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Session Proposal: Addressing and Understanding Uncertainties in CMIP: Key Insights and Future Directions (AGU25)

GC001
Addressing and Understanding Uncertainties in CMIP: Key Insights and Future Directions

Session ID#: 251301

Session Description:
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is instrumental in advancing our understanding of the Earth’s climate system and its future projections. However, Earth system models (ESM) exhibit disparities in critical aspects, particularly in their responses to anthropogenic forcings and the intricate coupling of physical and biogeochemical systems. Given that the Earth system science community, and notably the IPCC, relies on CMIP outputs to inform policy and mitigation strategies, it becomes imperative to address these inherent uncertainties through a multidisciplinary approach that unites atmospheric, oceanic, cryospheric and terrestrial modeling. In this session, we invite studies that investigate uncertainties and model disagreements across all facets associated with CMIP projections. These may include contributions, but are not limited to:1. Identification of processes and key entities with significant disparities across CMIP models2. Critical scientific priorities for future Earth system model development3.Opportunities, challenges, and constraints in using CMIP output for impact research
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • B - Biogeosciences
  • H - Hydrology
  • OS - Ocean Sciences
Index Terms:

1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1990 Uncertainty [INFORMATICS]
3305 Climate change and variability [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3337 Global climate models [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
Primary Convener:  Yuhan Rao, North Carolina State University, Cooperative Institute for Satellite and Earth System Studies, Asheville, United States
Conveners:  Lina Teckentrup, Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia, Wandi Yu, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, United States and Camilla Mathison, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
Student/Early Career Convener:  Indrani Roy, UCL Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, London, United Kingdom
 
An evolving Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7) and Fast Track in support of future climate assessment (Invited) (1859325)
John P Dunne1, Helene Hewitt2, Julie Arblaster3, Frederic KPEDONOU Bonou4, Olivier Boucher5, Tereza Cavazos6, Elisabeth Dingley7, Paul James Durack8, Birgit Hassler9, Martin Juckes10, Tomoki Miyakawa11, Matthew Mizielinski2, Dr. Vaishali Naik, Ph.D.12, Zebedee Nicholls13, Eleanor O'Rourke14, Robert Pincus15, Benjamin M Sanderson16, Isla Simpson17 and Karl E. Taylor18, (1)NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, (2)Met Office Hadley center for Climate Change, Exeter, United Kingdom, (3)Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia, (4)UNSTIM/IRHOB, Benin, Benin, (5)Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Paris, France, (6)CICESE, Physical Oceanography, Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico, (7)CMIP International Project Office, Harwell, United Kingdom, (8)Lawrence Livermore Nat. Lab., Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Livermore, United States, (9)German Aerospace Center DLR Oberpfaffenhofen, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany, (10)Science and Technology Facilities Council, Swindon, United Kingdom, (11)JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan, (12)NOAA/ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, (13)University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia, (14)European Centre for Space Applications and Telecommunications, WCRP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) International Project Office, Didcot, United Kingdom, (15)Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, New York, United States, (16)Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, Oslo, Norway, (17)National Center for Atmospheric Research, CGD Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (18)Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), Livermore, CA, United States
 
Observation-Constrained CMIP6 Fire Projections for the 21st-Century United States (1875371)
Xiaoman Lu, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Earth System Modeling Group, Oak Ridge, United States and Jiafu Mao, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge, United States
 
Confronting Earth System Model trends with observations (Invited) (1888063)
Isla Simpson1, Tiffany Shaw2, Paulo Ceppi3, Amy C Clement4, Erich M Fischer5, Kevin M Grise6, Angeline G Pendergrass7, James Screen8, Robert Jnglin Wills9, Tim Woollings10, Russell Blackport8, Joonsuk Kang11 and Stephen Po-Chedley12, (1)National Center for Atmospheric Research, CGD Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (2)The University of Chicago, Chicago, United States, (3)Grantham Institute, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom, (4)Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, University of Miami, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Miami, United States, (5)ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich, Switzerland, (6)University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, United States, (7)Cornell University, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY, United States, (8)University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom, (9)ETH Zürich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zürich, Switzerland, (10)University of Oxford, Department of Physics, Oxford, United Kingdom, (11)The University of Chicago, Department of the Geophysical Sciences, Chicago, United States, (12)Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Livermore, CA, United States
 
