A088
Subseasonal to Seasonal Climate Prediction, Processes, and Applications

Session ID#: 161485

Session Description:
Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction--2 weeks to a season ahead--fills the gap between weather and seasonal-decadal climate predictions. S2S predictions provide forecasts of temperature and precipitation, as well as early warning of high-impact events such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, heat and cold waves, and their compound impacts on society. 

This session welcomes contributions on all aspects of S2S science, including physical mechanisms (e.g., tropospheric interactions with the ocean/sea-ice, land surface, stratosphere, prognostic aerosols, MJO, ENSO, teleconnections, cross-timescale interactions), model evaluation and diagnostics, multi-model combination, predictability and prediction studies, extreme events, Model Output Statistics (calibration, verification, including Machine Learning), and climate services development (e.g., tailored forecast formats, communication, evaluation, and equality and justice). Contributions making use of the S2S/SubX, UFS and NMME databases are particularly encouraged. We also welcome abstracts on seasonal prediction on the same lines.

Co-Sponsor(s):
  • WCRP: World Climate Research Programme -
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
3337 Global climate models [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4315 Monitoring, forecasting, prediction [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4343 Preparedness and planning [NATURAL HAZARDS]

Primary Convener:  Andrew William Robertson, Columbia University of New York, Palisades, NY, United States
Conveners:  Johnna Infanti, Climate Prediction Center College Park, College Park, United States, Kirsten J Mayer, Colorado State University, Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, United States and Frederic Vitart, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom
Student/Early Career Convener:  Kirsten J Mayer, Colorado State University, Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, United States
 
Connecting Agriculture Stress Index Systems at the Sub-National Level to the Next Generation of Seasonal Climate Forecasts: A Case Study to Transition from Monitoring to Forecasting in Guatemala’s Dry Corridor (1042995)
Diego Pons, Colorado State University, Anthropology and Geography, Fort Collins, CO, United States
 
Unraveling the global teleconnections of Indian summer monsoon clouds: expedition from CMIP5 to CMIP6 (1043464)
Ushnanshu Dutta, Anupam Hazra, Hemantkumar S Chaudhari, Subodh Kumar Saha, Samir Pokhrel and Utkarsh Verma, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India
 
Tropical cyclone precipitation in the S2S models: climatology and skill (1046965)
Jorge Garcia Franco1, Chia-Ying Lee1, Suzana J Camargo2, Michael Tippett3, Andrea Molod4, Young-Kwon Lim5 and Daehyun Kim6, (1)Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, (2)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observat., Palisades, NY, United States, (3)Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, United States, (4)Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (5)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (6)University of Washington Seattle Campus, Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA, United States
 
The 2021 Western North American Heatwave and its Subseasonal Predictions (Invited) (1048940)
Hai Lin, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Meteorological Research Division, Dorval, QC, Canada, Ruping Mo, Meteorological Services of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Vancouver, BC, BC, Canada and Fréderic Vitart, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield, United Kingdom
 
Examining the Physical Mechanisms Connecting Interacting Climate Modes and East Australian Precipitation (1049967)
Chiara Holgate1, Jason Peter Evans2, Andrea Taschetto2, Alexander Sen Gupta3 and Agus Santoso4, (1)Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia, (2)University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia, (3)University of New South Wales, Climate Change Research Centre, Sydney, NSW, Australia, (4)Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and UNSW Climate Change Research Centre, Sydney, NSW, Australia
 
Seasonal Forecast Skill of Extreme European Winter Windstorm Characteristics and their Connection to Large-Scale Modes and Dynamical Forcing Factors (1052836)
Lisa Degenhardt1, Adam A Scaife2 and Gregor C Leckebusch1, (1)University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B15, United Kingdom, (2)Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
 
A New Source of Subseasonal Temperature Prediction over CONUS (1059216)
Paul Buchmann and Timothy M DelSole, George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, VA, United States
 
Elevation Dependence of Seasonal Precipitation Forecast Biases in the Alpine Region (1061799)
Sameer Uttarwar, Anna Napoli, Diego Avesani and Bruno Majone, University of Trento, Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering, Trento, Italy
 
