A038
Climate Sensitivity and Feedbacks: Advances and New Paradigms

Session ID#: 157102

Session Description:
A major goal of current climate research is to reduce uncertainty in metrics of large-scale forced climate responses, such as the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS), the eventual warming in response to doubled atmospheric CO2. The ECS is estimated to have a likely range of 2.5-4K, a range largely due to clouds and other moist processes. These processes are deeply intertwined and are linked to changes in societally important factors such as precipitation. This session explores recent advances in understanding large-scale climate response to climate forcings. We welcome submissions on theory, observations and modelling studies of climate feedbacks, climate sensitivity, and climate responses of precipitation and large-scale dynamics, especially those exploring novel evaluation techniques such as emergent constraints, and new ways of thinking about processes that govern climate's response to external forcing.
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1620 Climate dynamics [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1626 Global climate models [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1627 Coupled models of the climate system [GLOBAL CHANGE]

Primary Convener:  Chad William Thackeray, University of California Los Angeles, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, United States
Conveners:  Maria Rugenstein, Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Fort Collins, United States, Mark Richardson, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States and Daniel McCoy, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY, United States
 
Revisiting an Emergent Constraint on Climate Sensitivity from Global Temperature Variability using Paleoclimate Data (1044463)
Stephen Cropper, University of California Los Angeles, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, United States, Chad William Thackeray, University of California Los Angeles, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, United States and Julien Emile-Geay, Univ. of Southern California, Department of Earth Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, United States
 
Non-Linear Climate Response to Tropical SST Perturbations Explained by a Convective Threshold (1052219)
Andrew Williams, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, Jonah Bloch-Johnson, National Centre for Atmospheric Research, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom and Nadir Jeevanjee, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States
 
Optimally Combining Climate Models and Observations through Machine Learning (1066073)
Francesco Immorlano1,2, Marco Chiarelli2,3, Gabriele Accarino1,2, Giovanni Aloisio1,2 and Pierre Gentine4, (1)University of Salento, Department of Engineering for Innovation, Lecce, Italy, (2)Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Lecce, Italy, (3)University of Salento, Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences and Technologies, Lecce, Italy, (4)Columbia University, Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, New York, NY, United States
 
Understanding inter-model differences in future summer onset over the northern high latitudes (1071139)
BoJoung Park, POSTECH Pohang University of Science, Pohang, Korea, Republic of (South), Seung-Ki Min, POSTECH, Pohang, Korea, Republic of (South) and Young-hee Ryu, POSTECH, Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang, South Korea
 
Evaluation of Individual Cloud Feedbacks in CMIP6 Models Using CERES Observations (1092907)
Li-Wei Chao, Texas A&M University College Station, College Station, TX, United States, Mark Zelinka, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States and Andrew E Dessler, Texas A&M Univ, College Station, TX, United States
 
The Pattern Effect in GFDL AM4 Examined by a Green's Function Approach (1094379)
Bosong Zhang, Princeton University, Princeton, United States, Ming Zhao, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States and Zhihong Tan, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
 
Projected future warming in high climate sensitivity models is potentially overestimated based on an emergent constraint by seasonal evolution of extratropical low clouds (1101261)
Xianan Jiang1, Hui Su2, Jonathan H. Jiang3, Joao Teixeira4 and J David Neelin1, (1)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (2)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States, (3)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, (4)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States
 
Decomposing the links between clouds and the large-scale tropical circulation (1102998)
Levi Glenn Silvers, Stony Brook University, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook, United States and Kevin A Reed, Stony Brook University, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook, NY, United States
 
Why Don't We Know the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity? (1115677)
Mark Webb, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom and Kate Marvel, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States
 
