PC003
Ecosystem forecasts and projections

Session ID#: 85833

Session Description:
Big changes are happening in the ocean. However, global trends in ocean heat content, physics, and biogeochemistry may not accurately represent changes in coastal regions where modulation by local processes plays a crucial role. Coastal oceans support productive, economically important ecosystems that are essential to dependent coastal communities. Therefore, it is vital that we consider the extent to which local processes modulate global trends in order to effectively anticipate climate change manifestation in coastal systems. Ocean simulations that resolve coastal processes can provide mechanistic insights into dynamics that drive local variability in ecosystem-relevant parameters such as temperature, oxygen content and carbonate chemistry. This session welcomes studies focused on ocean projections and forecasts for coastal ecosystems and ecosystem-relevant conditions on decadal to climate timeframes. We invite presentations on development and/or analysis of these projections, as well as studies utilizing downscaled ocean products to advance our understanding of projected or paleobiological changes to marine communities or ecosystems, and/or that discuss how such projections can be used to assist marine resource/conservation management decisions at regional, national, or international scales.
Index Terms:

1615 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1627 Coupled models of the climate system [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
4263 Ocean predictability and prediction [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
6309 Decision making under uncertainty [POLICY SCIENCES & PUBLIC ISSUES]

Primary Chair:  Samantha A Siedlecki, University of Connecticut, Groton, CT, United States
Co-chairs:  Elizabeth Drenkard, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton, Princeton, NJ, United States, Peter Kalmus, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States and Enrique Curchitser, Rutgers University, Department of Environmental Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ, United States
Primary Liaison:  Samantha A Siedlecki, University of Connecticut, Groton, CT, United States
 
CO2 and Temperature Effects on the Early Life-Stages of an Important Northwest Atlantic Forage Fish, Atlantic Silverside (Menidia menidia) (636230)
Grace OMalley, Allegheny College, Department of Biology, Meadville, PA, United States and Robert Christopher Chambers, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, Highlands, NJ, United States
 
Projecting extremes in California Current acidification (637663)
Gabriela Cazares, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Chemistry, Cambridge, MA, United States, Nicole S Lovenduski, University of Colorado, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, Riley Xavier Brady, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States and Eleanor Middlemas, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Predicting Regions of North Atlantic Right Whale, Eubaleana Glacialis, Habitat Suitability in the Gulf of Maine (643908)
Camille Ross, Colby College, Waterville, ME, United States, Nicholas Record, University of Maine, Portland, ME, United States, Daniel Pendleton, Anderson Cabot Center for Ocean Life at the New England Aquarium, Boston, MA, United States and Benjamin Tupper, Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, East Boothbay, ME, United States
 
Recent satellite-measured SST trends and 21stcentury climate model SST projections in North American east coast Large Marine Ecosystems (645697)
Andrew Thomas, University of Maine, Orono, ME, United States, Quinn Carey, University of Maine, School of Marine Sciences, Orono, ME, United States, Michael A Alexander, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Science Division, Boulder, CO, United States and Nicholas Record, Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, East Boothbay, ME, United States
 
The PNW HAB Bulletin Project: Optimizing the role of modeling in a sustained-service harmful algal bloom early warning system in the Pacific Northwest (646616)
Hally B Stone, University of Washington, Oceanography, Seattle, WA, United States, Neil Banas, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom, Parker MacCready, Univ. Washington, Olympia, WA, United States, Vera L Trainer, NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Marine Biotoxins Program, Seattle, WA, United States, Ryan M McCabe, University of Washington, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Seattle, WA, United States, Barbara M Hickey, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, WA, United States, Dan L Ayres, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, United States and Matthew Hunter, Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, United States
 
Outlook on Changes in Bering Sea Oxygen Cycling (646672)
Samuel Mogen, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, United States; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, United States, Darren Pilcher, University of Washington, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Seattle, WA, United States; Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States and Jessica N Cross, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States
 
Statistical Analysis of Local Oceanographic Variability Relative to Abalone Habitats at Isla Natividad (647111)
Hyunah Lee1, Yushan Sun1, Christian Reilly1, Lisa Marrack1, Fiorenza Micheli2 and Giulio De Leo3, (1)Santa Catalina School, Marine Ecology Research Program, Monterey, CA, United States, (2)Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States, (3)Stanford University, Hopkins Marine Station, Pacific Grove, CA, United States
 
Analysis of Sea-Run and Freshwater Fish Abundance Trends in the Penobscot River 2000-2018. (648636)
Justin Chandler-Holtz, United States
 
Importance of simulating coastal biogeochemical processes for projections of ocean acidification on the Bering Sea shelf (648645)
Darren Pilcher1, Jessica N Cross2, Albert J Hermann1, Samuel Mogen3, Kelly Kearney1 and Wei Cheng4, (1)University of Washington, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Seattle, WA, United States, (2)NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States, (3)University of Virginia, Charlottesville, United States, (4)University of Washington, JISAO, Seattle, WA, United States
 
Climate change effects on shelf sea’s connectivity and oceanographic provinces (650260)
Claudia Gabriela Mayorga Adame1, James Harle2, Jason T Holt3, Yuri Artioli4 and Sarah Wakelin3, (1)National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, United Kingdom, (2)National Oceanography Centre, UK, Liverpool, United Kingdom, (3)National Oceanography Center, Liverpool, United Kingdom, (4)Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, United Kingdom
 
