PC010
Near-term Prediction of the Ocean: Physics, Biogeochemistry, and Ecosystems

Session ID#: 84917

Session Description:
Predicting near-term (seasonal to multidecadal) changes in ocean physical and biogeochemical processes and ecosystems is of interest both from a climatic perspective, for resource management, as well as understanding undergoing changes in the marine environment. Recent advances in seasonal to subseasonal (S2S) and subseasonal to decadal (S2D) predictions using data assimilation techniques in ocean and Earth system models have generated a new field of study in near-term ocean predictability. This broad and interdisciplinary topic enriches understanding of physical, chemical, and biological processes and their internal variability apart from anthropogenic forcings through integration of a wide range of observations and model simulations.

In this session we invite studies that contribute to predictions of ocean physics, biogeochemistry, and ecosystems. Both predictions in individual component of the ocean and contributions to the interplay among predictability in the physics, biogeochemistry, and ecosystems are welcome. Moreover, data assimilation and initialization strategies in facilitating initialization of the state-of-the-art Earth system models with observations, together with perfect model framework in understanding the predictability, is particularly relevant to this session.

Index Terms:

4255 Numerical modeling [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
4260 Ocean data assimilation and reanalysis [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
4263 Ocean predictability and prediction [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
4273 Physical and biogeochemical interactions [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]

Primary Chair:  Filippa Fransner, Geophysical Institute Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Co-chairs:  Hongmei Li1, Nicole S Lovenduski2 and Tatiana Ilyina1, (1)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany(2)University of Colorado, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States
Primary Liaison:  Filippa Fransner, Geophysical Institute Bergen, Bergen, Norway
 
Near-term predictions of ocean biogeochemistry in the Community Earth System Model (640474)
Nicole S Lovenduski, University of Colorado, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, Stephen G Yeager, NCAR, Oceanography, Boulder, CO, United States, Riley Xavier Brady, University of Colorado at Boulder, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States and Kristen M. Krumhardt, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
 
An Assessment of Seasonal Forecasts for the Bering Sea Cold Pool (641888)
Kelly Kearney1, Albert J Hermann1, Wei Cheng2 and Kerim Aydin3, (1)University of Washington, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Seattle, WA, United States, (2)Univ of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States, (3)NOAA/Alaska Fisheries Science Center, WA, United States
 
Forecasting the Suitable Spawning Habitat of Blue Whiting beyond Persistence (642863)
Anna K. Miesner1, Corinna Schrum1, Johanna Baehr2 and Mark R Payne3, (1)Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, Geesthacht, Germany, (2)Institute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany, (3)Technical University of Denmark, National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Copenhagen, Denmark
 
Impact of different initialization procedures on near-term predictability of ocean biogeochemistry (645291)
Raffaele Bernardello1, Valentina Sicardi2, Pablo Ortega2, Virginie Guemas2,3 and Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes4,5, (1)Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, Climate prediction, Barcelona, Spain, (2)Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Earth Sciences, Barcelona, Spain, (3)CNRM, Météo-France, Toulouse, France, (4)Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats, Barcelona, Spain, (5)Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
 
Wind-Stress Induced Multi-Year Predictability of Subpolar North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (645301)
Annika Reintges1, Mohammed H Bordbar2, Wonsun Park1 and Mojib Latif1,3, (1)GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany, (2)Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research, Rostock, Germany, (3)University of Kiel, Kiel, Germany
 
Potential predictability of key marine biogeochemical fields: what can be learnt from cross-generation model comparison ? (645318)
Roland Seferian, CNRM (Météo-France/CNRS), Toulouse, France, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, CECI/CERFACS, Toulouse, France and Lauriane Batté, CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
 
Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers (645747)
Thomas L Froelicher1, Luca Ramseyer2, Christoph Raible1 and Keith B Rodgers3, (1)University of Bern, Climate and Environmental Physics, Bern, Switzerland, (2)University of Bern, Switzerland, (3)IBS Center for Climate Physics, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea
 
Prediction skill in the Subpolar North Atlantic and Nordic Seas in the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) (645802)
Leilane G Passos1, Helene R. Langehaug2, Marius Årthun1 and Tor Eldevik1, (1)Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway, (2)Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway
 
Linear Inverse Model Approach to Forecasting Regional Dissolved Oxygen (646150)
Daoxun Sun, Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States and Takamitsu Ito, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, United States
 
Exploring sources of error in decadal predictions of the Pacific surface and sub-surface ocean (646215)
Daniela Faggiani Dias, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, Stephen G Yeager, NCAR, Oceanography, Boulder, CO, United States and Arthur J Miller, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States
 
Reconstruction and prediction of the ocean carbon sink variations (647073)
Hongmei Li, Tatiana Ilyina, Wolfgang A. Müller and Peter Landschuetzer, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
 
