GC048
Implications of climate change, extreme events, and adaptation potentials for global agriculture

Session ID#: 158376

Session Description:
We invite submissions advancing our understanding of how climate change affects agriculture and the food system across larger spatial scales. This session emphasizes extreme weather event impacts -- such as frequency and severity of droughts, heat waves, and excess moisture -- and on adaptation potentials and challenges. Other topics of interest include long-term crop production impacts, changes in interannual variability, cropland shifts, changes in irrigation water requirements and nutrient use efficiencies, CO2 fertilization effects, trade and price responses, climate and crop model uncertainty assessments, crop nutritional quality, impact assessment of non-staple and less frequently studied crops, and many more. We particularly solicit studies leveraging latest climate change projections out of CMIP6, using various methodological approaches.
Index Terms:

0402 Agricultural systems [BIOGEOSCIENCES]
1622 Earth system modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]

Primary Convener:  Jonas Jägermeyr, Columbia University of New York, Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, United States; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States
Conveners:  Christoph Müller, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany, James A Franke, University Of Chicago, Department of the Geophysical Sciences, Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy, Chicago, United States and Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States
 
Heterogeneous impacts of excessive wetness on maize yields in China: Evidence from statistical yields and process-based crop models (1054023)
Weihang Liu and Tao Ye, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
 
Warming-driven changes in land atmosphere coupling cause shifting extreme heat regimes over croplands (1061498)
Ethan Coffel, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY, United States and Corey Samuel Lesk, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
 
Two-Stage Sampling for Crop Area Estimation: A Case Study in Ukraine (1061902)
Gasmine Myers, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States and Sergii Skakun, University of Maryland College Park, Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, United States
 
Global Famine After Nuclear War (1067529)
Alan Robock1, Lili Xia1, Kim Scherrer2, Cheryl S Harrison3 and Jonas Jägermeyr4,5, (1)Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, (2)University of Bergen, Department of Biological Sciences, Bergen, Norway, (3)Louisiana State University, Department of Ocean and Coastal Science, Baton Rouge, LA, United States, (4)NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States, (5)Columbia University of New York, Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, United States
 
Osiris: An R package to process climate impacts on agricultural yields for the Global Change Analysis Model (1072384)
Hamza Ahsan1, Abigail Snyder1, Zarrar Khan2, Page Kyle3 and Chris R Vernon4, (1)Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, United States, (2)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States, (3)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI), College Park, United States, (4)Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States
 
Understanding Carbon Allocation in Grapevines in Response to Extreme Heat Events (1073260)
Morgan Furze1,2, Joseph E Lozano1, Martina Galeano1, Nick Dokoozlian3, Luis Sanchez3, Andrew J McElrone1,4 and Elisabeth J Forrestel1, (1)University of California Davis, Department of Viticulture and Enology, Davis, United States, (2)Purdue University, Department of Botany and Plant Pathology; Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, West Lafayette, United States, (3)E&J Gallo, Modesto, United States, (4)USDA ARS, Davis, United States
 
Potential future agricultural production under stratospheric aerosol intervention with adaptive crop calendars (1075189)
Sam S. Rabin, Rutgers University New Brunswick, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, Danica L. Lombardozzi, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Bill Sacks, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, Sara Minoli, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany, Lili Xia, Rutgers Univ, New Brunswick, United States and Alan Robock, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United States
 
Machine learning emulators and empirical models combining climate and global crop models for seasonal agricultural production (1075861)
Alexander C Ruane1, Jonas Jägermeyr2 and Andres Castellano1, (1)NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States, (2)University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States
 
Combining Farmers and Irrigation Consortia’s Perspectives on Climate Change to Reduce Risk Aversion and Reinforce Policy Making at the Regional Scale (1077573)
Sandra Ricart, Politecnico di Milano, Environmental Intelligence Lab. Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering, Milano, 20133, Italy, Andrea Castelletti, Politecnico di Milano, Department of Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering, Milano, Italy and Claudio Gandolfi, Università degli Studi di Milano, DiSAA, Milan, Italy
 
Future Scenarios of Crop Water Footprint Across the African Continent (1087902)
Marta Tuninetti1, Vittorio Giordano2 and Francesco Laio1, (1)Politecnico di Torino, Torino, Italy, (2)Politecnico di Torino, Turin, Italy
 