Internal variability, observational uncertainty substantially contribute to uncertainty in global projections of heat-related mortality in a 2-degree world: Insights from bias-corrected Large Ensembles (1898894)
Kevin Schwarzwald1,2, Nathan J L Lenssen3,4, Radley M Horton1,2, Alia Bonnano5 and Gernot Wagner5, (1)Columbia University, Climate School, New York, United States, (2)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, United States, (3)Colorado School of Mines, Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Golden, CO, United States, (4)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, United States, (5)Columbia Business School, New York, United States
 
Tropical Pacific warming constrains future Mediterranean summer drying (1921561)
Linqiang He, Michela Biasutti and Yochanan Kushnir, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
 
ClimateBench2.0: Probabilistic Climate Model Scoring (1922122)
Duncan Watson-Parris1, Christopher Stephen Bretherton2, Peter Martin Caldwell3, Will Chapman4, William Drew Collins5, Gregory Elsaesser6, Veronika Eyring7, Pierre Gentine8, Stephan Hoyer9, Ralph F Keeling10, Nikolay Koldunov11, David M Lawrence12, Christian Lessig13, J David Neelin14, Mike S Pritchard15, Sarah G Purkey16, Gavin A Schmidt17, Tapio Schneider18, Michael Schulz19, Isla Simpson20, Graeme L Stephens21, Joao Teixeira22, Willa Tobin23, Andrew Williams24, Laure Zanna25 and Rose Yu1, (1)University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States, (2)Allen Institute for AI, Seattle, United States, (3)Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, United States, (4)NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)Berkeley Lab and UC Berkeley, Berkeley, United States, (6)Columbia University/NASA GISS, New York, United States, (7)German Aerospace Center DLR Oberpfaffenhofen, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany, (8)Columbia University, Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, New York, United States, (9)Google, Mountain View, United States, (10)Univ California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States, (11)MARUM‐Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, Bremen, Germany, Bremen, Germany, (12)NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (13)Otto-von-Guericke Universität, Magdeburg, Germany, (14)University of California, Los Angeles, Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, United States, (15)University California Irvine, Earth System Science, Irvine, United States, (16)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, San Diego, United States, (17)NASA/GISS, New York, United States, (18)California Institute of Technology, Environmental Science and Engineering, Pasadena, United States, (19)Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Climate and Air Pollution Section, Oslo, Norway, (20)National Center for Atmospheric Research, CGD Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (21)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, United States, (22)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States, (23)UC San Diego, La Jolla, United States, (24)University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, (25)University of Oxford, Dept of Physics, Oxford, United Kingdom
 
Sources of the Geographically Resolved Nonlinear Response to Interactions Between Heterogeneous Climate Forcings in CESM2 (1927367)
Veronika Redensek and Geeta Persad, University of Texas at Austin, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Austin, United States
 
Relationship changes in ENSO and PDO due to global warming in CMIPs (1945647)
MinHo Kwon, Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology, Ocean climate prediction center, Busan, South Korea and Eui-Hyun Jeong, KIOST Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, Ocean circulation and climate research department, Busan, South Korea
 
Evaluating CMIP6 Precipitation Extremes over the United States with a Regional Focus on Texas (1957071)
Seyed Mostafa Banihashem, Asim Paudel, Dongfeng Li and Nick Fang, University of Texas at Arlington, Civil Engineering, Arlington, United States
 
A Global High-Resolution Ensemble of Wave Projections Forced by CMIP6 Models (1969459)
Salvatore Causio1,2, Vitalii Sharmar3, Lorenzo Mentaschi4,5, Ivan Federico2, Michalis Ioannis Vousdoukas6,7 and Luc Feyen8, (1)Organization Not Listed, Washington, DC, United States, (2)CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, GOCO Division, Lecce, Italy, (3)CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change, GOCO Division, Lecce, Italy, (4)University of Bologna, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Bologna, Italy, (5)CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Bologna, Italy, (6)University of the Aegean, Mytilene, Greece, (7)European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra Vey, Italy, (8)European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
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