GC008
Assessment of Hydroclimatic Variability and Change in CMIP6 Climate Models

Session ID#: 77617

Session Description:
The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is anticipated in 2021. The IPCC AR6 relies heavily on phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) coordinated by the world’s major climate-modeling centers. The hydrological cycle links all components of the Earth’s climate system. Assessing its change and variability as the global climate warms is crucial for AR6.  The session will cover  a range of water cycle-related topics involving the spatial and temporal variations of temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and runoff, as simulated in CMIP6 models and observations. Specific topics include, but are not limited to, 1) trends of extreme precipitation and flooding, 2) evapotranspiration demand and droughts; 3) model evaluation using the latest techniques and data; 4) assessment of uncertainties in regional climate and hydrological regimes, e.g. the warming hole, and 5)  effects of decadal-to-multidecadal Pacific and Atlantic climate variability  on  regional hydroclimate.
Co-Organized:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • H - Hydrology
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • AMS: American Meteorological Society -
  • WCRP: World Climate Research Programme -
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1626 Global climate models [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1631 Land/atmosphere interactions [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1866 Soil moisture [HYDROLOGY]

Primary Convener:  Sanjiv Kumar, Auburn University, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn, AL, United States
Conveners:  James L Kinter, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States; Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, VA, United States, Zaitao Pan, Saint Louis University, Hartford, CT, United States and Kenneth Kunkel, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites (CICS), North Carolina State University, and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), Asheville, NC, United States
Primary Liaison:  Sanjiv Kumar, Auburn University, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn, AL, United States
 
Projected changes of interannual North American hydroclimate variability and predictability (Invited) (607994)
Matthew Newman, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States
 
An Analysis of Heavy Multi-day Precipitation Events In CMIP6 Model Simulations in Support of the Fifth National Climate Assessment (498933)
David R Easterling, NOAA Asheville, Asheville, NC, United States and Kenneth Kunkel, North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies, North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC, United States
 
Climate Change Projections of Drought in the CMIP6 Archive (Invited) (501877)
Benjamin Cook, NASA-GISS, New York, NY, United States, Katherine Marvel, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States and Park Williams, Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States
 
Evaluation of Temperature and Precipitation Trends and Long-Term Persistence in CMIP6 Twentieth-Century Climate Simulations (549454)
Yanan Duan and Sanjiv Kumar, Auburn University, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn, AL, United States
 
Global Precipitation Observations and CMIP/AMIP Calculations: Means, Trends and Intensity Changes (560853)
Robert F Adler, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States and Guojun Gu, ESSIC, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States
 
The Potential to Reduce Uncertainty in Regional Water Security Projections with Climate Models (568341)
Flavio Lehner1, Andy Wood1, Julie A Vano2, David M Lawrence1, Martyn P Clark3 and Justin S Mankin4,5, (1)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)University of Saskatchewan Coldwater Laboratory, Canmore, Canada, (4)LDEO of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States, (5)Dartmouth College, Department of Geography, Hanover, NH, United States
 
Evaluation of CMIP6 Models’ Performance on Simulation of Indian Summer Monsoon (569649)
Nivedita Dubey and Amey Pathak, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Agricultural and Food Engineering Department, Kharagpur, India
 
Changing ENSO-induced Rainfall Extremes under Global Warming (606024)
Sabiha Tabassum and Pedro N DiNezio, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States
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