CP005
Extreme sea levels and coastal flood risk
Session ID#: 85166
Session Description:
Extreme sea levels emerge as a combination of regional mean sea level, astronomic tides, storm surges, a dynamic wave component, and, in deltas and estuaries, river discharge. Inundation of coastal areas arises from the superposition of these components and can lead to moderate (but frequent) impacts related to tidal flooding, or devastating social, economic, and environmental consequences due to rare extreme events. The 2017 and 2018 hurricane seasons in the North Atlantic were only the latest reminders of the vulnerability of low-lying densely populated and highly developed coastlines. In order to plan effective adaptation to coastal flooding hazards it is essential to improve the understanding of the links between different sea level components, and how they are modulated by climate change and variability, individually and in combination. This session seeks contributions from studies that have: (i) examined changes in any of the sea level components outlined above and their links to climate change and variability (past and future), (ii) undertaken statistical or process-based model analyses of extreme sea levels or its individual components, (iii) assessed how changes in sea level modulate coastal flood risk, (iv) or taken an integrated approach toward flood hazard and vulnerability evaluation of complex coastal systems.
Index Terms:
1641 Sea level change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
4217 Coastal processes [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
4546 Nearshore processes [OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL]
4564 Tsunamis and storm surges [OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL]
Primary Chair: Thomas Wahl, University of Central Florida, Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering & National Center for Integrated Coastal Research, Orlando, FL, United States
Co-chairs: Sönke Dangendorf, Old Dominion University, Ocean, Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, Norfolk, United States; University of Siegen, Research Institute for Water and Environment, Siegen, Germany, Katherine Serafin, University of Florida, Geography, Gainesville, FL, United States and William Sweet, NOAA/NOS, Silver Spring, MD, United States
Primary Liaison: Thomas Wahl, University of Central Florida, Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering & National Center for Integrated Coastal Research, Orlando, FL, United States
High Frequency Tide-Surge Interaction in Estuaries: Causes and Implications for Coastal Flooding (492948)
Preston Spicer1, Kimberly Huguenard1, Lauren Ross2 and Laura N Rickard1, (1)University of Maine, Orono, ME, United States, (2)University of Maine, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Orono, ME, United States
Assessing Coastal Water-Level Variability in the Salish Sea via a Spatially Extensive Network of Real-time Water-level Sensors and Hydrodynamic Modeling (638279)
Daniel J. Nowacki1, Andrew William Stevens2, Sean C Crosby2, Eric Grossman2, Nathan R VanArendonk3 and Babak Tehranirad2, (1)USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, CA, United States, (2)USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, United States, (3)Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA, United States
Effects of multiple flood drivers on urban flooding due to joint coastal and fluvial mechanisms (639176)
Agnieszka Indiana Olbert1, Joanne Comer2, Stephen Nash1 and Michael Hartnett1, (1)National University of Ireland Galway, College of Science and Engineering, Ryan Institute, Galway, Ireland, (2)Office of Public Works, Galway, Ireland
Contribution of Wave Setup and Swash to Projected Coastal Sea Level Changes (639195)
Angelique Melet, Mercator Ocean International, Scientific Directorate, Ramonville-Saint-Agne, United States, Rafael Almar, LEGOS, CNES, Toulouse, France, Mark A Hemer, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric, Hobart, TAS, Australia, Goneri Le Cozannet, BRGM, Orléans, France, Benoit Meyssignac, Observatory Midi-Pyrenees, Toulouse, France and Peter Ruggiero, Oregon State University, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Corvallis, OR, United States
On the key influence of remote climate variability from Tropical Cyclones, North and South Atlantic mid-latitude storms on the coast of West Africa (641587)
Julien Boucharel, LEGOS-CNRS, Toulouse, France, Rafael Almar, LEGOS, CNES, Toulouse, France and Elodie Kestenare, Laboratoire d’Etudes Géophysiques et d’Océanographie Spatiale, LEGOS – UMR 5566 CNES-CNRS-IRD-UPS, Toulouse, France
Addressing Needs in Observed and Simulated Storm Surge Data for Uncertainty Quantification (641728)