Emergent Constraints on Climate Sensitivity Based on Recent Warming are Biased Low by Sea-Surface Temperature Pattern Effects (Invited) (1123114)
Kyle Armour1, Cristian Proistosescu2, Yue Dong3, Lily Hahn1, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth4, Andrew Pauling1, Robert Jnglin Wills4, Timothy Andrews5, Malte F Stuecker6, Stephen Po-Chedley7, Ivan Mitevski3, Piers Forster8 and Jonathan M Gregory9, (1)University of Washington, Seattle, United States, (2)University of Illinois Urbana‐Champaign, Champaign, United States, (3)Columbia University, New York, United States, (4)University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States, (5)Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom, (6)University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, United States, (7)Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States, (8)University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom, (9)National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
 
Antarctic Ice-Sheet Meltwater Reduces Climate Sensitivity and Transient Warming through the Sea-Surface Temperature Pattern Effect (1127250)
Yue Dong, Columbia University, New York, United States, Andrew Pauling, University of Washington, Seattle, United States, Shaina Sadai, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Geosciences, Amherst, MA, United States and Kyle Armour, University of Washington, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences and School of Oceanography, Seattle, United States
 
The Climate Response to the Mt Pinatubo Eruption Does Not Constrain Climate Sensitivity (1132149)
Andrew Pauling, University of Washington, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA, United States, Cecilia M Bitz, University of Washington, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA, United States and Kyle Armour, University of Washington, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences and School of Oceanography, Seattle, United States
 
Non-monotonic climate sensitivity dependence on CO2 due to a North Atlantic pattern effect (1133150)
Ivan Mitevski1, Yue Dong1, Maria Rugenstein2, Clara Orbe3 and Lorenzo M Polvani4, (1)Columbia University, New York, United States, (2)Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Fort Collins, United States, (3)NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States, (4)Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, NY, United States
 
On the prevalence of high climate sensitivity models (1134169)
Haozhe He, University of Miami, Miami, United States, Brian Soden, University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States and Ryan J. Kramer, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States; University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, United States
 
Importance of constraining the pattern effect during the historical period for future temperature projection (Invited) (1135081)
Masahiro Watanabe, University of Tokyo, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, Bunkyo-ku, Japan, Tomoki Saga, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan, Christopher James Smith, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2, United Kingdom and Timothy Andrews, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
 
A 34-year record of proxy-Shortwave cloud albedo from SBUV observations compared with historical/AMIP CESM2 climate model runs (1135637)
Clark j Weaver1,2, Dong Liang Wu3, Gordon J Labow1, David P Haffner4, Pawan K Bhartia1, Ross J Salawitch5, Lauren Borgia6 and Laura McBride6, (1)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (2)Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College PARK, United States, (3)Climate and Radiation Laboratory, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (4)Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, MD, United States, (5)University of Maryland, AOSC and Chemistry, College Park, MD, United States, (6)University of Maryland College Park, Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, College Park, MD, United States
 
Analytical Model explains State-Dependence and Regional Variation of Earth’s Clear-Sky Longwave Feedback (1135789)
Daniel D.B. Koll, Peking University, Beijing, China, Nadir Jeevanjee, Princeton University, Princeton, United States and Nicholas Lutsko, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, CASPO, San Diego, United States
 
Investigating a Warming Rate of the Surface Temperature Trend in East Asia (1141560)
Sae-Yoon Oh1, Sang-Wook Yeh2, in-Hong Park1 and Se-Yong Song2, (1)Hanyang University, Department of Marine Sciences and Convergent Technology, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), (2)Hanyang University, Department of Marine Sciences and Convergent Technology, Ansan, South Korea
 
Understanding the global hydrological cycle response in a carbon dioxide removal scenario based on Earth’s Energy Budget (1141950)
Se-Yong Song and Sang-Wook Yeh, Hanyang University, Department of Marine Sciences and Convergent Technology, Ansan, South Korea
 
CO2-Dependence of the Longwave Clear-Sky Feedback is sensitive to Temperature (1143007)
Yue Xu, Peking University, Bei Jing, China and Daniel D.B. Koll, Peking University, Bei JIng, China
 