Was the 2015 Subpolar North Atlantic Cold Blob Predictable? (647613)
Elizabeth Maroon1, Stephen G Yeager2 and Gokhan Danabasoglu1, (1)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)NCAR, Oceanography, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Seasonal-to-interannual prediction of U.S. coastal marine ecosystems: Forecast methods, mechanisms of predictability, and priority developments (647672)
Michael Jacox1, Michael A Alexander2, Samantha Siedlecki3, Ke Chen4, Young-Oh Kwon5, Stephanie Brodie6, Ivonne Ortiz7, Desiree Tommasi8, Matthew J Widlansky9, Daniel Barrie10, Antonietta Capotondi11, Wei Cheng12, Emanuele Di Lorenzo13, Christopher A Edwards14, Jerome Fiechter15, Paula Sue Fratantoni16, Elliott L. Hazen1, Albert J Hermann17, Arun Kumar18, Arthur J Miller19, Douglas Pirhalla20, Mercedes Pozo Buil21, Sulagna Ray22, Scott C Sheridan23, Aneesh Subramanian24, Philip R Thompson25, Lesley H Thorne26, H Annamalai27, Steven J. Bograd28, Roger Griffis29, Hyemi Kim30, Annarita Mariotti31, Mark Merrifield32 and Ryan R Rykaczewski33, (1)NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Environmental Research Division, Monterey, CA, United States, (2)NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Science Division, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)University of Connecticut, Groton, CT, United States, (4)Woods Hole Oceanographic Inst, Woods Hole, MA, United States, (5)Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Physical Oceanography Department, Woods Hole, MA, United States, (6)University of New South Wales, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Monterey, CA, United States, (7)University of Washington, JISAO, Seattle, WA, United States, (8)Princeton University, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton, NJ, United States, (9)University of Hawaii at Manoa, JIMAR, Honolulu, HI, United States, (10)NOAA Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, MD, United States, (11)University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States, (12)Univ of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States, (13)Georgia Inst Tech, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States, (14)University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, United States, (15)University of California Santa Cruz, Ocean Sciences, Santa Cruz, CA, United States, (16)NOAA NMFS, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Woods Hole, MA, United States, (17)University of Washington, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Seattle, WA, United States, (18)NOAA/NCEP, College Park, MD, United States, (19)University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States, (20)National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, United States, (21)Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States, (22)Princeton University, Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton, NJ, United States, (23)Kent State University Kent Campus, Kent, OH, United States, (24)University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, (25)JIMAR, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, United States, (26)Stony Brook University, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook, NY, United States, (27)University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States, (28)NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Environmental Research Division, Monterey, United States, (29)NOAA, National Marine Fisheries Service, Silver Spring, MD, United States, (30)Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, United States, (31)NOAA, Boulder, CO, United States, (32)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, (33)University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, United States
 
The relationship between the NAO and North Atlantic CO2 flux in winter and summer on the interannual timescale (650224)
Yangchun Li, Institute of Atmos. Phys., Beijing, China, Yuejie Jing, Insitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Scicences, China and Yongfu Xu, IAP, CAS, Beijing, China
 
Potential Predictability Limits of the Global Carbon Cycle (650243)
Aaron Spring and Tatiana Ilyina, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
 
Ocean Biogeochemical Predictions - Initialization and Sources of Predictability (650389)
Filippa Fransner, Geophysical Institute Bergen, Bergen, Norway, Francois Counillon, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre, Bergen, Norway, Ingo Bethke, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway, Jerry Tjiputra, NORCE Climate, Bergen, Norway, Annette Samuelsen, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway, Aleksi Nummelin, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway and Are Olsen, University of Bergen, Geophysical Institute, Bergen, Norway
 
Predictability of variations in the ocean and land carbon sinks in a multi-model framework (650484)
Tatiana Ilyina1, Hongmei Li1, Aaron Spring1, Pierre Friedlingstein2, Nicole S Lovenduski3, Laurent Bopp4, Megumi O. Chikamoto5, John P Dunne6, Jong-Yeon Park7, Roland Séférian8 and Stephen G Yeager9, (1)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, (2)University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom, (3)University of Colorado, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)LSCE Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-Sur-Yvette Cedex, France, (5)IPRC, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, United States, (6)NOAA Geophys Fluid Dynamic, Princeton, United States, (7)Chonbuk National University, South Korea, (8)Meteo-France - CNRS, CNRM, CEN, Toulouse, France, (9)NCAR, Oceanography, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Near-term Ocean Dynamics and Biogeochemical Interactions in the North-Baltic Sea System: A Model Validation (650862)
Itzel Ruvalcaba Baroni1, Elin Almroth-Rosell1, Lars Axell1, Christian Dieterich1, Matthias Gröger1,2, Jenny Hieronymus1, Irene Wåhlström1, Sam Fredriksson1 and Lars Arneborg1,3, (1)Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Oceanography Research Dept., Norrköping, Sweden, (2)Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Norrköping, Germany, (3)University of Gothenburg, Marine Sciences, Gothenburg, Sweden
 
