GC009
Atmospheric Teleconnections From The Equatorial Pacific: 50 Years Of Progress On The Role Of Tropical Oceans In Climate And Its Predictability.
Session ID#: 74400
Session Description:
In his 1969 seminal paper, Jacob Bjerknes concluded that the demonstrated impact of equatorial Pacific SST anomalies on atmospheric circulations “justifies a cautious use of such experience in long-range forecasting”. Fifty years later, there has been great progress in understanding, modeling, and predicting ENSO and its impacts on the climate system. Bjerknes’ initial call for using information from the equatorial Pacific for long-range forecasting is now routinely answered in both basic research and operational practice. Advancements in theory, computational power, and data analysis techniques are enabling a broader and more comprehensive use of tropical ocean data for climate forecasting. This session invites studies on the role of the tropical oceans in seasonal-to-decadal global climate predictability, including dynamics, modeling, and predictability of El Niño and other modes of tropical variability, extra-tropical and inter-tropical basin teleconnections, and past and future changes in tropical climate and its leading modes of variability.
Index Terms:
1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1620 Climate dynamics [GLOBAL CHANGE]
3339 Ocean/atmosphere interactions [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4522 ENSO [OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL]
Primary Convener: Christina Karamperidou, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States
Conveners: Malte F Stuecker, IBS Center for Climate Physics, Pusan, South Korea, Fei-Fei Jin, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States and Shineng Hu, Yale University, Geology and Geophysics, New Haven, CT, United States
Primary Liaison: Christina Karamperidou, Univ Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, United States
A Theory for Seasonal Predictability Barrier：Threshold, Timing and Intensity (490738)
Zhengyu Liu, Ohio State University Main Campus, Columbus, OH, United States, Yishuai Jin, Peking University, Beijing, China and Xinyao Rong, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China, Beijing, China
Enhancing the ENSO Predictability beyond the Spring Barrier (496998)
Yu-heng Tseng, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, Han-Ching Chen, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Atmospheric Sciences, Honolulu, HI, United States, Zeng-Zhen Hu, Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD, United States and RuiQiang Ding, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing, China
Experimental Gridded Tree-Ring Reconstruction of Indo-Pacific Winter Sea Surface Temperatures (497331)
Mark A Cane, Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States, Edward R Cook, Columbia University of New York, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States and Jason E Smerdon, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States
Predictability of El Niño Duration Based on the Onset Timing (510777)
Xian Wu1, Yuko Okumura2 and Pedro N DiNezio1, (1)University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States, (2)University of Texas at Austin, Institute for Geophysics, Austin, TX, United States
Projected changes to the regional impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (513585)
Shayne McGregor, Monash University, School of Earth, Atmosphere & Environment, Clayton, VIC, Australia, Sarah Perry, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia, Matthew H England, Univ New South Wales, Sydney, Australia and Alexander Sen Gupta, University of New South Wales, Climate Change Research Centre, Sydney, Australia
The effects of ENSO on Arctic sea ice in the CESM Large Ensemble and observations (527449)
Robin Patrick Clancy1, Cecilia M Bitz2 and Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth1, (1)University of Washington Seattle Campus, Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA, United States, (2)University of Washington, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA, United States
The Longitude of Tropical Pacific Deep Convection: A Perspective on ENSO Diversity and Implications for Western US Hydroclimate (530356)
Christina M Patricola1, Ian N Williams2, John Patrick OBrien3, Mark Daniel Risser1, Alan Rhoades2, Travis Allen O'Brien4, Paul Aaron Ullrich5, Dáithí A Stone6 and William Drew Collins7, (1)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Berkeley, CA, United States, (2)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States, (3)University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, United States, (4)Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Climate & Ecosystem Sciences Division, Berkeley, CA, United States, (5)Univ California Davis, Fremont, CA, United States, (6)Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Computational Research Division, Berkeley, CA, United States, (7)Berkeley Lab and UC Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States
Fundamental Behavior of ENSO phase-locking (534935)
Han-Ching Chen, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Atmospheric Sciences, Honolulu, HI, United States and Fei-Fei Jin, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States
Uncertainty in near-term global surface warming linked to tropical Pacific climate variability (541114)
Mojib Latif1, Mohammed H Bordbar2, Matthew H England3, Alexander Sen Gupta4, Agus Santoso5, Andrea Taschetto6, Thomas Martin7 and Wonsun Park1, (1)GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany, (2)IOW, Warnemünde, Germany, (3)Univ New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, (4)University of New South Wales, Climate Change Research Centre, Sydney, Australia, (5)Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Level 4 Mathews Building, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, (6)University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia, (7)GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, FB-1/ME, Kiel, Germany
Pacific Contribution to Decadal Winter Temperature Trends in the Arctic (552734)
Lea Svendsen1, Noel Keenlyside1, Yu Kosaka2 and Bunmei Taguchi3, (1)Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway, (2)Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, (3)University of Toyama, Faculty of Sustainable Design, Toyama, Japan
ITCZ shift and extra-tropical teleconnections drive ENSO response to strong tropical volcanic eruptions (558409)
Christina Karamperidou1, Francesco S.R. Pausata2, Davide Zanchettin3, Rodrigo Caballero2 and David Battisti4, (1)University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States, (2)Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden, (3)Max Planck Inst. for Meteorol., Hamburg, Germany, (4)University of Washington, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA, United States
Nonlinear SST-convection relationship and its application to understand the Bjerknes feedback during ENSO (562832)
Ruihuang Xie1, Mu Mu2 and Xianghui Fang2, (1)Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China, (2)Fudan University, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Shanghai, China
The Unusual Impact of the 1997 El Niño on East Australian Spring Rainfall (572425)
Peter van Rensch1,2, Julie Arblaster2,3, Ailie Gallant4, Wenju Cai5, Neville Nicholls4 and Paul James Durack6, (1)Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia, (2)Monash University, Melbourne, Australia, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (4)Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia, (5)Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia, (6)Lawrence Livermore Nat. Lab., Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Livermore, CA, United States
Dynamics of Coastal El Niño Events in Present and Future Climates (605532)
Jil Kiefer, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States, Christina Karamperidou, Univ Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, United States and Pedro N DiNezio, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States
El Niño-Southern Oscillation Teleconnections in a Warming Climate (624313)
Brandon Ricardo Molina1, Eric D Maloney2 and Michael B Natoli2, (1)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (2)Colorado State University, Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, CO, United States
