PP003
Advancing Paleoclimatology by Combining Data, Models, and Theory
Session ID#: 160561
Session Description:
Our most powerful constraints on the climate system are developed through combining observational data with models and theory. Together these tools allow us to test hypotheses, quantify the limits of knowledge, develop the next generation of models and data retrievals, and ultimately advance the foundational principles that underpin our understanding of the climate system. This session will feature intersections among these approaches in advancing paleoclimatology. Highlighted topics include developments in relating environmental variables to paleoclimate proxies, techniques for combining numerical models and data (including data assimilation and machine learning methods), and integration of idealized models and model hierarchies. We invite submissions related to the design and incorporation of new proxy system models, reconstructions of past ecosystems and climates, uncertainty quantification, and data-model intercomparison to address key paleoclimate questions. These questions may include but are not limited to characterizing climate variability, large-scale dynamics, and extremes, and assessing climate sensitivity.
Index Terms:
1626 Global climate models [GLOBAL CHANGE]
3315 Data assimilation [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3344 Paleoclimatology [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4994 Instruments and techniques [PALEOCEANOGRAPHY]
Primary Convener: Alyssa R. Atwood, Florida State University, Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Tallahassee, FL, United States
Conveners: Daniel E Amrhein, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, Jacob Scheff, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, United States and Sara C Sanchez, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States
Observation Error Estimation in Climate Proxies with Data Assimilation and Innovation Statistics (1057780)
Atsushi Okazaki, Hirosaki University, Hirosaki, Japan, Shunji Kotsuki, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan, Diego Saúl Carrió DieCarrió, The University of the Balearic Islands, Palma de Mallorca, Spain and Kei Yoshimura, The University of Tokyo, Institute of Industrial Science, Kashiwa, Japan
Central American topographic gap wind changes since the last ice age (1064419)
Patrick A Rafter, University of California Irvine, Earth System Science, Irvine, United States, Jane Wilson Baldwin, University of California Irvine, Earth System Science, Irvine, CA, United States, Kristopher B Karnauskas, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, United States, Frank J Pavia, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States and Sara C Sanchez, University of Colorado at Boulder, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, United States
New Constraints on Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity using a Large Ensemble of Climate Simulations with Cloud Feedback Uncertainties (1064899)
David J Ullman, Northland College, Ashland, WI, United States, Andreas Schmittner, Oregon State University, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Corvallis, United States, Jessica E Tierney, University of Arizona, Department of Geosciences, Tucson, AZ, United States and Matthew Osman, University of Arizona, Tucson, United States
Reconstructing Holocene temperatures – Using data assimilation to explore Holocene climate in space and time (1075492)
Michael P Erb1, Nicholas McKay2, Nathan John Steiger3, Sylvia Dee4, Chris Hancock1, Ruza F Ivanovic5, Lauren J Gregoire6 and Paul J Valdes7, (1)Northern Arizona University, School of Earth and Sustainability, Flagstaff, AZ, United States, (2)Northern Arizona University, School of Earth and Sustainability, Flagstaff, United States, (3)Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, (4)Rice University, Department of Earth, Environmental and Planetary Sciences, Houston, United States, (5)University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds, LS2, United Kingdom, (6)University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds, United Kingdom, (7)University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
First Constraints on Disentangling Net Carbon Cycle Feedbacks from Initial Carbon Forcings Across the PETM (1077952)
Daniel Doherty1, Sarah E. Greene2, Stephen M Jones1, Tom Dunkley Jones1 and Andy Ridgwell3, (1)University of Birmingham, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Birmingham, United Kingdom, (2)University of Birmingham, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Birmingham, B15, United Kingdom, (3)University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom
Sustained mid-Pliocene warmth led to deep water formation in the North Pacific (Invited) (1102969)
Heather L Ford1, Natalie Burls2, Peter Jacobs3, Friso De Graaf1, Alexandra Jahn4, Rocio P Caballero-Gill5, David A Hodell6 and Alexey V Fedorov7, (1)Queen Mary, University of London, School of Geography, London, United Kingdom, (2)George Mason University, Fairfax, United States, (3)George Mason University, Department of Environmental Science and Policy, Fairfax, VA, United States, (4)University of Colorado Boulder, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR), Boulder, CO, United States, (5)George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States, (6)University of Cambridge, Godwin Laboratory for Palaeoclimate Research, Cambridge, United Kingdom, (7)Yale University, New Haven, United States
A Hybrid Analog Offline EnKF for Paleoclimate Data Assimilation (1104515)
HaoHao Sun1, Lili Lei2, Zhengyu Liu3, Liang Ning4 and Zhe-Min Tan1, (1)Nanjing University, Nanjing, China, (2)Nanjing University, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing, China, (3)The Ohio State University, Department of Geography, Columbus, United States, (4)University of Massachusetts Amherst, Geoscience, Amherst, United States