Winter influences on Summer Hypoxia Variability (651425)
Samantha Siedlecki, University of Connecticut, Groton, CT, United States, Parker MacCready, Univ. Washington, Olympia, WA, United States, Ryan M McCabe, University of Washington, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Seattle, WA, United States, Neil Banas, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom, Kristen A Davis, Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institute, Ft. Pierce, FL, United States, Sarah N Giddings, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States, Burke R Hales, Oregon State Univ, Corvallis, OR, United States, Jack A Barth, Oregon State University, Marine Studies Initiative, Corvallis, OR, United States and Scott Michael Durski, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States
 
Evaluation of Ocean Forecast within GloSea5 with Multivariable Integrated Evaluation Index (651451)
Jieun Wie1, Hyomee Lee2, Byung-Kwon Moon1, Hyojin Park3, Pil-Hun Chang4, Johan Lee5 and Yoonjae Kim5, (1)Chonbuk National University, Jeonju, South Korea, (2)National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Global Environment System Research Division, Seogwipo, Korea, Republic of (South), (3)Gimje Girls' High School, South Korea, (4)National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Earth System Research Division, Seogwipo, South Korea, (5)National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo, South Korea
 
Predictability of critical metabolic index in an initialized global marine biogeochemistry prediction system (651549)
Jong-Yeon Park, Chonbuk National University, South Korea, Charles A Stock, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States, John P Dunne, NOAA Geophys Fluid Dynamic, Princeton, United States, Xiaosong Yang, UCAR, Princeton, NJ, United States and Anthony John Rosati, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
 
New monthly ocean operational system (652043)
Clotilde Dubois, Météo-France/Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France, Matthieu Clavier, Mercator Ocean International, France and Giovanni Ruggiero, Mercator Ocean International, Ramonville St Agne, France
 
Estuarine forecasts at weather to subseasonal scales (653113)
Andrew Ross1, Charles A Stock2, Keith W Dixon3, Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs4, Raleigh R Hood5, Ming Li5, Kathleen Pegion6, Vincent S Saba7 and Gabriel A Vecchi1, (1)Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, (2)NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States, (3)NOAA, Princeton, NJ, United States, (4)Virginia Inst Marine Science, Gloucester Point, VA, United States, (5)University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science Horn Point Laboratory, Cambridge, MD, United States, (6)George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, VA, United States, (7)NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service, Princeton, NJ, United States
 
Exploring North Atlantic and North Pacific Decadal Climate Prediction Using Self-Organizing Maps (653303)
Qinxue Gu, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, State College, United States and Melissa Gervais, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, University Park, PA, United States
 
CMIP5 Model-analog Seasonal Forecast Skill: a Metric for Model Evaluation of ENSO (653511)
Hui Ding, University of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, United States, Matthew Newman, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, Michael A Alexander, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Science Division, Boulder, CO, United States and Andrew Thorne Wittenberg, NOAA Princeton, Princeton, NJ, United States
 
How important is the Equatorial Undercurrent for biogeochemistry and global climate predictions? (654208)
Julius Johannes Marian Busecke1, Laure Resplandy1 and John P Dunne2, (1)Princeton University, Department of Geosciences, Princeton, NJ, United States, (2)NOAA Geophys Fluid Dynamic, Princeton, United States
 
Predictability in California Current System: the role of the North Pacific forcing and the asymmetric response to La Niña vs El Niño (654909)
Tongtong Xu, Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Atlanta, GA, United States, Yingying Zhao, Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Program in Ocean Science & Engineering, Atlanta, GA, United States, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Georgia Inst Tech, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States and Kevin A Haas, Georgia Tech Savannah, Civil Environmental Engineering, Atlanta, GA, United States
 
Improving the near-term estimate of air-sea CO2 exchange by merging models and observations with machine learning (Invited) (654983)
Lucas Gloege1, Galen A McKinley2, Monica Yan3 and Tian Zheng3, (1)Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States, (2)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States, (3)Columbia University of New York, Palisades, United States
 
Super model approach to reduce model bias and enhance climate prediction (655215)
Noel S Keenlyside1, Francois Counillon2, Mao-lin Shen3, Shunya Koski3, Marion Devilliers4, Alok Kumar Gupta5 and Gregory S. Duane6, (1)Geophysical Institute Bergen, Bergen, Norway, (2)Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre, Bergen, Norway, (3)University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway, (4)Université de Bordeaux, France, (5)NORCE, Norway, (6)Univ of Colorado, Skopje, Macedonia
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