Taylor Asher, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, United States, Rick Luettich, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Institute of Marine Sciences, Morehead City, NC, United States, Jennifer L Irish, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, United States, Pulong Ma, Statistical and Applied Mathematical Sciences Institute, Research Triangle Park, NC, United States, Michelle Bensi, University of Maryland College Park, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College Park, MD, United States and Donald Resio, University of North Florida, Jacksonville, FL, United States
Interannual Variability of Winter Sea Level Induced by Local Atmospheric Forcing in the NorthEast Asian Marginal Seas (NEAMS): 1993-2017 (642321)
MyeongHee Max Han1, SungHyun Nam1, Yang-Ki Cho1, Hyoun-Woo Kang2, Kwang Young Jeong3 and Eunil Lee4, (1)Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul, South Korea, (2)KIOST, Ocean Circulation and Climate Research, Ansan, South Korea, (3)Korea Hydrographic and Oceaographic Agency, Research Div., Busan, South Korea, (4)Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency, Busan, South Korea
Tidal Variability Associated with Sea Level Variability: Global and Regional Surveys (642751)
Adam Thomas Devlin, Jiangxi Normal University, School of Geography and Environment, Nanchang, China; The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China and Jiayi Pan, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; Jiangxi Normal University, College of Geography and Environment, Nanchang, China
Data-driven Modeling of Global Storm Surges (643247)
Michael Tadesse1, Thomas Wahl1 and Md Mamunur Rashid2, (1)University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, United States, (2)University of Central Florida, Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering & National Center for Integrated Coastal Research, Orlando, FL, United States
Modeling return periods of strong storms for Resilient Connecticut (643563)
Chang Liu1, Yan Jia1, Yaprak Onat1, Amin Ilia2, Alejandro Cifuentes-Lorenzen2, Todd Fake2 and James O'Donnell3, (1)University of Connecticut, Connecticut Institute for Resilience & Climate Adaptation (CIRCA), Groton, CT, United States, (2)University of Connecticut, Marine Sciences, Groton, CT, United States, (3)University of Connecticut, Connecticut Institute for Resilience and Climate Adaptation, Groton, CT, United States
Modeling swell and locally generated waves in a semi-protected estuary with strong currents (643747)
Sean C Crosby1, Eric Grossman1, Andrew William Stevens1, Nathan R VanArendonk2 and Babak Tehranirad1, (1)USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, United States, (2)Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA, United States
Storm Surge Modeling in the Southern of Java using Coupled 4D-VAR Circulation-Waves Model : EnsembleKF and Multi-Verification Approach (643871)
Ejha Larasati Siadari, Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics, Center for Marine Meteorology, Jakarta, Indonesia, Nelly Florida, Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics, Center for Research and Development, Jakarta, Indonesia and Khafid Rizki Pratama, Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics BMKG, Meteorology, Jakarta, Indonesia
Coral reef degradation would significantly rise U.S. coastal flooding hazards (644322)
Borja Reguero1, Curt Daron Storlazzi2, Michael w Beck3, Aaron D Cole4, James Brandon Shope3, Ann Gibbs5 and Kristen A Cumming6, (1)United States, (2)USGS Pacific Science Ctr, Santa Cruz, CA, United States, (3)University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, United States, (4)University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, United States, (5)Univ of Alaska Fairbanks GINA, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (6)USGS Geological Survey, Santa Cruz, United States
Coastal flood risk and adaptation strategies under deep uncertainty – a modelling framework (645779)
Leigh MacPherson1, Jan Merkens2, Thomas van der Pol3, Sönke Dangendorf4, Athanasios Vafeidis2 and Jochen Hinkel3, (1)University of Siegen, Siegen, Germany, (2)University of Kiel, Kiel, Germany, (3)Global Climate Forum, Berlin, Germany, (4)Old Dominion University, Ocean, Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, Norfolk, United States
Predicting storm wave runup at Imperial Beach, California (647108)
Julia W Fiedler1, Adam Young2, William C O'Reilly2, Bonnie C Ludka1, Cassandra Henderson2, Robert T Guza1 and Mark Merrifield1, (1)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, (2)University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States
Influence of Mangrove Trees on the Storm Surge Simulation Induced by Tropical Cyclone (647617)
Yuepeng Li, Florida International University, IHRC, Miami, FL, United States, Qiang Chen Dr, Florida International University, IHRC, Miami, United States, David Kelly, Florida International University, Miami, FL, United States and Keqi Zhang, Florida International Univ, Miami, FL, United States
