GC076
Implications of Climate Change, Extreme Events, and Adaptation Potentials for Global Agriculture I eLightning

Friday, 11 December 2020: 05:30-06:30
Virtual
Primary Convener:  Jonas Jägermeyr, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States; Columbia University of New York, Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, NY, United States
Conveners:  Christoph Müller, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany and Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States
Primary Liaison:  Jonas Jägermeyr, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States; Columbia University of New York, Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, NY, United States
Chairs:  Jonas Jägermeyr1,2, Christoph Müller3 and Cynthia Rosenzweig1, (1)NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States(2)Columbia University of New York, Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, NY, United States(3)Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
OSPA Liaison:  Christoph Müller, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
05:30
A new integrated assessment framework for climate-smart food security in sub-Saharan Africa: methods and phase I results (Invited) (723578)
Andrew Challinor1, Stewart Jennings2, Jennie Macdiarmid3, Richard King4, Pete Smith3, Nuala Fitton3, Edward Pope5 and Heather Clark3, (1)University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2, United Kingdom, (2)University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom, (3)University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom, (4)Chatham House, London, United Kingdom, (5)Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
05:33
Simulation of extreme low crop yields. (Invited) (684802)
Senthold Asseng1, Rogerio de Souza Noia Junior1, Luc Olivier2, Daniel Wallach3, Alexander C Ruane4 and Jose Guarin2, (1)University of Florida, Ft Walton Beach, FL, United States, (2)University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States, (3)INRAE, Castanet Tolosan, France, (4)NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States
05:36
A Multi-variate Probabilistic Framework for Assessment of Heat Impact on Yields in India’s Wheat Bowl. (729858)
Mariam Zachariah, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Department of Civil Engineering, Mumbai, India and Arpita Mondal, Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering and Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India
05:39
Crop-driven cooling boosts agricultural yields (672942)
Ethan Coffel, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY, United States, Corey Samuel Lesk, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada, Jonathan Winter, Dartmouth College, Department of Geography, Hanover, NH, United States, Erich C Osterberg, Dartmouth College, Department of Earth Sciences, Hanover, NH, United States and Justin S Mankin, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
05:42
Global Agricultural Impacts of Stratospheric Aerosol Intervention With An Overshoot Scenario (763839)
Alan Robock1, Lili Xia1, Jonas Jägermeyr2 and Simone Tilmes3, (1)Rutgers University New Brunswick, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, (2)University of Chicago, Department of Computer Science, Chicago, United States, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Atmospheric Chemistry, Observations, and Modeling Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States
05:45
Global Agriculture: Variety Adaptation Potentials and Limitations (733205)
Florian Zabel1, Christoph Müller2, Joshua Wright Elliott3, Sara Minoli2, Jonas Jägermeyr4,5, Julia M. Schneider6, James A Franke7, Christian Folberth8, Louis M Francois9, Wenfeng Liu10, Thomas Pugh11, Stefan Olin12, Tobias B Hank13, Wolfram Mauser14 and Alexander C Ruane5, (1)Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Munich, Germany, (2)Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany, (3)University of Chicago, Department of Computer Science, Chicago, IL, United States, (4)University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States, (5)NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States, (6)Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Geography, Munich, Germany, (7)University Of Chicago, epartment of the Geophysical Sciences, Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy (RDCEP), Chicago, IL, United States, (8)IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, (9)University of Liège, Liège, Belgium, (10)EAWAG Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Duebendorf, Switzerland, (11)University of Birmingham, School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Sciences and Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, Birmingham, B15, United Kingdom, (12)Lund University, Department of physical geography and ecosystem science, Lund, Sweden, (13)LMU Munich, Munich, Germany, (14)Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Department of Geography, Munich, Germany
05:48
Global Patterns of Changing Agricultural Land Use in Drought Regions (751491)
Jennifer Kennedy, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States, George C Hurtt, University of Maryland, Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, MD, United States and Xin-Zhong Liang, University of Maryland, College Park, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD, United States
05:51
Influence of extreme weather stresses and synchrony of crop yield on formation and volume of the international wheat trade (711790)
Srishti Vishwakarma1, Xin Zhang1 and Vyacheslav Lyubchich2, (1)University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science Appalachian Laboratory, Frostburg, MD, United States, (2)University of Maryland (UMCES CBL), Solomons, MD, United States
05:54
Sensitivity of rainfed rice yields to historical and projected monsoon precipitation and temperature over South Asia (756818)
Carlo Montes, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Texcoco, Mexico, Nachiketa Acharya, Columbia University, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY, United States and Mathew A Stiller-Reeve, Konsulent Stiller-Reeve, Valestrandsfossen, Norway
05:57
The hidden signature of temperature-moisture couplings in the heat sensitivity of global crops (661995)
Corey Samuel Lesk, Columbia University of New York, Palisades, NY, United States, Ethan Coffel, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, United States, Jonathan Winter, Dartmouth College, Department of Geography, Hanover, NH, United States, Jakob Zscheischler, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland, Sonia I Seneviratne, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland, Deepak K Ray, University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Minneapolis, MN, United States and Radley M Horton, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States
06:00
Unique temporal patterns of future agricultural impacts – Changes in average yield and the volatility of regional production against global warming levels (718230)
Alexander C Ruane, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States, Jonas Jägermeyr, Columbia University of New York, Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, NY, United States, Christoph Müller, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany and Meridel Phillips, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States
06:03
Using emulation to explore effects of crop model uncertainty on projected land use and management (691421)
Sam S. Rabin, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research / Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe, Germany, James A Franke, University of Chicago, Department of the Geophysical Sciences, Chicago, IL, United States; University of Chicago, Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy, Chicago, IL, United States, Christoph Müller, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany, Peter Alexander, University of Edinburgh, School of Geosciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; University of Edinburgh, The Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies, Edinburgh, United Kingdom and Almut Arneth, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research / Atmospheric Environmental Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
06:06
Discussion