Model-aided Climate Adaptation for Future Maize in the U.S. (1092147)
Jennifer Hsiao, University of Washington, Department of Biology, Seattle, WA, United States, Soo-Hyung Kim, University of Washington, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, Center for Urban Horticulture, Seattle, United States, Dennis J Timlin, USDA ARS, Cropping Systems and Climate Change Laboratory, Beltsville, United States, Nathan D. Mueller, Colorado State University, Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, Fort Collins, United States and Abigail L. S. Swann, University of Washington, Atmospheric Sciences and Biology, Seattle, United States
 
Evaluating Indices for Extreme Weather Stress on US Milk Yields (1097018)
Eunkyoung Choi, Colorado State University, Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Fort Collins, CO, United States and Nathan D. Mueller, Colorado State University, Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, Fort Collins, United States
 
The estimation of climate change impacts on wheat production by process-based model MATCRO-Wheat (1102072)
Maki Nakaguki, Hokkaido University, Graduate School of Global Food Resources, Sapporo, Japan, Tomomichi Kato, Hokkaido University, Research Faculty of Agriculture, Sapporo, Japan and Yuji Masutomi, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
 
Assessing Uncertainties in Estimating Potential Vegetation Water Demand (1107933)
Veronica Fritz, University of Missouri Columbia, College of Engineering, Columbia, MO, United States and Noel R Aloysius, University of Missouri, Biomedical, Biological, and Chemical Engineering, Columbia, United States
 
Projected increase of severe human heat stress and thermal climate zones as well as their associated population exposure under future climates over Africa. (1110433)
Alima Dajuma1, Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla2 and Moustapha Tall1, (1)African Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS), Kigali, Rwanda, (2)AIMS-Rwanda; African Institute for Mathematical Sciences of Rwanda, Kigali, Rwanda
 
Majority of Crop Production Shocks Explained by Fluctuations in Planted and Harvested Area in the US (1120040)
Dongyang Wei, University of Delaware, Department of Geography and Spatial Sciences, Newark, DE, United States, Jessica Gephart, American University, Washington DC, United States, Navin Ramankutty, University of British Columbia, IRES, Vancouver, BC, Canada and Kyle Frankel Davis, University of Delaware, Department of Geography & Spatial Sciences; Department of Plant & Soil Sciences, Newark, United States
 
In-season Operational Forecasts of Subnational Grain Production in Sub-Saharan Africa (1120847)
Donghoon Lee1, Frank Davenport1, Shraddhanand Shukla2, Laura Harrison1, Gregory J Husak3, Chris C Funk4, Michael E Budde5, James Rowland6, Amy McNally7 and James Verdin8, (1)University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States, (2)University of California Santa Barbara, Climate Hazards Group, Santa Barbara, CA, United States, (3)University of California Santa Barbara, Climate Hazards Center, Santa Barbara, CA, United States, (4)USGS, Sioux Falls, SD, United States, (5)Earth Resources Observation Systems Sioux Falls, Sioux Falls, SD, United States, (6)U.S. Geological Survey, Sioux Falls, SD, United States, (7)US Agency for International Development, Falls Church, United States, (8)US Agency for International Development, Washington, United States
 
Comparison between Machine Learning and Process-Based Model in Capturing the Yield Spatiotemporal Variability and Extremes in the U.S. Corn Belt (1123971)
Guiling Wang1, Qinqing Liu2, Meijian Yang3 and Jinbo Bi2, (1)University of Connecticut, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs, United States, (2)University of Connecticut, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Storrs, United States, (3)Cornell University, School of Integrative Plant Science, Soil and Crop Sciences Section, Ithaca, NY, United States
 
Impacts of Tropospheric Ozone and Climate Change on Global Agricultural Production (1125495)
Jose Guarin1,2, Jonas Jägermeyr1,2, Lisa Emberson3, Frank Dentener Dr4, Alexander C Ruane1, Christoph Müller5, Amos P. K. Tai6 and The AgMIP Ozone Phase 2 Team, (1)NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States, (2)Columbia University of New York, Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, United States, (3)University of York, Stockholm Environment Institute, York, United Kingdom, (4)European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy, (5)Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany, (6)The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Earth System Science Programme and Graduate Division of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Faculty of Science, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
 
The combination of cover crop and non-tillage practices reduced cash crop yield (1127464)
Yu Peng, Indian University Purdue University Indianapolis, Department of Earth Sciences, Indianapolis, United States, Lixin Wang, Indiana University Purdue University Indianapolis, Department of Earth Sciences, Indianapolis, United States, Pierre-Andre Jacinthe, Indiana University Purdue University Indianapolis, Indianapolis, IN, United States and Wei Ren, University of Kentucky, Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, Lexington, United States
 
AgMIP A-Teams in Africa: Scoping Integrated National and Regional Assessments (1127929)
Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States
 