Modeling Extreme Water Levels in Puget Sound (648116)
Babak Tehranirad1, Andrew William Stevens1, Eric Grossman1, Daniel J. Nowacki1, Sean C Crosby1 and Li H Erikson2, (1)USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, United States, (2)USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, CA, United States
Statistics of High-Water Events Controlling the After-Storm Recovery of Coastal Dunes (648372)
Tobia Rinaldo1, Kiran Adhithya Ramakrishnan1, Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe2 and Orencio Duran Vinent3, (1)Texas A&M University College Station, Ocean Engineering, College Station, TX, United States, (2)Texas A&M University, Ocean Engineering, College Station, TX, United States, (3)Texas A&M University, Ocean Engineering, College Station, United States
An integrated operational forecast system for coastal, fluvial, and pluvial flooding in the San Francisco Bay area (651757)
Liv Herdman1, Babak Tehranirad1, Cornelis Nederhoff III2, Li H Erikson3, Greg Pratt4, Michael Leon5 and Patrick Barnard3, (1)USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, United States, (2)Deltares, Delft, Netherlands, (3)USGS, Santa Cruz, CA, United States, (4)NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Global Systems Division, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, CO, United States
Probabilistic projections of high-tide flooding frequency in the United States during the 21st century (652027)
Philip R Thompson, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Oceanography, Honolulu, HI, United States, Benjamin Hamlington, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, Mark Merrifield, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States and William Sweet, NOAA/NOS, Silver Spring, MD, United States
On the Use of Directional Wave Spectra to Identify Distant Swells Approaching a Pacific Atoll (652394)
Laura Cagigal Gil1, Ana Rueda2, Alba Ricondo2, Giovanni Coco1 and Fernando Javier Méndez Incera2, (1)University of Auckland, School of Environment, Auckland, New Zealand, (2)University of Cantabria, Ciencias y Tecnicas del Agua y del Medio Ambiente, Santander, Spain
Modelling flooding in a coastal estuary from combined storm surge and rainfall during hurricanes (652847)
Ryan P Mulligan1, Alexander Rey1 and D. Reide Corbett2, (1)Queen's University, Civil Engineering, Kingston, ON, Canada, (2)UNC Coastal Studies Institute, Department of Geological Sciences, Wanchese, NC, United States
Field and numerical assessment of meteotsunamis associated with tropical cyclone rainbands in the Gulf of Mexico (652968)
Katherine Anarde, Texas A&M University, Ocean Engineering, College Station, TX, United States, Wei Cheng, Texas A&M University, Ocean Engineering, Galveston, TX, United States, Marion Tissier, Delft University of Technology, Environmental Fluid Mechanics, Delft, Netherlands, Jens Figlus, Texas A&M University, Department of Ocean Engineering, College Station, TX, United States and Juan J Horrillo, Texas A & M University at Galveston, Galveston, TX, United States
Coupling of statistical and numerical modelling approaches to multi-scale storm surge dynamics at coastal zones: case of the English Channel (653090)
Imen Turki Sr1, Derya I Dilmen2, Stéphane Costa3, Benoit Laignel4 and Olivier Maquaire Sr.3, (1)University of Rouen, Mont-Saint-Aignan, France, (2)University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States, (3)Université de Caen Normandie, LETG - UMR 6554, Caen, France, (4)University of Rouen, Mont-Saint-Aignan Cedex, France
Simulating the impact of sea level rise on storm surge; a case study in the northeast of the US. (653319)
Soroush Kouhi, University of Rhode Island, Department of Ocean Engineering, Narragansett, RI, United States and M Reza Hashemi, University of Rhode Island, Department of Ocean Engineering and Graduate School of Oceanography, Narragansett, RI, United States
Historical storm surges in the German Bight (653398)
Elke Meyer1, Ralf Weisse1, Birger Tinz2 and Thomas Möller2, (1)Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, Institute of Coastal Research, Geesthacht, Germany, (2)Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Hamburg, Germany
Meteotsunamis triggered by Hurricane Harvey (2017) (653868)
Luming Shi, United States; University of Florida, Civil and Coastal Engineering, Gainesville, FL, United States and Maitane Olabarrieta, University of Florida, Ft Walton Beach, FL, United States
Tidally-driven interannual variation in extreme sea level probabilities in the Gulf of Maine (654193)