ENSO predictions from the Preliminary UFS Seasonal Forecast System (1067131)
Yuejian Zhu1, Bing Fu1, Hong Guan2, Philip J Pegion3, Avichal Mehra4 and Vijay Tallapragada5, (1)NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD, United States, (2)SRG @ NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD, United States, (3)University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)National Centers For Environmental Prediction-Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, United States, (5)NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD, United States
 
Subseasonal Predictions of Extreme Precipitation over South America from S2S ECMWF Model (1067687)
Iracema FA Cavalcanti, INPE National Institute for Space Research, CGCT/DIMNT, Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil and Naurinete JC Barreto Dr., INPE National Institute for Space Research, CGCT, Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil
 
Development of UFS-based Coupled GEFS for Subseasonal Forecasts (1076122)
Bing Fu1, Yuejian Zhu2, Hong Guan3, Bo Yang4, Eric Sinsky5, Wei Li1, Jiayi Peng1, Xianwu Xue4, Philip J Pegion6, Xinzhong Liang7 and Sanghoon Shin8, (1)IMSG @ NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD, United States, (2)NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD, United States, (3)SRG @ NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD, United States, (4)SRG @ NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, United States, (5)NOAA College Park, College Park, MD, United States, (6)University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, (7)Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center of University of Maryland, Maryland, United States, (8)University of Maryland College Park, College Park, United States
 
Clustering Catastrophic Weather Events from India to Canada Shaped by Madden-Julian Oscillation and La Nina: An Asian/North America Teleconnection (1076692)
Mengqian Lu1, Bin Wang2,3, Ming-Ying Lee4, Zhiling Xie2,3 and Mengxin Pan5, (1)Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, (2)University of Hawaii, Department of Atmospheric Sciences and International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, United States, (3)Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing, China, (4)Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan, (5)Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Hong Kong SAR, China
 
The Effect of Intra-Seasonal Oscillation on Indian Summer Monsoon (1084318)
Anandu Rajeev, Kiranmayi Landu and Keshav Arora, Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar, School of Earth Ocean and Climate Sciences, Bhubaneswar, India
 
Seasonal Forecasting of Subsurface Marine Heat Waves (1086227)
Ronan McAdam, Padova, Padova, ITALY, Simona Masina, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Ocean Modelling and Data Assimilation, Bologna, Italy and Silvio Gualdi, Fondazione CMCC, Bologna, Italy
 
Why do all ENSO Events not lead to Seasonal Extremes in the Indian Summer Monsoon? (1086792)
Priyanshi Singhai1, Arindam Chakraborty2, K. o Rajendran3 and Sajani Surendran3, (1)Indian Institute of Science, Centre for Atmospheric And Oceanic Sciences, Bangalore, India, (2)Indian Institute of Science, Centre For Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Bangalore, India, (3)CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute, Bangalore, India
 
Improving the skill of subseasonal to seasonal wind speed forecasts over India using statistical and AI models (1087167)
Aheli Das, Dondeti Pranay Reddy and Somnath Baidya Roy, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, New Delhi, India
 
Shifts in Global Teleconnections on Arabian Peninsula Precipitation (1088982)
Matthew Francis Horan, University of Tennessee, Bredesen Center for Interdisciplinary Research, Knoxville, TN, United States, Muhammad Adnan Abid, Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics, Earth System Physics, Trieste, Italy and Moetasim Ashfaq, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States
 
Subseasonal Great Plains Rainfall via Remote Extratropical Teleconnections: Application of Theory-guided Causal Networks (Invited) (1092879)
Kelsey Malloy, Miami, FLORIDA, UNITED STATES and Benjamin P Kirtman, University of Miami - RSMAS, Atmospheric Sciences, Miami, FL, United States
 
A Statistical Analysis to Improve Development of a Heat Wave Definition in the Southern Great Plains (1094282)
Taylor M Grace, University of Oklahoma Norman Campus, Norman, OK, United States and Jeffrey B Basara, University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology; School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science, Norman, United States
 
Tools for predicting when the fire season-ending rains will come in Alaska (1099251)
Rick Lader1, Thomas Ballinger2, Uma Suren Bhatt2, Peter Bieniek2, Cecilia Borries Strigle2, Mitchell Burgard1, Elizabeth Fischer1, Joshua Hostler2, Eric Stevens3, Heidi Strader3, Richard Thoman2 and Christine F Waigl4, (1)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, United States, (2)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (3)Alaska Interagency Coordination Center, Fairbanks, United States, (4)University of Alaska Fairbanks, International Arctic Research Center, Fairbanks, United States
 