Climate feedback to stratospheric aerosol forcing: the key role of the pattern effect (1146522)
Moritz Günther1, Hauke Schmidt1, Claudia Timmreck1 and Matthew Toohey2, (1)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, (2)University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada
 
Examining state dependence of the cloud feedback using a perturbed parameter ensemble (1155873)
Jiang Zhu1, Bette L Otto-Bliesner1, Esther C Brady1, Andrew Gettelman2 and Trude Eidhammer2, (1)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (2)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Longwave spectral radiative feedbacks as revealed from models, two decades of satellite observations, and reanalysis (1161142)
Xianglei Huang, University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, Xiuhong Chen, University of Michigan, Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, Norman G Loeb, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, United States and Seiji Kato, NASA Langley Research Ctr, Hampton, VA, United States
 
Different Drivers of Low Cloud Radiative Feedbacks and their Uncertainty in Historical and Future Simulations (1161240)
Rachel Tam, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Department of Atmospheric Science, Urbana, United States, Cristian Proistosescu, University of Illinois Urbana‐Champaign, Champaign, United States and Timothy A Myers, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States
 
Statistical properties of internal climate variabilities for studying climate changes and potential emergent constraints (1163318)
Chengxing Zhai1, Jonathan H. Jiang1, Hui Su2 and Seungwon Lee3, (1)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, (2)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States, (3)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Burbank, CA, United States
 
Climate and Climate Sensitivity to Greenhouse Gas Forcing Under a Range of Ocean Circulations (1168500)
Sarah Ragen, University of Washington, School of Oceanography, Seattle, United States, Robert Fajber, University of Washington, Seattle, United States, Kyle Armour, University of Washington, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences and School of Oceanography, Seattle, United States and Aaron Donohoe, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
 
The radiative feedback continuum from Snowball Earth to an ice-free hothouse (1168865)
Ian Eisenman, University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, United States and Kyle Armour, University of Washington, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences and School of Oceanography, Seattle, United States
 
Learning the Pattern Effect Using Model-Data Fusion: Observationally Constrained Green’s Functions in a Hierarchical Bayesian Framework. (1169949)
Madeline Stover, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Urbana, United States and Cristian Proistosescu, University of Illinois Urbana‐Champaign, Champaign, United States
 
Characterizing ENSO-induced Variability in Top of Atmosphere Radiation (1171524)
Tyler Hanke, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Urbana, United States, Cristian Proistosescu, University of Illinois Urbana‐Champaign, Champaign, United States, Malte F Stuecker, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, United States, Aaron Donohoe, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States and Ryan Scott, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, United States
 
Using paleoclimate data to constrain clouds and convective parameterizations in the GISS E2.1 climate model (1172206)
Michael L Griffiths, William Paterson University, Department of Environmental Science, Wayne, United States, Riovi Ramos, William Paterson University of New Jersey, Wayne, United States, Allegra N. LeGrande, NASA GISS 568, New York, NY, United States, Gregory Elsaesser, Columbia University/NASA GISS, Dept. of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, United States, Daniel Litchmore, Columbia University of New York, New York, NY, United States, Jessica Tierney, University of Arizona, Tucson, United States, Francesco S.R. Pausata, University of Quebec in Montreal, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Montreal, Canada and Jesse M Nusbaumer, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
 
Dependence of cloud feedback on Southern Ocean salinity (1173057)
Maofeng Liu1, Brian J. Soden2, Gabriel Andres Vecchi3, Haozhe He2 and Chenggong Wang4, (1)University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, FL, United States, (2)University of Miami, Miami, United States, (3)Princeton University, Department of Geosciences and The High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton, United States, (4)Princeton University, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton, United States
 
The Link Between Ice Nucleation and Climate Sensitivity (1175822)
Zachary McGraw, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States; Columbia University, Applied Mathematics & Applied Physics, New York, United States, Trude Storelvmo, University of Oslo, Department of Geosciences, Oslo, Norway and Lorenzo M Polvani, Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, NY, United States
 