Hannah Elizabeth Baranes1, Jonathan D Woodruff1, Stefan A Talke2, Robert E Kopp3, Richard Ray4 and Robert M Deconto1, (1)University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Geosciences, Amherst, MA, United States, (2)California State Polytechnic University, San Luis Obispo, Civil and Environmental Engineering, San Luis Obispo, CA, United States, (3)Rutgers University New Brunswick, Institute of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, (4)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Geodesy & Geophysics Lab, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Understanding and Predicting the Response of a Barrier Beach to Extreme Storms; A Case Study on the South Shore of Rhode Island (654295)
M Reza Hashemi, University of Rhode Island, Department of Ocean Engineering and Graduate School of Oceanography, Narragansett, RI, United States, Janelle Skaden, University of Rhode Island, Department of Ocean Engineering, United States, Boma Kresning, University of Rhode Island Narragansett Bay, Department of Ocean Engineering, Narragansett, CA, United States, Annette R Grilli, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI, United States, Chris Baxter, University of Rhode Island, Ocean and Civil Engineering, Narragansett, United States, Bryan Oakley, Eastern Connecticut State University, United States and Malcolm L Spaulding, Univ Rhode Island, Wakefield, RI, United States
Laboratory Experiments of Tsunami Force Coefficient in Korea (654414)
Yong-Sik Cho, Professor, Hanyang University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South) and Sang-Cheol Lee, Director, PhD, Global R&D Center, SQ Engineering, Seoul, South Korea
The influence of human induced landscape and bathymetry changes on tides, surge and extreme water levels (655083)
Stefan A Talke1, Ramin Familkhalili2, Lumas T Helaire3, David A Jay2, Philip M Orton4 and David K Ralston5, (1)California State Polytechnic University, San Luis Obispo, Civil and Environmental Engineering, San Luis Obispo, CA, United States, (2)Portland State University, Portland, OR, United States, (3)Portland State University, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Portland, OR, United States, (4)Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ, United States, (5)WHOI, Applied Ocean Physics & Engineering, Woods Hole, MA, United States
Runup amplification of full-stroke and dam-break waves on a sloping beach in shadow zone by an offshore island (655979)
Sunghoon Han1, James Michael Kaihatu2, Patrick J Lynett3 and Costas Synolakis3, (1)Texas A&M University College Station, College Station, TX, United States, (2)Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, United States, (3)University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States
Assessing the Skill of Storm Surge Modeling Systems in Operational Forecast, Hindcast, Reanalysis, and Retrospective Applications (656864)
Sergey V Vinogradov1, Edward Payson Myers III2, Yuji Funakoshi3, Saeed Moghimi1 and Jaime Calzada4, (1)NOAA National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, United States, (2)NOAA, NOS/OCS, Silver Spring, MD, United States, (3)University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, MD, United States, (4)NOAA National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, United States
Historic and Geologic Sea Level Change in Winyah Bay, SC (656939)
Madison Fink, United States, Till Jens Joerg Hanebuth, Geological Survey of Canada, Sidney, BC, Canada, Stefan A Talke, California State Polytechnic University, San Luis Obispo, Civil and Environmental Engineering, San Luis Obispo, CA, United States and Andrea Hawkes, UNC Wilmington, Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Wilminton, NC, United States
U.S. East-Coast Shoreline Wave Climate during Intense Hurricane Forcing: Landfall Case Studies from 2016-2019 (656979)
Eric Terrill1, James Behrens1, Sophia Merrifield1, Corey Olfe2, Randy Bucciarelli3, Allison Ho1, Mark A Merrifield1, Ty Hesser4 and Robert E Jensen5, (1)University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, (2)University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, United States, (3)University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, United States, (4)U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, Vicksburg, MS, United States, (5)US Army Corps of Engineers, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, Vicksburg, MS, United States
Estimating the U.S. Economic Impact of Changes to Storm Tide from Sea Level Rise and Climate-Driven Shifts in Hurricane Patterns (657618)
Ian Wesley Bolliger1, Michael Delgado2, Michael Greenstone3, Ali Hamidi2, Trevor Houser2, Solomon M Hsiang4 and Robert E Kopp5, (1)University of California Berkeley, Energy and Resources Group, Berkeley, CA, United States, (2)Rhodium Group, Oakland, CA, United States, (3)University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States, (4)University of California Berkeley, Goldman School of Public Policy, Berkeley, CA, United States, (5)Rutgers University New Brunswick, Institute of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ, United States