Warm pool atmospheric heating amplifies the Walker Circulation, providing opportunities for successful long-lead drought predictions (1133248)
Chris C Funk1, Sharon E Nicholson2, Andreas H. Fink3, Zewdu Segele4, Hussen Endris4, Laura Harrison1, Gideon Galu5 and Diriba Korecha6, (1)University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States, (2)Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, United States, (3)Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe, Germany, (4)IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, Nairobi, Kenya, (5)FEWS NET, Nairobi, Kenya, (6)FEWS NET, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
 
Are Beneficial Management Practices Still “Beneficial” Under Warming Climate? (1134046)
Elmira Hassanzadeh, Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal, Département des génies civil, géologique et des mines, Montreal, QC, Canada, Mohamed Khalil Zammali, Sanexen Environmental Services Inc., Montreal, QC, Canada, Ali Nazemi, Concordia University, Department of Building, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Montreal, QC, Canada and Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt, Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, School of Environment and Sustainability, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
 
Limits to Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture: What Do We Know Now (1134901)
Gerald C Nelson, Retired, Washington, DC, United States; University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Agricultural and Consumer Economics, Urbana, United States
 
Silver lining to a climate crisis: multiple prospects for alleviating crop waterlogging under future climates (1135440)
Ke Liu, Matthew Tom Harrison and Franco Bilotto, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, Launceston, TAS, Australia
 
The Coincidence of Climate Extremes with Sensitive Crop Growth Phases: Projected Impact on Crop Production and Sustainable Crop Water Use in the IGB River basins (1138985)
Qurat UL AIN Ahmad1, Eddy Moors2, Ilyas Masih3, Nuzba Shaheen1, Hester Biemans4 and Muhammad Adnan5, (1)Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC), Islamabad, Pakistan, (2)Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculty of Science, Earth Sciences department, Amsterdam, Netherlands, (3)IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Delft, Netherlands, (4)Wageningen University and Research Center, Wageningen, Netherlands, (5)MINISTRY OF CLIMATE CHANGE, GLOBAL CHANGE IMPACT STUDIES CENTRE, Islamabad, Pakistan
 
Jetstream driven risks of synchronized low harvests in current and future climates (Invited) (1150964)
Kai Kornhuber1, Corey Samuel Lesk2, Jonas Jägermeyr3, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner4, Peter Pfleiderer4 and Radley Horton5, (1)Columbia University, Earth Institute/Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, New York, United States, (2)McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada, (3)University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States, (4)Climate Analytics GmbH, Berlin, Germany, (5)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States
 
Impact on phenology, water requirement, water demand and yield of Kharif rice under future climate in Indo-Gangetic plains (1151323)
Jyoti Singh, Rutgers University New Brunswick, New Brunswick, NJ, United States and Sandeep Sahany, Centre for Climate Research Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
 
Adaptation Strategies for Corn Yield under Climate Change in Deep South, USA (1152255)
Xiaoliang Han, The University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States and Hamid Moradkhani, The University of Alabama, Center for Complex Hydrosystems Research, Tuscaloosa, United States
 
Sustainable Expansion of Irrigation for improving Food Security under Climate Change (1155339)
Juliana Arbelaez Gaviria1,2, Amanda Palazzo3, Petr Havlik3, Esther Boere3, Peter Burek3,4, Jury Balkovic3 and Miroslav Trnka5,6, (1)Global Change Research Institute CAS, Department of Climate change impacts on agroecosystem, Brno, Czech Republic, (2)Mendel University in Brno, Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Brno, Czech Republic, (3)IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Biodiversity and Natural Resources Program, Laxenburg, Austria, (4)International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, (5)Mendel University, Department of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Brno, Czech Republic, (6)Global Change Research Institute CAS, Department of Climate change impacts on agroecosystems, Brno, Czech Republic
 
Parametrization of Crop Models Using UAS Captured Data (1157329)
Bilal Abughali, Purdue University, Agricultural & Biological Engineering, West Lafayette, United States and Keith Aric Cherkauer, Purdue University, Agricultural & Biological Engineering, West Lafayette, IN, United States
 
Climate change impacts and adaptation potential for agriculture and food systems (Invited) (1163514)
Rachel Bezner Kerr, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States and Toshihiro Hasegawa, National Agricultural and Food Research Organization (NARO), Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba, Japan
 
Knowledge Guided Machine Learning for Wheat Yield Downscaling Based on Global Gridded Crop Models (1179639)
Miao TONG1,2, Zhenong Jin3, Licheng LIU3 and Erfu Dai1,2, (1)Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, China, (2)University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, (3)University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Department of Bioproducts and Biosystems Engineering, St. Paul, United States
 