Managing Uncertainty: Strategic Downscaling of Climate Change Impacts on CCS Oceanography and Fisheries (651111)
Elizabeth Drenkard, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton, Princeton, NJ, United States, Charles A Stock, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States, Arthur J Miller, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States, Sam Mcclatchie, NOAA Fisheries, SWFSC, La Jolla, CA, United States and Enrique N Curchitser, Rutgers University New Brunswick, Department of Environmental Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ, United States
 
It’s Not Just About Sea Surface Temperature: Synthesizing Information to Communicate Climate Change Projections for European Seas (651504)
Susan Kay, Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, PL1, United Kingdom
 
Assessing the Reliability of Species Distribution Model Projections in the Face of Climate and Ecosystem Regime Shifts: Small Pelagic Fishes in the California Current Ecosystem (652799)
Rebecca G Asch, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC, United States, Keo Chan, Princeton University, NJ, United States and Joanna Sobolewska, Princeton Unversity, NJ, United States
 
Dynamically downscaled climate projections for the California Current Upwelling System (652872)
Mercedes Pozo Buil, University of California Santa Cruz, Institute of Marine Sciences, Santa Cruz, GA, United States, Michael Jacox, University of California-Santa Cruz, San Francisco, CA, United States, Jerome Fiechter, University of California Santa Cruz, Ocean Sciences, Santa Cruz, CA, United States and Michael A Alexander, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Science Division, Boulder, CO, United States
 
The Importance of Environmental Exposure History in Forecasting Dungeness Crab Megalopae Occurrence Using J-SCOPE, a High-Resolution Model for the US Pacific Northwest (652880)
Emily L Norton1, Samantha Siedlecki2, Isaac Kaplan3, Albert J Hermann1, Jennifer L. Fisher4, Cheryl Morgan5, Suzanna Officer6, Casey Saenger1, Simone R Alin7, Jan A Newton8, Nina Bednarsek9 and Richard A Feely7,10, (1)University of Washington, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Seattle, WA, United States, (2)University of Connecticut, Groton, CT, United States, (3)NOAA NWFSC, Seattle, WA, United States, (4)Oregon State University, Cooperative Institute of Marine Resources Studies, Newport, OR, United States, (5)Vancouver, BC, Canada, (6)Whitman College, Walla Walla, WA, United States, (7)NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States, (8)University of Washington, Applied Physics Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States, (9)Southern California Coastal Water Research Project, Costa Mesa, CA, United States, (10)NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Ocean Climate Research Division, Seattle, WA, United States
 
Effects of Sea Level Rise on the Seasonal Hypoxia of Chesapeake Bay (653394)
Pierre St-Laurent1, Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs1, Ming Li2 and Wenfei Ni3, (1)Virginia Institute of Marine Science, Gloucester Point, VA, United States, (2)Univ of Maryland Ctr for Env., Cambridge, MD, United States, (3)University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Cambridge, MD, United States
 
A Decision Support System to Monitor Hypoxic Blooms of Noctiluca in the Coastal Waters of Oman (653818)
Dale Adolph Kiefer, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States, Zachary C. Siegrist, System Science Applications, United States, Sergio deRada, Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States, Fei Chai, Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Hangzhou, China, Joaquim I Goes, Lamont Doherty Earth Obs, Palisades, NY, United States and Lubna Al-Kharusi, Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries Wealth, Oman
 
Environmental drivers of the presence and persistence of sand lance hotspots on the Northeast US Shelf (654775)
Justin Joseph Suca1, David Wiley2, Tammy L. Silva3, Anna R. Robuck4, David Richardson5, Sarah G Glancy6, Teresa Giandonato7, Michael A. Thompson3, Peter Hong3, Hannes Baumann8, Les Kaufman9 and Joel Llopiz6, (1)Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Biology Department, Woods Hole, MA, United States, (2)Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary, United States, (3)Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary, Scituate, MA, United States, (4)University of Rhode Island Narragansett Bay, Narragansett, RI, United States, (5)NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Narragansett, RI, United States, (6)Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States, (7)Colorado Mesa University, Grand Junction, CO, United States, (8)University of Connecticut, Marine Sciences, Groton, CT, United States, (9)Conservation International, Arlington, VA, United States
 
Using joint species distribution models to assess changing predator-prey co-occurrence patterns within a rapidly warming marine ecosystem (655268)
Andrew Allyn, Katherine Mills and Lisa A Kerr, Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME, United States
 
Development of a Maryland Coastal Bays Ecosystem Model to Assess the Influence of Climatic Factors on Biomass Distributions of Fish and Macroinvertebrates, Food Web Linkages and Community Structure (655710)
Kasondra Rubalcava, University of Maryland Eastern Shore, Princess Anne, MD, United States, Howard Townsend, NOAA Fisheries, Oxford, MD, United States and Paulinus Chigbu, University of Maryland Eastern Shore, Natural Sciences, Princess Anne, MD, United States
 
Expanding the biophysical ensemble: hybrid dynamical-statistical downscaling methods based on spatial/temporal scale (655883)
Albert J Hermann, University of Washington, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Seattle, WA, United States
 
Identifying coral refugia from observationally weighted climate model ensembles (656950)
Peter Kalmus1, Emily Lei Kang2, Amy J Braverman1 and Michelle M Gierach3, (1)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, (2)University of Cincinnati Main Campus, Cincinnati, OH, United States, (3)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States
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