andrew Stewart2 and Paul Tregoning1, (1)Australian National University, Research School of Earth Sciences, Canberra, ACT, Australia, (2)University of California Los Angeles, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, United States
 
Meridional Overturning Circulation from Satellite Observables: a State Estimate Test (1071436)
Aviv Solodoch1, Andrew Stewart1, Andrew M Hogg2 and Georgy Manucharyan3, (1)University of California Los Angeles, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, United States, (2)Australian National University, Research School of Earth Sciences, Canberra, ACT, Australia, (3)United States
 
Localization of the Global Overturning Circulation in the Southern Ocean mapped by Thickness-Weighted Velocities (1073653)
Madeleine K Youngs, New York University, New York, NY, United States and Glenn Flierl, MIT, Cambridge, MA, United States
 
Last Millennium Seawater Temperature of the Subpolar North Atlantic: Insights from Cold-water Coral Records (1077986)
Yingchu Shen1, Laura Robinson2, Joseph Stewart2, Yun-Ju Sun2, Maria Luiza De Carvalho Ferreira2, Maoyu Wang2,3, Maria G Prokopenko4, Phoebe Salowey4, Hong Chin Ng2,5, Katharine R Hendry2,6, Jesse R Farmer7 and Daniel Mikhail Sigman7, (1)University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences, Bristol, BS8, United Kingdom, (2)University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom, (3)Nanjing University, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Nanjing, China, (4)Pomona College, Claremont, United States, (5)IFREMER, Plouzané, France, (6)British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom, (7)Princeton University, Department of Geosciences, Princeton, United States
 
Deciphering the migration of the intertropical convergence zone during the last deglaciation (1081539)
Shouwei Li and Wei Liu, University of California Riverside, Riverside, CA, United States
 
A Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Mode Driving Multicentennial AMOC Variability in a Climate Model of Intermediate Complexity (1086853)
Oliver Mehling1, Katinka Bellomo1,2, Michela Angeloni2,3, Claudia Pasquero2,4 and Jost von Hardenberg1,2, (1)Polytechnic University of Turin, Department of Environment, Land and Infrastructure Engineering, Turin, Italy, (2)CNR Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Turin, Italy, (3)University of Bologna, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Bologna, Italy, (4)University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Milan, Italy
 
Comparing Modes of Climate Variability Associated with North Atlantic SST Fingerprints During the 20thCentury and on Millennial Timescales (1087619)
Jack Wharton1, Alice Carter-Champion1, David Fairman1, Lloyd D Keigwin2, Charlotte O'Brien1, Eirini Papachristopoulou1, Peter Timothy Spooner1 and David J Thornalley1, (1)University College London, Dept. of Geography, London, United Kingdom, (2)WHOI, Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole, United States
 
Freshening of the Iceland Basin: Clues from the Grand Banks? (1093079)
Adele Anderson1, Heather H Furey2, Nicholas Foukal2 and Amy S Bower2, (1)Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, United States, (2)Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States
 
Drivers of the Decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under Climate Change in a Hierarchy of Climate Models (1103265)
Carolina O. Dufour, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Canada, Anne-Sophie Fortin, Georgia Tech Research Institute, Atlanta, United States, Timothy M Merlis, Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, United States and Rym Msadek, CECI, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, CERFACS, Toulouse, France
 
Multi-decadal and centennial modes of AMOC variability and their dependence on mean state in a climate model (1103379)
Brady S Ferster1, Alexey V Fedorov1,2, Juliette Mignot1 and Eric Guilyardi3,4, (1)LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS-IRD-MNHN-Sorbonne Université, Paris, France, (2)Yale University, New Haven, United States, (3)LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS/IRD/MNHN/Sorbonne Université, Paris, France, (4)NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
 
Revisit IMOC seasonality (1104856)
Lei Han, Xiamen University Malaysia, Sepang, Malaysia
 
Human-induced changes in the global meridional overturning circulation are emerging from the Southern Ocean (1105773)
Sang-Ki Lee1, Rick Lumpkin2, Fabian A Gomez3, Stephen G Yeager4, Hosmay Lopez5, Filippos Tagklis6, Shenfu Dong7, Wilton Aguiar Carvalho Silva Filho8, Dongmin Kim9 and Molly O'Neil Baringer2, (1)Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, FL, United States, (2)NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL, United States, (3)Mississippi State University, Northern Gulf Institute, Mississippi State, MS, United States, (4)NCAR, Oceanography, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, FL, United States, (6)University of Miami, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Miami, United States, (7)AOML/NOAA, Miami, FL, United States, (8)Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies Miami, Miami, United States, (9)UM-CIMAS/NOAA-AOML, Miami, FL, United States
 
