Sensitivity and Uncertainty Characterization in Multi-Scale Modeling of Drought-to-Flood Transitions: Integrating 1D–2D Hydrodynamic, AI/ML, and Index-Based Modeling Frameworks

Session ID#: 282199

Session Description:
Rapid drought-to-flood transitions are critical indicators of hydroclimatic variability in a changing climate. Such events present challenges for prediction, risk assessment, and water resource management. Therefore, it is essential to understand the mechanisms governing event propagation to improve system resilience and forecasting capabilities.

This session invites research on the drivers and predictors of such transitional events using sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. We welcome diverse modeling approaches ranging from physics-based and data-driven to hybrid (AI/ML) models, from global to regional scales. Contributions may utilize hydrodynamic simulations or statistical indices such as SPI, SPEI, and SRI.

We encourage the use of global operational datasets (e.g., GLOFAS, GFS) and in situ observations to enhance process understanding. Submissions should focus on informing sustainable adaptation strategies and building a more resilient, sustainable society. Ultimately, this session aims to foster interdisciplinary dialogue and advance robust methodologies for predicting compound hydrometeorological extremes under evolving climate conditions.

Co-Sponsor(s):
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • GC - Global Environmental Change
  • NH - Natural Hazards
  • SY - Science and Society
Index Terms:

1833 Hydroclimatology [HYDROLOGY]
1873 Uncertainty assessment [HYDROLOGY]
4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4329 Sustainable development [NATURAL HAZARDS]
Primary Convener:  Subhankar Karmakar, Mumbai, India
Conveners:  Kaustav Mondal, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Green Energy and Sustainability Hub, Mumbai, India, Jagriti Jain, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Centre for Climate Studies, Mumbai, India and Ajay Gupta, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Environmental Science and Engineering Department, Mumbai, India
See more of: Hydrology