Causes of Interannual Variability of Summer Precipitation Intraseasonal Oscillation Intensity over Southwest China (1099609)
Yanbo Nie, NZC, IAP, Beijing, China and Jianqi Sun, NZC, IAP, P.O. Box 9804, Beijing, China
 
The Seasonal Teleconnections of the Indian Ocean Dipole to the North Atlantic region (1103382)
Tim Hempel1, Antje Weisheimer2 and Tim Palmer1, (1)University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, (2)University of Oxford, Department of Physics, National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), Oxford, United Kingdom
 
Evaluating the IITM-CFSv2 Extended Range Hindcast Skills for the Kharif Rice Yield Estimation of Warangal District Using DSSAT Crop-Growth Model. (1103924)
Ashok Karumuri1, Hemadri Bhusan Amat1,2, A. Dey3, Sathya Uma Lakshmi Kandasamy4, Dillip Kumar Swain4 and A. K. Sahai3, (1)University of Hyderabad, Centre for Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences (CEOAS), Hyderabad, India, (2)Azim Premji University, Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability, Bangalore, India, (3)Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India, (4)Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Agriculture and Food Engineering, Kharagpur, India
 
Evaluating Medium-range Forecast Performance of Regional-scale Circulation Patterns (1107127)
Omon AIGBOVBOISE Obarein1, Cameron C Lee2, Tyler Eric Smith3 and Scott C Sheridan2, (1)Kent State University Kent Campus, Geography, Kent, United States, (2)Kent State University Kent Campus, Kent, OH, United States, (3)Kent State University Kent Campus, Geography, Kent, OH, United States
 
The Global Hydro-Intelligence Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (GHI-S2S) Forecast System (1107215)
Kristi R Arsenault1, Ryan Zamora2, Sarith P P Mahanama3, Jerry Wegiel4, Sujay V Kumar4, Eric M Kemp4, Augusto Getirana4, Yeosang Yoon5, Abheera Hazra1, Kimberly Slinski6, David M Mocko7 and Jossy P Jacob8, (1)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Hydrologic Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (2)SAIC, Reston, United States, (3)NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (4)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, United States, (5)Northeastern University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Boston, MA, United States, (6)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Hydrological Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, CO, United States, (7)SAIC, Greenbelt, United States, (8)Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, MD, United States
 
Subseasonal Controls of U.S. Landfalling Tropical Cyclones (1109261)
Baoqiang Xiang, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Bin Wang, Univ Hawaii, Honolulu, United States, Wei Zhang, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United States, Lucas Harris, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, United States, Thomas L Delworth, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States, Gan Zhang, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, United States and William Cooke, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
 
The Influence of Stratospheric Circulation Biases on Downward Wave Reflection Events in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecast Models (1111389)
Zachary D Lawrence, CIRES/University of Colorado/NOAA PSL, Boulder, United States, Judith Perlwitz, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, John Albers, CIRES CU-Boulder and NOAA-PSL, Boulder, CO, United States and Nicholas Davis, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Collaborative Role of Warm Pool Edge and Ocean Heat Content in the Development of Extreme El Niño (1112498)
Shuo Fu1, Shineng Hu2 and Xiao-Tong Zheng1, (1)Ocean University of China, College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Qingdao, China, (2)Duke University, Division of Earth and Climate Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment, Durham, NC, United States
 
Subseasonal flash drought forecast skill over the contiguous United States. (1114861)
Hailan Wang, SSAI, Hampton, VA, United States, Di Tian, Auburn University, Auburn, AL, United States and Kyle Lesinger, Auburn University, Auburn, United States
 
Seasonal forecasting of Alaska snowmelt timing for the early wildfire season (1116323)
Peter Bieniek1, Uma Suren Bhatt1, Rick Lader2, Christine F Waigl3, Thomas Ballinger1, Joshua Hostler1, Cecilia Borries Strigle1, Elizabeth Fischer2, Mitchell Burgard2, Heidi Strader4 and Eric Stevens4, (1)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (2)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, United States, (3)University of Alaska Fairbanks, International Arctic Research Center, Fairbanks, United States, (4)Alaska Interagency Coordination Center, Fairbanks, United States
 