Reducing solar constant causes abnormal local warming under special paleo-geography configuration (1105012)
Mengyu Wei1, Jun Yang1, Xiang Li2, Jiawenjing Lan1 and Jiaqi Guo1, (1)Peking University, Beijing, China, (2)Peking University, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Beijing, China
Spatial and temporal dynamics of abrupt change in tropical African forests over the last 21kyrs (1109158)
Sarah Ivory, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, University Park, PA, United States, Anne-Marie Lézine, LOCEAN, Paris Cedex 05, France, Alejandra Domic, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, University Park, United States, John W Williams, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Geography & Center for Climatic Research, Madison, United States, Julien Emile-Geay, Univ. of Southern California, Department of Earth Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, United States, Simon J Goring, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, United States, Socorro Dominguez Vidana, University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States and Nicholas McKay, University of Arizona, Tucson, United States
Using Isotope-Enabled Climate Simulations to Investigate CO2- and Orbitally- Driven Oxygen Isotope Variability in the Early Eocene (1110687)
Julia Campbell1, Christopher J Poulsen2, Jessica E Tierney3, Jiang Zhu4 and Jeremy J Keeler1, (1)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (2)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (3)University of Arizona, Department of Geosciences, Tucson, AZ, United States, (4)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, United States
Modeling the Production of Heinrich Layers with an IRD Enabled Iceberg Model in MITgcm (1114585)
David McGee, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Cambridge, United States, Alan Condron, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole, MA, United States and Michaela Fendrock, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, United States
Multiple Equilibria in a Coupled Climate-Carbon Model (1123262)
Brian E J Rose, University at Albany State University of New York, Department of Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences, Albany, United States and Fangze Zhu, University at Albany State University of New York, Albany, NY, United States
Seasonal Lake Surface Water Temperature to Mean Annual Air Temperature Relationships and Applications: An Analysis of 1000 Lakes (1128220)
Alexa Terrazas1, Nathan Hwangbo2, Alexandrea Jay Arnold1, Robert Nguyen Ulrich3 and Aradhna E. Tripati4, (1)University of California Los Angeles, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, United States, (2)University of California Los Angeles, Statistics, Los Angeles, United States, (3)University of California, Los Angeles, Department of Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences, Los Angeles, United States, (4)University of California, Los Angeles, Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences; Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, Los Angeles, United States
Using Bayesian Methods to Detect Abrupt Transitions in Transient Holocene Climate Model Simulations (1132412)
Allison E Lawman1, Carrie Morrill2, Bette L Otto-Bliesner3, Esther C Brady3 and Robert A Tomas4, (1)Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, United States, (2)NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Boulder, United States, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (4)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
Reconstruction of Daily Weather in the 1810s by Diary Data Assimilation (1137704)
Xiaoxing Wang1, Kinya Toride2,3 and Kei Yoshimura2, (1)The University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, Kashiwa, Japan, (2)The University of Tokyo, Institute of Industrial Science, Kashiwa, Japan, (3)University of Washington, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, United States
Was the Last Glacial Maximum ‘Dry’? Questioning the Glacial Aridity Paradigm Using Speleothem Palynology in the Southern Hemisphere Subtropics (1139043)
Kale Sniderman, University of Melbourne, School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Parkville, Australia, Rieneke Weij, University of Cape Town, Department of Geological Sciences, Cape Town, South Africa, John Charles Hellstrom, University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia and Jon D Woodhead, Univ Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
Advancing paleoclimate reconstructions using proxy system models, theory and statistics (Invited) (1143184)
Thomas Laepple1,2, Andrew Mark Dolman1, Raphaël Hébert1 and Fyntan Merlin Shaw1, (1)Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz-Center for Polar and Marine Research Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, (2)University of Bremen, MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences and Faculty of Geosciences, Bremen, Germany
Multiple ocean equilibria cause decoupling of the atmospheric pCO2 and regional temperatures (1154836)
Daeun Lee1, Christopher J Poulsen1 and R. Paul Acosta2, (1)University of Michigan, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Ann Arbor, United States, (2)George Mason University Fairfax, Atmospheric, Oceanic & Earth Sciences, Fairfax, United States
Drivers of Spatial Variations in the Temporal Spectra of North Atlantic Upper Ocean Temperatures in Models and Proxy Records (1159487)
Noah Abner Rosenberg, University of Washington, School of Oceanography, Seattle, United States, Daniel E Amrhein, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, LuAnne Thompson, University of Washington, Oceanography, Seattle, WA, United States and Dafydd Stephenson, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Ocean and Earth Science, Boulder, CO, United States