The Impact of the Ocean Heat Fluxes on Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity in the CESM Slab Ocean Model Configuration (1177793)
Cecile Hannay1, Julio T Bacmeister2, Richard B Neale3, Isla Simpson4, Andrew Gettelman5, Brian Medeiros4, David A Bailey3 and Marika M Holland6, (1)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (2)AMP/CGD, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)NCAR, Boulder, United States, (4)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (6)Natl Ctr Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
 
Weaker Marine Low Cloud Response to Ascent Area Sea Surface Temperature in Long-term Warming among CMIP6 Models (1187822)
Mengxi Wu1, Hui Su2, J David Neelin3, Ni Dai4, Leo Donner5, Charles Seman5 and Kathleen A. Schiro6, (1)University of California Los Angeles, Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science & Engineering, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (2)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States, (3)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (4)University of California, Los Angeles, Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science & Engineering, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (5)NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States, (6)University of Virginia, Department of Environmental Sciences, Charlottesville, VA, United States
 
Linkage between the increased tropical rainfall and enhanced eastern equatorial Pacific (1193165)
Hyuna Kim1,2, Axel Timmermann2, Sun-Seon Lee2, Fabian Schloesser3 and Cecilia M Bitz4, (1)Pusan National University, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South), (2)Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, South Korea, (3)University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States, (4)University of Washington, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA, United States
 
The Sea Surface Temperature Pattern Effect in the Last Glacial Maximum Reduces Climate Sensitivity Estimates (1193451)
Vincent Cooper1, Kyle Armour1, Cristian Proistosescu2, Yue Dong3, Philip R Chmielowiec2, Jessica Tierney4, Matthew Osman4, Natalie Burls5, Scott Knapp5, Daniel E Amrhein6 and Gregory J. Hakim1, (1)University of Washington, Seattle, United States, (2)University of Illinois Urbana‐Champaign, Champaign, United States, (3)Columbia University, New York, United States, (4)University of Arizona, Tucson, United States, (5)George Mason University, Fairfax, United States, (6)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
 
Diagnosing the SST contribution to the intermodel spread of climate feedbacks in CMIP6 (1195230)
Chenggong Wang, Princeton University, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton, United States, Brian J. Soden, University of Miami, Miami, United States, Wenchang Yang, Princeton University, Department of Geosciences, Princeton, NJ, United States, Gabriel Andres Vecchi, Princeton University, Department of Geosciences and The High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton, United States and Bosong Zhang, Princeton University, Princeton, United States
 
How radiative feedbacks shape the response of the hydrological cycle to global warming (1195861)
David B Bonan1, Nicholas Siler2, Nicole Feldl3, Gerard Roe4, Kyle Armour4, Ian Eisenman5 and Emma Beer5, (1)California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States, (2)Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States, (3)University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, United States, (4)University of Washington, Seattle, United States, (5)University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, United States
 
Does ECS constrain the temperature change after emissions end? (1198809)
Nathaniel Eli Tarshish, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States, Nadir Jeevanjee, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, United States and Inez Y Fung, UC Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States
 
The Green's Function Model Intercomparison Project (GFMIP) Protocol (1202218)
Jonah Bloch-Johnson, University of Reading, Reading, RG6, United Kingdom, Cristian Proistosescu, University of Illinois Urbana‐Champaign, Champaign, United States, Maria Rugenstein, Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Fort Collins, United States, Marc J. Alessi, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States, Andrew Williams, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, Bosong Zhang, Princeton University, Princeton, United States, Cole Jason, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC, Canada, Chen Zhou, Nanjing University, Department of Geographic Information Science, Nanjing, China, Yue Dong, Columbia University, New York, United States, Ming Zhao, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, Sarah M Kang, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan, Korea, Republic of (South) and Jonathan M Gregory, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
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