Land Initializations Contribute Most to the Sub-seasonal Soil Moisture Forecast Skill in the Agricultural Regions of the United States (1117997)
Yanan Duan, Auburn Univertsity, College of Forestry, Wildlife and Environment, Auburn, United States, Sanjiv Kumar, Auburn University, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn, United States and Jadwiga Richter, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Comparison of March-initialized seasonal forecasts and May-initialized seasonal forecasts for the Alaska fire season (1118344)
Cecilia Borries Strigle1, Uma Suren Bhatt1, Peter Bieniek1, Heidi Strader2, Eric Stevens2, Alison S York3 and Robert Ziel4, (1)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (2)Alaska Interagency Coordination Center, Fairbanks, United States, (3)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Alaska Fire Science Consortium, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (4)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, United States
 
Attribution of North American Subseasonal Precipitation Prediction Skill (1127605)
Lantao Sun, Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, CO, US, Martin P Hoerling, NOAA, Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, Jadwiga Richter, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, Andrew Hoell, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, Arun Kumar, NOAA/NCEP, College Park, MD, United States and James W Hurrell, Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, CO, United States
 
On Developing Seasonal Predictions of Lightning Likelihood in Alaska (1128246)
Joshua Hostler1, Thomas Ballinger1, Peter Bieniek1, Uma Suren Bhatt1, Cecilia Borries Strigle1, Mitchell Burgard2, Jonathan Chriest3, Elizabeth Fischer4, Rick Lader5, Zachary Parish6, Eric Stevens7, Heidi Strader7, Richard Thoman1 and Christine F Waigl8, (1)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (2)USDA Forest Service, Kalispell, United States, (3)National Weather Service Alaska, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (4)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, United States, (5)International Arctic Research Center, Fairbanks, United States, (6)United States, (7)Alaska Interagency Coordination Center, Fairbanks, United States, (8)University of Alaska Fairbanks, International Arctic Research Center, Fairbanks, United States
 
A Multivariate Bias Correction Algorithm for Climate Model Predictions and Projections (1134891)
Carlos H Ribeiro Lima, UNB University of Brasilia, Asa Norte, Brazil and Hyun-Han Kwon, Sejong University, Civil Eng, Seoul, South Korea
 
A Metric to Evaluate Climate Models' Applicability for Extreme Event Prediction (1136305)
Mala Virdee1, Carl Henrik Ek2, Markus Kaiser1 and Emily Shuckburgh3, (1)University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom, (2)University of Cambridge, Computer Science and Technology, Cambridge, United Kingdom, (3)NERC British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom
 
Understanding Lead Times of Warm Water Volumes to ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (1136642)
Sen Zhao1, Fei-Fei Jin2 and Malte F Stuecker2, (1)University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States, (2)University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, United States
 
Spring Land Temperature in Tibetan Plateau and Global-Scale Summer Precipitation – Initialization and Improved Prediction --The GEWEX/LS4P Phase I Experiment (1138656)
Yongkang Xue, University of California Los Angeles, Department of Geography, and department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, United States, Ismaila Diallo, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States, Aaron Anthony Boone, CNRS, CNRM-Meteo-France, Paris Cedex 16, France, Tandong Yao, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, Yang Zhang, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China, Xubin Zeng, University of Arizona, Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, Tucson, United States, J David Neelin, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, William K-M Lau, University of Maryland, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD, United States; Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College PARK, United States, Peter J van Oevelen, George Mason University Fairfax, Fairfax, VA, United States, Haraprasad Nayak, University of California, Los Angeles, los Angeles, United States, Daniel Klocke, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany and The GEWEX/LS4P Team
 
Diagnostic analysis on Arctic-midlatitude teleconnection associated with the sources of predictability in sub-seasonal timescales (1138669)
Ji-Han Sim, Pukyong National University, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South), Ha-Rim Kim, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South) and Baek-Min Kim, Pukyong National University, Pusan, South Korea
 
High mountain late spring land surface and subsurface temperature influence on 1998 summer precipitation prediction (1139638)
Hara Prasad Nayak, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, Yongkang Xue, University of California Los Angeles, Department of Geography, and department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, United States and Ismaila Diallo, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States
 
Long-term forecasting of monthly-mean wind speed at station scale over India using time series forecasting approach (1141723)
Dondeti Pranay Reddy, Arunima Sarkar, Aheli Das and Somnath Baidya Roy, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, New Delhi, India
 
