V055
Volcanic Hazard Modeling, Risk Assessment and Uncertainty Quantification
Volcanic Hazard Modeling, Risk Assessment and Uncertainty Quantification
Session ID#: 78179
Session Description:
Effective volcanic risk management depends strongly on the degree of proactive policies of risk reduction. Ideally, these policies should be developed based on comprehensive volcanic risk assessments, which are completed with careful data collection such satellite and ground-based observations, subsequent modeling of the hazard uncertainties and elements at risk, and ultimately estimating the associated vulnerability. In reality, this rarely occurs. Instead, policies are commonly made based on incomplete hazard assessments and without careful consideration of exposure and vulnerability. At many active volcanoes, the data necessary to classify vulnerability is insufficiently catalogued, requiring the development of new methods to improve exposure information. In addition, models of volcanic processes able to identify interactions between volcanic hazard and vulnerability are limited by many sources of uncertainty. We welcome contributions showing how hazard modeling and risk assessment can be combined to increase preparedness and implement mitigation measures.
Index Terms:
3275 Uncertainty quantification [MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS]
4316 Physical modeling [NATURAL HAZARDS]
8485 Remote sensing of volcanoes [VOLCANOLOGY]
8488 Volcanic hazards and risks [VOLCANOLOGY]
Primary Convener: Ciro Del Negro, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione di Catania, Catania, Italy
Convener: Michael S Ramsey, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Geology and Environmental Science, Pittsburgh, PA, United States
Primary Liaison: Michael S Ramsey, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Geology and Environmental Science, Pittsburgh, PA, United States
See more of: Volcanology, Geochemistry and Petrology