A058
Extreme Weather Events: Forecast skill, Uncertainty Quantification and Impact Modeling
Session ID#: 159839
Session Description:
Severe weather in the form of winter storms, tornadoes, thunderstorms, hurricanes and heat waves is a cause of major disruptions in human lives, critical infrastructure and the environment. Skillful prediction of such extreme events through numerical weather prediction, statistical techniques or their combination in hybrid dynamical-statistical methods is crucial for managing preparedness, emergency response, and mitigation of impacts. Additionally, understanding forecast uncertainty (due to e.g. initial conditions and model error, or unresolved physical processes) improves situational awareness and influences confidence in impact modeling. This session is dedicated to the assessment of extreme weather prediction and associated impacts and solicits abstracts from a broad range of research focused on:
- Forecasting of extreme weather events across various temporal and spatial scales.
- Understanding sources of forecast uncertainty (e.g. through dynamical and statistical ensembles).
- Influence of weather forecast uncertainty on preparing for and managing impacts of severe weather (e.g. floods, wildfires, power outages).
- Social vulnerability to extreme weather forecasting, particularly applied to sensitive populations and minorities.
Index Terms:
1880 Water management [HYDROLOGY]
3329 Mesoscale meteorology [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3354 Precipitation [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4313 Extreme events [NATURAL HAZARDS]
Primary Convener: Alison Cobb, University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, La Jolla, United States
Conveners: Marina Astitha, University of Connecticut, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs, United States, Efthymios Ioannis Nikolopoulos, Florida Institute of Technology, Mechanical and Civil Engineering, Melbourne, FL, United States and Forest Cannon, Tomorrow.io, San Diego, CA, United States
Decadal Prediction Skill for Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extreme Climate Events (1055746)
Carlos Delgado, Markus Donat, Albert Soret, Nube González Reviriego, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, An-Chi Ho, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Margarida Samsó Cabré and Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
Improving Wind Gust Prediction with the Combination of WRF and Machine Learning Algorithms (1083390)
Israt Jahan1, Marina Astitha1 and Diego Cerrai2,3, (1)University of Connecticut, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs, United States, (2)University of Connecticut, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Groton, CT, United States, (3)Eversource Energy Center, University of Connecticut, Storrs, United States
Probabilistic and Deterministic Outage Forecasts Assessment over the Northeast United States (1090222)
Diego Cerrai, University of Connecticut, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Groton, CT, United States, Mikayla Friday, University of South Florida, Tampa, United States and Aaron Spaulding, University of Connecticut, Storrs, United States
The Late January 2021 Atmospheric River Event in California: Meteorological Characteristics, Predictability, and Sources of Forecast Uncertainty (1090943)
Christopher Castellano, Brian Kawzenuk, Jason Cordeira, Chad Hecht, Samuel Bartlett and Shawn Roj, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States
Real-time North American Ensemble Forecast of Hazardous Air Quality Events (1109208)
Yunyao Li1, Daniel Tong1, Peewara Makkaroon1, Timothy M DelSole1, Youhua Tang2, Patrick C Campbell3,4, Barry Baker4, Anton Darmenov5, Ravan Ahmadov6 and Edward J Hyer7, (1)George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, VA, United States, (2)NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, College Park, United States, (3)George Mason University, Fairfax, United States, (4)NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, Chemical Modeling and Emissions Group, College Park, United States, (5)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (6)CU/CIRES and NOAA/GSL, Boulder, CO, United States, (7)Naval Research Laboratory, Marine Meteorology Division, Monterey, CA, United States
Investigating the Uncertainties of Forecasting NE Cold Season Precipitation in NWP Models (1116842)
Yanna Chen, Albany, New York, UNITED STATES, Robert G Fovell, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, United States and Everette Joseph, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Present and Future Climate Sensitivity Studies of Downslope Winds in Boulder, Colorado (1119508)
McKenzie Larson, University of Colorado at Boulder, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, Christine A Shields, NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States, Gerald Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Andrew Charles Winters, University of Colorado Boulder, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, United States, Annareli Morales, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, United States and Aneesh Subramanian, University of Colorado at Boulder, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, United States
Investigating the potential of forecast products to inform extreme event analysis and multi-scale landslide hazard assessment (Invited) (1121911)
Dalia Kirschbaum1, Thomas Stanley2, Sana Khan3, Nishan Kumar Biswas4, Robert Emberson2 and Elijah Orland2, (1)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Earth Sciences Division, Greenbelt, United States, (2)University of Maryland Baltimore County, GESTAR-II, Baltimore, United States, (3)Palladium, Data Science, Climate, Washington, D.C., United States, (4)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Hydrological Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Observing System Experiment of Korea Intensive Observation Data for Summer Precipitation Forecast (1140799)