Spatiotemporal Variations in Precipitation Isotopes and Hydroclimate Across Africa Since the Last Glacial Maximum: A Data-Model Synthesis (1166027)
Sloane Garelick, Brown University, Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Providence, RI, United States, James M Russell, Brown University, Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Providence, United States, Xiaojing Du, Brown University, Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Providence, RI, United States, Bette L Otto-Bliesner, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, United States, Zhengyu Liu, The Ohio State University, Department of Geography, Columbus, United States and Yu Gao, Peking University, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Beijing, China
Modeling Continental Weathering Across The End-Permian Mass Extinction (1167151)
Mayala Nsingi1, Markus Adloff2, Qingting Wu1, Edwin Lotero3 and Ying Cui4, (1)Montclair State University, Department of Earth and Environmental Science, Montclair, United States, (2)University of Bern, Climate and Environmental Physics (KUP), Bern, Switzerland, (3)Rutgers University, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Newark, United States, (4)Montclair State University, Department of Earth and Environmental Studies, Montclair, NJ, United States
Assessment of Drought Characteristics of the Past Millennium using a High Resolution PMIP4 Model (1178659)
Stuart Edris, Norman, OK, UNITED STATES, Jeffrey B Basara, University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology; School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science, Norman, United States, Jordan I Christian, University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, Norman, United States, Jason C Furtado, University of Oklahoma, School of Meterology, Norman, OK, United States, Amy McGovern, University of Oklahoma, Computer Science; School of Meteorology, Norman, United States and Xiangming Xiao, Department of Microbiology and Plant Biology, Center for Spatial Analysis, University of Oklahoma, Norman, United States
Modeling Eocene-Aged Oceanic ε144Nd Distribution with CESM 1.2 (1181512)
Adam Aleksinski, Purdue University, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, West Lafayette, IN, United States, Matt Huber, Purdue University, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, West Lafayette, United States, Jiang Zhu, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, United States and Alexandra Jahn, University of Colorado Boulder, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR), Boulder, CO, United States
Constraining LGM Ocean Carbonate Chemistry and Circulation using Data Assimilation and cGenie (1183178)
Michelle Elizabeth Frazer, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, University Park, PA, United States, Lee Robert Kump, The Pennsylvania State University, Department of Geosciences, University Park, PA, United States and Andy Ridgwell, University of California Riverside, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Riverside, CA, United States
Fingerprinting Low-Frequency Holocene Temperature and Precipitation Variability in Forced and Unforced Climate Models (1183912)
Rebecca Cleveland Stout, University of Washington, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, United States, Cristian Proistosescu, University of Illinois Urbana‐Champaign, Champaign, United States and Gerard Roe, University of Washington, Seattle, United States
Global Synthesis of Regional Holocene Hydroclimate Variability Using Proxy and Model Data (1186251)
Chris Hancock1, Nicholas McKay2, Michael P Erb2, Ruza F Ivanovic3, Lauren J Gregoire4 and Paul J Valdes4, (1)Northern Arizona University, School of Earth and Sustainability, Flagstaff, AZ, United States, (2)Northern Arizona University, School of Earth and Sustainability, Flagstaff, United States, (3)University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds, LS2, United Kingdom, (4)University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
Connecting warming patterns of the paleo-ocean to our future (1192669)
Yige Zhang1, Xiaoqing Liu1, Lei Wang2, Matt Huber3 and Ping Chang4, (1)Texas A&M University, Department of Oceanography, College Station, United States, (2)Purdue University, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, West Lafayette, IN, United States, (3)Purdue University, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, West Lafayette, United States, (4)Texas A&M University, Department of Oceanography, College Station, TX, United States
Calibrating a proxy for North Pacific marine heatwaves from individual foraminifera oxygen isotope composition (1196452)
Casey Saenger, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA, United States, Alexander C Gagnon, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, WA, United States, Carlos Jimenez-Diaz, Western Washington University, Bellingham, United States and Jennifer S Fehrenbacher, Oregon State University, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Corvallis, OR, United States
Nearly enclosed bays as oases of life on Snowball Earth (1197980)
Greta Shum, University of Washington, Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, United States, Marysa M Lague, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA, United States, Cecilia M Bitz, University of Washington, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA, United States, Abigail L. S. Swann, University of Washington, Atmospheric Sciences and Biology, Seattle, United States, Edwin D Waddington, University of Washington, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Seattle, WA, United States and Stephen G Warren, Univ Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
