DO012
Regionally Downscaled Ocean Climate Predictions and Projections

Session ID#: 254304

Session Description:
Understanding future ocean conditions at regional scales is critical for climate adaptation and informed policy-making. While global climate models provide ocean state projections (IPCC-CMIP6) and seasonal to decadal predictions (Copernicus-C3S), they lack the spatial resolution and explicit representation of local processes required by coastal and marine stakeholders. Operational ocean forecasting models offer high resolution at regional scales, but only for short time horizons. Regionally downscaled future ocean predictions/projections bridge this gap by capturing fine-scale processes, local topographic influences, and regional feedbacks that shape ocean variability and long-term change. Projecting the ocean changing conditions on regional scales is increasingly important in the context of upcoming assessment reports (IPCC-AR7), World Climate Research Programmes (CLIVAR-CORDEX), and UN Ocean Decade actions (CoastPredict/FLAME).

This session invites submissions that explore advances in regional downscaling for seasonal/decadal predictions and long-term climate projections. We welcome studies on:

  • Development and evaluation of downscaled ocean and coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean climate models, including representation of physics, biogeochemistry, sea-ice, and the ocean-land interface.
  • Added value of regional downscaling in representing key processes and in projecting climate-change-induced extremes, variability, and ecosystem response.
  • Integrating fit-for-purpose downscaled ocean climate predictions/projections into decision-making frameworks and ocean climate services.
  • Incorporating machine learning to enhance downscaling accuracy and efficiency.
Index Terms:

1637 Regional climate change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
4219 Continental shelf and slope processes [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
4255 Numerical modeling [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
4815 Ecosystems, structure, dynamics, and modeling [OCEANOGRAPHY: BIOLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL]
Student/Early Career Chair:  Leonie Barghorn, Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemuende, Rostock, Germany
Primary Chair:  Anna Katavouta, National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, United Kingdom
Co-chairs:  Konstantinos Christakos, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Bergen, Norway, Jun She, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark and Leonie Barghorn, Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemuende, Rostock, Germany
 
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Dr. Yuri Artioli, PhD1, Michael Wathen1, Molly James1 and Murray Roberts2,3, (1)Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, United Kingdom, (2)University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom, (3)Mara Consultants Ltd., Edinburgh, United Kingdom
 
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