Ji-Won Lee1, Ki-Hong Min2 and Gyuwon Lee2, (1)Kyungpook National University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Center for Atmospheric Remote Sensing, Daegu, Korea, Republic of (South), (2)Kyungpook National University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Center for Atmospheric Remote Sensing, Daegu, South Korea
WRF- SWMM Coupled Model Performance Assessment With LCZ Classifications (1149550)
Nagaraju Gaddam1, Shubha Avinash1, Abhinav Wadhwa1, Likhitha Pentakota1 and Pradeep Mujumdar2, (1)Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, Interdisciplinary Centre for Water Research (ICWaR), Bangalore, India, (2)Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, Department of Civil Engineering, Interdisciplinary Center for Water Research, Bangalore, India
Demonstration of a Probabilistic Flood Prediction Tool at Mission Critical Infrastructure on United States Military Installations (1160229)
Sean Matus, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Urbana, IL, United States, Daniel Gambill, US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Construction Engineering Research Laboratory, Champaign, United States, Sandra LeGrand, US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Geospatial Research Laboratory, Alexandria, United States, John B Eylander, US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, Vicksburg, United States, Adam W Sisco, USACE/ERDC/CHL, Vicksburg, United States, Alex R Gallagher, USACE/ERDC/CRREL, Hanover, United States, Brendon Hoch, US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, Hanover, United States and Francina Dominguez, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Urbana, IL, United States
Seasonal Predictability of Lightning over the Global Hotspot Regions (1165383)
Chandrima Mallick1,2, Anupam Hazra1, Subodh Kumar Saha1, Hemantkumar S Chaudhari1, Samir Pokhrel1, Mahen Konwar1, Ushnanshu Dutta1, Greeshma M Mohan1 and Gayatri Vani Kanchibhotla3, (1)Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India, (2)University of Pune, Pune, India, (3)Indian Meteorological Department, New Delhi, India
High-resolution simulations of Hurricane Ida using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (1171760)
Sina Khani, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States and Clint Dawson, University of Texas at Austin, Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences, Department of Aerospace Engineering and Engineering Mechanics, Austin, TX, United States
Verification of the WPC Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) (1174729)
Sarah Pappas, Marshall University, Huntington, WV, United States, Joshua Kastman, NOAA NWS Weather Prediction Center, College Park, United States and James A. Nelson Jr, National Weather Service Alaska Region Headquarters, Environmental Scientific Services Division, Anchorage, AK, United States
Deep Learning Forecast Uncertainty for Precipitation over Western US (1176531)
Weiming Hu1, Mohammadvaghef Ghazvinian1, Will Chapman2, Agniv Sengupta1, Luca Delle Monache1 and F Martin Ralph1, (1)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), La Jolla, United States, (2)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
Impact of Ensemble Design in the Rapid Refresh Forecast System Using Time Lagging and Stochastic Perturbations (1181762)
Will Mayfield1,2, Jeff Beck2,3, Gerard Ketefian2,4, Brianne Nelson1,2, Christina P Kalb1,2, Cassandra Mahakian5 and Michelle Harrold1,2, (1)NCAR, RAL, Boulder, United States, (2)Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, United States, (3)NOAA Global System Laboratory, Colorado State University/CIRA, Boulder, United States, (4)NOAA Global System Laboratory, University of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, United States, (5)Scripps College, Claremont, United States
Predicting Weather-Caused Power Outages: A New National Scale Model (1194894)
Donatella Pasqualini, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States, Peter Lawrence Watson, University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Groton, CT, United States, Mark Hinds, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, United States and Robert Nolan Janko, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, United States
Climate Harmonic Trends and Beats (1195616)
Anatoliy Koshulko, Geosphere S&T, Kyiv, Ukraine and Oleksiy Koshulko, Senior Research Associate at V.M. Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kiyv, Ukraine
Machine Learning Based Heatwave Prediction Model Using Local Ensemble Prediction System (1196925)
Ahean Jang, Kyungpook National University, Daegu, Korea, Republic of (South), Ki-Hong Min, Kyungpook National University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Center for Atmospheric Remote Sensing, Daegu, South Korea, Dong-Hyun Cha, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan, South Korea and Myong-In Lee, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan, Korea, Republic of (South)
Requirements, Uncertainties, and Challenges in Coupled Fire Weather – Fire Behavior Forecasting (1197333)
Branko Kosovic1, Amanda Anderson2, Amy DeCastro3, Maria Frediani4, Masih Eghdami5, Pedro Jiménez1, Timothy W Juliano1, Jason C. Knievel6 and Domingo Munoz-Esparza2, (1)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (4)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (5)Duke University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Durham, NC, United States, (6)NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States