Evidence for Extensive Sea-Ice Cover During the Little Ice Age Revealed by Isotopes of Dissolved Oxygen (1108279)
Hezi Gildor1, Israela Musan1, Eugeni Barkan2, William M Smethie Jr3 and Boaz Luz1, (1)Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel, (2)Hebrew University of Jerusalem, The Fredy & Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Jerusalem, Israel, (3)Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States
 
Drivers of mid-depth Pacific cooling trends in an ocean reanalysis (1109916)
Anthony Meza, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts Institute of Technology-Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Joint Program in Oceanography/Applied Ocean Science and Engineering,, Woods Hole, United States and Geoffrey Gebbie, Woods Hole Oceanographic Inst., Physical Oceanography, Woods Hole, MA, United States
 
What Determines the Pathways of Iceland-Scotland Overflow Water in the Eastern North Atlantic? (1122584)
Amy S Bower1, Andrée Ramsey1, Heather H Furey1 and Susan Lozier2, (1)Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States, (2)Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, United States
 
Topographic Controls on the Interior Pathways of the MOC (1122848)
Tatsu Monkman, University of Chicago, Chicago, United States and Malte Jansen, University of Chicago, Department of the Geophysical Sciences, Chicago, IL, United States
 
Uncertainty in projecting regional sea level change due to the internal climate variability (1136320)
Aixue Hu, Gerald Meehl, Nan A Rosenbloom and Gary Strand, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Monitoring Local Heat Content Changes with Satellite Altimetry and Space Gravimetry to Assess the Variability of the Meridional Heat Transport in the North Atlantic: the 4DATLANTIC-OHC Project (1140765)
Robin Fraudeau1, Mickael Ablain2, Gilles Larnicol1, Florence Marti1, Alejandro Blazquez3, Victor Rousseau1, Benoit Meyssignac3, Giuseppe Foti4, Francisco M Calafat5, Matthew Hammond6, Damien Desbruyères7, William Llovel8, Odilon Joël Houndegnonto7, Pablo Ortega9, Vladimir Lapin10, Mar Rodriguez11, Rachel Elizabeth Killick12, Nick A Rayner12, Marie Drevillon13, Karina von Shuckmann14, Marco Restano15 and Jérôme Benveniste16, (1)Magellium, Earth Observation, Ramonville St Agne, France, (2)Magellium, Earth Observation, Ramonville-Saint-Agne, France, (3)LEGOS-CNES, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, UPS, IRD, Toulouse, France, (4)National Oceanography Centre, Marine Physics and Ocean Climate, Southampton, United Kingdom, (5)National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, United Kingdom, (6)National Oceangraphy Centre, Southampton, United Kingdom, (7)LOPS (IFREMER, CNRS, IRD, IUEM), Brest, France, (8)Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Saptiale, Univ Brest/CNRS/Ifremer/IRD, Plouzané, France, (9)Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Earth Sciences, Barcelona, Spain, (10)Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain, (11)Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Earth Sciences, Barcelone, Spain, (12)Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom, (13)Mercator Océan, Ramonville Saint Agne, France, (14)Mercator Ocean, Toulouse, France, (15)SERCO for European Space Agency, Frascati, Italy, (16)European Space Agency (ESA-ESRIN), Earth Observation Programmes, Frascati, Italy
 
The Contribution of Iceland-Scotland Overflow to the 20th Century Weakening of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation (1142490)
David J Thornalley1,2, Delia Oppo2, Wanyi Lu2, Ian R Hall3, I.N. Nicholas McCave4 and Lloyd D Keigwin2, (1)University College London, Dept. of Geography, London, United Kingdom, (2)WHOI, Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole, United States, (3)Cardiff University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Cardiff, United Kingdom, (4)University of Cambridge, Earth Sciences, Cambridge, United Kingdom
 
Deep Sea Coral Skeleton-Bound δ15N as a Proxy for Late Holocene variability in the Subpolar North Atlantic hydrography (1146350)
Maria G Prokopenko, Pomona College, Geology, Claremont, United States, Phoebe Salowey, Pomona College, Claremont, United States, Jesse R Farmer, Princeton University, Department of Geosciences, Princeton, United States, Yingchu Shen, University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences, Bristol, BS8, United Kingdom, Daniel Mikhail Sigman, Princeton University, Geosciences, Princeton, United States, Austin Cordova, Pomona College, Claremont, CA, United States and Laura Robinson, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
 
Mean State AMOC Affects AMOC Weakening through Subsurface Warming in the Labrador Sea (1150077)
Yuan-Jen Lin, Columbia University of New York, Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, United States, Brian E J Rose, University at Albany State University of New York, Department of Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences, Albany, United States and Yen-Ting Hwang, National Taiwan University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Taipei, Taiwan
 