Vertical Mixing as the Key Generation Mechanism of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Associated with Canonical El Niño (1142167)
Kouya Nakamura1, Shoichiro Kido2 and Tomoki Tozuka1, (1)The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, (2)JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan
 
Evaluating the role of model choice in Sub seasonal to Seasonal predictions for forecast uptake over Southern Africa (1144789)
Shakirudeen Abimbola Lawal, Climate Systems Analysis Group, Rondebosch, South Africa and Bruce Hewitson, University of Cape Town, Climate System Analysis Group, Cape Town, South Africa
 
Impact of Eurasian autumn snow on the winter North Atlantic Oscillation in seasonal forecasts of the 20th century (1145736)
Martin Wegmann, EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland, Yvan Orsolini, Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Kjeller, Norway, Antje Weisheimer, University of Oxford, Department of Physics, National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), Oxford, United Kingdom, Bart van den Hurk, Deltares, Delft, Netherlands and Gerrit Lohmann, Alfred Wegener Institute for P, Bremerhaven, Germany
 
Role of ENSO teleconnection for skillful subseasonal to seasonal prediction of western North America surface air temperature (1145939)
Chang-Hyun Park1, Jung Choi1, Seok-Woo Son2 and Daehyun Kim3, (1)Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), (2)Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea, (3)University of Washington Seattle Campus, Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA, United States
 
An Updated NMME-based Hybrid Prediction System for North Atlantic Hurricane Season Activity (1147219)
Daniel S Harnos, Climate Prediction Center/NCEP, College Park, United States and Matthew Rosencrans, Climate Prediction Center/NCEP, College Park, MD, United States
 
Monthly precipitation forecasting model for policy makers in Thailand using explainable deep learning (1147765)
Kiyoharu Kajiyama, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, JAPAN and Shinjiro Kanae, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tokyo, Japan
 
Climate Change Aware Calibration of Seasonal Forecasts from the North America Multi-Model Ensemble (1148887)
Dan C Collins1, Emerson Lajoie1, Johnna Infanti2, Yawen Shao3, Andrew Schepen4 and Q. J. WANG3, (1)Climate Prediction Center College Park, College Park, MD, United States, (2)Climate Prediction Center College Park, College Park, United States, (3)The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia, (4)CSIRO Land and Water, Dutton Park, Australia
 
Consolidation of Monthly and Seasonal Forecast Tools at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (1151710)
Daniel Barandiaran, NOAA College Park, College Park, United States
 
The predictability and representation of Indian monsoon low-pressure systems in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal prediction models (1152014)
Akshay Deoras1, Kieran Hunt2 and Andrew G Turner2, (1)University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, Reading, United Kingdom, (2)National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
 
On the seasonal prediction and predictability of winter temperature swing index over North America (1155763)
Xiaosong Yang1, Thomas L Delworth2, Liwei Jia3, Nathaniel Johnson1, Feiyu Lu3 and Colleen McHugh4, (1)NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States, (2)NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States, (3)NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, (4)Science Applications International Corporation, Reston, VA, United States
 
NMME Model Temperature Trends and Potential for Seasonal Prediction of Characteristics of Daily Temperature (1157452)
Emily J Becker, University of Miami - RSMAS, Miami, FL, United States, Ben P Kirtman, University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Miami, FL, United States and Kathleen Pegion, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States
 
Improving sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast using a time-series transformer (1158112)
Daniel Salles Civitarese, IBM Research Brazil, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, BRAZIL, Akram Zaytar, IBM Research, Africa, Nairobi, South Africa, Etienne Eben Vos, IBM Research, Johannesburg, South Africa, Johannes Schmude, IBM Research, New York, United States, Bianca Zadrozny, IBM Research, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and Campbell Watson, IBM Research, Yorktown Heights, United States
 
Predictability of the Indian Ocean Precipitation and North Atlantic European Circulation Anomalies during Early Winter (1159059)
Muhammad Adnan Abid, Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics, Earth System Physics, Trieste, Italy, Fred Kucharski, Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics, Earth Physics Section, Trieste, Italy and Franco Molteni, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
 
Subseasonal predictability from atmospheric, land, and ocean initial states (1159793)
Jadwiga Richter, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, Anne Sasha Glanville, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States and Sanjiv Kumar, COLA, Boulder, United States
 
Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation in S2S Reforecasts (1159920)
Daniel Simon, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research, Pune, Department of Earth and Climate Science, Pune, India and Neena Joseph Mani, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Pune, Pune, India
 
Process-oriented diagnostics in IMDAA reanalysis during boreal summer monsoon (1164009)
Mohan Thota, National Center for Medium Range weather forecasting, Noida, India, Niranjan Kumar Kondapalli, National center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Noida, India and Raghavendra Ashrit, National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Noida, India
 
Use of METPlus to Evaluate Monthly CFSv2 Data at the Climate Prediction Center (1170840)
Johnna Infanti1, Justin Hicks2, Dan C Collins2, Tara L Jensen3 and John Opatz4, (1)Climate Prediction Center College Park, College Park, United States, (2)Climate Prediction Center College Park, College Park, MD, United States, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
 
Sub-seasonal convective precipitation forecast evaluation at the Arabian Peninsula through convective-permitting modeling (1174162)
Hsin-I Chang1, Thang Luong2, Christopher L. Castro3, Christoforus Bayu Risanto4, Hari Prasad Dasari2 and Ibrahim Hoteit2, (1)University of Arizona, Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, Tucson, AZ, United States, (2)King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia, (3)University of Arizona, Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, Tucson, United States, (4)University of Arizona, Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, Tucson, AZ, United States
 
Subseasonal Cyclogenesis Number Predictions in the East Pacific Using Random Forests (1175157)
Zaibeth Carlo-Frontera, Colorado State University, Atmospheric Sciences, Fort Collins, United States, Elizabeth A Barnes, Colorado State University, Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, United States and Eric D Maloney, Colorado State University, Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, CO, United States
 
Predictability of Southwestern United States Precipitation from non-ENSO Drivers and their Interactions with ENSO (1178147)
Cameron Dong, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States, Yannick Peings, University California Irvine, Earth System Science, Irvine, CA, United States and Gudrun Magnusdottir, University of California Irvine, Earth System Science, Irvine, CA, United States
 
Major Climate Variability and Natural Factors in Boreal Winter (1178877)
Indrani Roy, University College London, London, United Kingdom
 
The cost of initialization shock for ENSO prediction (1182167)
Nathan J L Lenssen1,2, Lisa M Goddard2, Pedro DiNezio1, Yochanan Kushnir3, Simon J Mason2 and Matthew Newman4, (1)University of Colorado at Boulder, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, United States, (2)International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, United States, (3)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, (4)University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/PSL, Boulder, United States
 
Causal Pathways of Tropical Cyclone–ENSO Interaction (1184872)
Samuel Bartusek, Columbia University, Earth and Environmental Sciences, New York, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States and Tess Wei-Ping Jacobson, Columbia University of New York, Earth and Environmental Sciences, New York, United States; Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States
 
Modeling the Impact of Late Spring Tibetan Plateau Land Surface Temperature Anomaly on Summer Extreme Precipitation Predictions (1190183)
Ismaila Diallo, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, University Park, PA, United States, Yongkang Xue, Univ California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States and Chris E Forest, Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, University Park, PA, United States
 
The CPC Global Tropics Hazards Outlook: Background, current operational products and work to transition to a probabilistic format targeting the Week 2-3 period (1190732)
Jon Gottschalck1, Lindsey N Long2, Nicholas Novella1 and Adam Allgood3, (1)Climate Prediction Center College Park, College Park, MD, United States, (2)Climate Prediction Center College Park, College Park, United States, (3)NOAA College Park, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, United States
 
Extended predictability skill of ENSO using a multi-model dataset with an ensemble model output statistical approach (1192339)
Carlos M. Carrillo, Cornell University, Earth and Atmospheric Science, Ithaca, NY, United States and Toby Ault, Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Ithaca, NY, United States
 
Resampling Local Variability in Seasonal Forecast for Small-Scale Agricultural Decisions. (1197738)
Muhammad Rezaul Haider, University of Connecticut, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs, CT, United States and Malaquias Peña, Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Storrs, CT, United States
 
Characterizing the observed seasonal evolution of the diurnal cycle of Florida (1198258)
Carly Narotsky, Florida State University, Tallahassee, United States and Vasubandhu Misra, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, United States
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