Towards accurate cropland area estimation with Earth observations and machine learning in Sub-Saharan Africa (1183210)
Adebowale Daniel Adebayo, Columbia, MARYLAND, UNITED STATES, Hannah Rae Kerner, University of Maryland, College Park, Geography, College Park, MD, United States, Ivan Zvonkov, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, United States, Gabriel Tseng, McGill University, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Montreal, QC, Canada and Catherine Lilian Nakalembe, University of Maryland College Park, Geographical Sciences, College Park, MD, United States
 
Evaluating Intense and Severe Convective Damage to Agricultural Crops using ECOSTRESS Observations (1184351)
Emily F Wisinski1, Jordan R Bell2 and Andrew Molthan2, (1)University of Alabama in Huntsville, Department of Atmospheric and Earth Science, Huntsville, AL, United States, (2)NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL, United States
 
Assessing the impact of climatic and non-climatic drivers on wheat yield shocks (1184918)
Srishti Vishwakarma1, Xin Zhang1 and Vyacheslav Lyubchich2, (1)University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science Appalachian Laboratory, Frostburg, United States, (2)University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, Solomons, United States
 
Historical records of maize growing periods suggest severe yield losses in projected no-adaptation scenarios may be alleviated through cultivar choice (1186213)
Haynes Stephens, University of Chicago, Department of the Geophysical Sciences, Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy (RDCEP), Chicago, IL, United States, James A Franke, University Of Chicago, Department of the Geophysical Sciences, Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy, Chicago, United States, Jonas Jägermeyr, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States, Christoph Müller, University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich, United Kingdom, Katherine Dixon, University of Chicago, Department of Ecology and Evolution, Chicago, IL, United States, Charles Gardner, University of Chicago, Chicago, United States and Elisabeth J Moyer, University of Chicago, Department of the Geophysical Sciences, Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy, Chicago, IL, United States
 
Climate Change Impacts on Blue and Green Water Resources in Canadian Prairies (1187916)
Monireh Faramarzi and Pouya Khalili, University of Alberta, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Edmonton, AB, Canada
 
Precision Conservation: Modeling Alternative Scenarios On Low Productivity Lands (1188131)
Guanyuan Shuai, Michigan State University, Earth and Environmental Sciences, East Lansing, MI, United States, Lydia Price, Michigan State University, Earth and Environmental Sciences, East Lansing, United States and Bruno Basso, Michigan State University, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, East Lansing, United States
 
Crop residue decomposition under current and future climate scenarios (1189964)
Alejo Ruiz, Michael J Castellano and Sotirios Archontoulis, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United States
 
Precision conservation: a multi-model ensemble approach for bioenergy feedstocks production on low productivity lands (1190291)
Fidel Maureira1, Ames Fowler2, Lydia Price2, Brian Baer2, Mukta Sharma2 and Bruno Basso3, (1)Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United States, (2)Michigan State University, Earth and Environmental Sciences, East Lansing, United States, (3)Michigan State University, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, East Lansing, United States
 
Assessing Agricultural Losses due to Extreme Weather Events in Delmarva Peninsula using Machine Learning Approaches (1190700)
Zahra Nourali, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, UNITED STATES and Julie Elizabeth Shortridge, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, United States
 
Increasing Sensitivity of Forests to Disturbances Under the Changing Climate (1198056)
Meng Liu1,2 and William Anderegg2, (1)Texas A&M University, Department of Ecology and Conservation Biology, College Station, United States, (2)University of Utah, School of Biological Sciences, Salt Lake City, United States
 
Agroclimatic Seasonal Limitations by 2100: North Dakota and the World (1199157)
Kaela Lucke, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND, United States, Alexander C Ruane, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States and Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States
 
Impacts of future climate change on global food production: perspectives from model simulations of multiple emission scenarios (1200941)
Hanqin Tian1, Yongfa You2, Naiqing Pan3, Zihao Bian4, Shufen Pan2, Xiang Gao5, C Adam Schlosser5, Andrei P Sokolov5 and Angelo Gurgel6, (1)Boston College, Schiller Institute for Integrated Science and Society, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Chestnut Hill, United States, (2)Auburn University, International Center for Climate and Global Change Research and College of Forestry, Wildlife and Environment, Auburn, United States, (3)Auburn University, International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, College of Forestry, Wildlife and Environment, Auburn, United States, (4)USDA Forest Service, Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, Research Triangle Park, United States, (5)Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA, United States, (6)Fundação Getulio Vargas, São Paulo, Brazil
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