Inter-ocean glacial-interglacial variability in Antarctic Intermediate Water circulation (1150566)
Natalie Umling1,2, Cassandre Rose Rose Stirpe3, Elisabeth L Sikes4, Shun-Chung Yang5, Katherine A Allen6, Prof Seth John5 and Nathalie Goodkin2, (1)Rutgers University, New Brunswick, United States, (2)American Museum of Natural History, New York, United States, (3)University of Maine, Orono, United States, (4)Rutgers University, Piscataway, United States, (5)University of Southern California, Department of Earth Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (6)University of Maine, Earth & Climate Sciences, Orono, ME, United States
 
Deep North Atlantic Last Glacial Maximum Salinity Reconstruction (1167440)
Kira Homola1, Arthur J Spivack2, Richard Murray3, Robert A. Pockalny1, Steven D'Hondt4 and Rebecca S Robinson5, (1)University of Rhode Island, Graduate School of Oceanography, Narragansett, RI, United States, (2)University of Rhode Island - GSO, Narragansett, United States, (3)Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States, (4)University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI, United States, (5)University of Rhode Island, Graduate School of Oceanography, Narragansett, United States
 
Analysis of the Seasonal and Interannual Variability Using Cost-Effective Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Estimation at 22.5°S (1167745)
Ivenis Pita, Miami, Florida, UNITED STATES and Marlos P Goes, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States
 
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and erosional events across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (1171828)
Joohee Kim1, Cece Bowe2, Leopoldo D Pena3, Maria Jaume Seguí3, Maayan Yehudai4, Allison M Franzese1, Yue Cai5, Louise Bolge1, Sidney R Hemming1 and Steven L Goldstein1, (1)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, United States, (2)Colby College, Waterville, United States, (3)University of Barcelona, Department of Earth and Ocean Dynamics, Barcelona, Spain, (4)Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Climate Geochemistry, Mainz, Germany, (5)Nanjing Institute of Geology and Palaeontology, State Key Laboratory of Palaeobiology and Stratigraphy, Nanjing, China
 
Seasonality of the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Subpolar North Atlantic (1175387)
Yao Fu1, Susan Lozier1 and The OSNAP Team, (1)Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, United States
 
Surface Constraints On The Strength And Structure Of The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation In Coupled Climate Models (1178346)
Manali Nayak, The Ohio State University, Columbus, United States, David B Bonan, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States, Emily Rose Newsom, University of Oxford, Department of Physics, Oxford, United Kingdom and Andrew F Thompson, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States
 
Impact of the North Pacific meltwater events on the thermohaline circulation (1179866)
Chijun Sun1, Bette L Otto-Bliesner2, Jiang Zhu2 and Esther C Brady2, (1)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, United States
 
AMOC Dynamics: Can a Box Model Explain a Global Model? (1182108)
Genevieve Brett1, Larry H White1, Anand Gnanadesikan2, Marie-Aude Sabine Pradal3, Renske Gelderloos4, Thomas W N Haine5, Yannis Kevrekidis6 and Jennifer A. Sleeman7, (1)Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, United States, (2)Johns Hopkins Univ-EPS, Baltimore, MD, United States, (3)Johns Hopkins Univ, Baltimore, United States, (4)Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States, (5)Johns Hopkins Univ, Baltimore, MD, United States, (6)Johns Hopkins Univ, Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, Baltimore, United States, (7)Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD, United States
 
Quantifying Structural Uncertainties in Reconstructions of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability over the Last Millennium (Invited) (1182949)
Daniel E Amrhein, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Is there a Deep Equatorial Upwelling Pathway for the Global Meridional Overturning Circulation? (1185749)
Lynne D Talley, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States
 
What are the dominant atmospheric patterns responsible for surface-forced decadal AMOC variability? (1186900)
Dafydd Stephenson, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Ocean and Earth Science, Boulder, CO, United States, Daniel E Amrhein, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, LuAnne Thompson, University of Washington, Oceanography, Seattle, WA, United States and Noah Abner Rosenberg, University of Washington, School of Oceanography, Seattle, United States
 
Reconstructing Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during Heinrich Stadial 1 using carbon isotopes. (1190488)
Elijah Stahr, Texas Tech University, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Lubbock, United States and Andreas Schmittner, Oregon State University, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Corvallis, United States
 
Tracing North Atlantic Continental Erosion during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition: K-Ar geochronology and mineralogical analyses of Ice Rafted Debris (1195913)
Cece Bowe1, Joohee Kim2, Steven L Goldstein3, Sidney R Hemming3, Bess G Koffman4 and Tasha L Dunn5, (1)Colby College, Waterville, United States, (2)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, United States, (3)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, (4)Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, (5)Colby College, Geology, Waterville, ME, United States
 
Transient and Equilibrium Responses of the Global Meridional Overturning Circulation to Abrupt Greenhouse Gas Forcing (1202660)
Paul Curtis, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States and Alexey V Fedorov, Yale University, New Haven, United States
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